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GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK FEBRUARY 13, 2008 by Steve Zacks WEEK SIX IN REVIEW When is an Underlay not an Underlay There was a time when a horse that was low odds on the morning line which opened up with only tepid action on the tote board was deemed to be dead on the board. At certain meets, late money could be the more significant. This was particularly true during the Saratoga meet when the OTB money went in on the first two flashes and then the track money came in later on. Nowadays money comes from many sources and early money, while usually meaningful, often has little impact on the final odds as so much money flows through from other sources late in the betting. The absence of early money on a horse that should take some can still be deemed a negative. The smart modern player has learned to take a somewhat different view of the bet-down horse nowadays. Depending on the quality of the morning line, the 10-1 horse that opens at sits on the tote board at 4- or 5-1 after taking money steadily may in fact be an overlay and not an underlay! (Obviously the presence of one or more of these runners in a race will have some effect on the odds of the favorite and may explain why he appears to be tepidly bet.) This assessment presumes that in many of these instances the insiders are seriously involved in the betting circles. The money that is making this long shot-appearing 10- or 15-1 shot 4- or 5-1 is frequently "informed" inside money, not crazy money chasing a dream payoff. The key fact is that in these instances the money itself is a reflection of inside information. If you like to believe that the game is clean then it could be that a good horseman/trainer has located the source of a problem and made the necessary and legitimate changes in shoeing, kosher veterinary treatment or whatever to improve the condition of the runner and/or simply that a top performance is anticipated in today's race. If you believe that there are funny things going on, and it is hard for many of us not to these days, then whatever "they do" has been done and "they" think the horse will win. If that is the case and the stable is one of those "super" stables, then perhaps the horse is an overlay and not an underlay at 4- or 5-1! WHITE SPOT (Trippi) provided a perfect example of this concept in Monday's 3RD race. The sophomore colt had made one start in Canada last spring and then one in the second week of the current meet. He either encountered trouble or was given a test drive in his first Florida race; he was both using Lasix and negotiating one turn for the first time following an eight-month absence. He was 30-1 in that 12-horse field in which he wound up a supposedly troubled fifth. He was listed at 15-1 in the morning line but opened well below that and always stayed at 5-1 or better. While others in the field with many first-time starters may have been suspect, he was always bet as if somebody expected a much better race than appeared on the surface. He worked hard for the win, not disappointing his backers; though if you liked the horse before the betting began, you would certainly have been surprised and disappointed at the short price. The betting suggested something was up. It was too! At $8.80 was he an underlay, or did the show of money say that the morning line was wrong, and maybe he should have been 2-1? The Pick-3s from races 1 and 2 with this horse paid better than the one that started in race 3! Keep an open mind and a keen eye for what appears to be solidly overbet runners. Maybe somebody in the know is trying to tell you something! Interesting Stats for Week Six Winners The following figures are taken from my personal data base (occasional adjustments are made). The first figures are for this week's races. The following number in [square brackets] is the figure for the meet to date. Number of Races this Week: 56 races [326]. Winners: Ran Last At: Calder -- 9 [104]; Gulfstream -- 36 [91]. Winners: Stabled At: Gulfstream -- 19 [118]; Calder -- 19 [101]; Payson Park -- 3 [16]; Palm Beach Downs -- 2 [11]; Palm Meadows -- 12 [74]. Winners: Days Since last Race: within 14 days -- 4 [38]; 15-30 days -- 23 [112]; 31-90days -- 24 [139]; 91+ days -- 3 [20]; first-time starters -- 2 [12]. Winners: Re Their Works: worked since last race -- 44 [234]; worked 6 furlongs or farther -- 1 [17]; one work of at least 5 furlongs -- 21 [108]; worked within five days -- 12 [69]; either six or seven days before the race -- 10 [77]. Winners: In Shape: Using at least one up-close call in the preceding start as a sign of being in shape -- 34 [200]; repeaters -- 11 [50]. Winners: Running Style: Early: (within two lengths at either or both of the first two calls, sprint or route) turf -- 6 [27] of 14 [95]; dirt -- 35 [182] of 168 and [231]. Winners: Surface Changes: 11 [50]; off artificial surfaces --1 [12]. Winners: Class Changes: numbered -- 35 [205]; dropped -- 19 [134], rose -- 16 [71] [last-out winners: 11; 11 rose in class!]; msw to mcl -- 5 [16}; drop from stakes -- 3 [22]. Winners Distance Changes: 24 [125]; shortened up -- 9 [58] and stretched out --15 [67] (a furlong or more and/or added or dropped a turn). DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (2/6) The highlights of the first day of week six were a couple of sophomore maiden specials. There were three starter allowances, with one $20 winner and one at $15. I checked my database for 1994 and 1995 and noted that Danny Hurtak, who won his sixth race today, won three over the entire meet in 1994 and six for all of 1995. This reflects one of the changes in the meeting, with many more races suited to the regular Florida-based runners now than in the past. The players had an interesting decision to make when playing today's 9TH race. It was a $25K maiden claimer going five furlongs on turf. There were a couple of horses dropping with some hints of form, but there were no standouts. The favorite was 2-1 and there were two others bet down to 4-1. The interesting horse, and eventual winner, in the race was a New York-bred JADE PINK (Dr Fong). He and several others were turfing for the first time. The favorite was vulnerable; I thought that if a first-time starter could run, she could win. But if she could run, why would you pay money to ship her to Florida to run her for a $13K purse when maidens in NY run for $40K plus and maiden claimers for about twice the amount of today's purse? Her pedigree was tepid for turf according to the Ultimate PPs; she was the first foal of a winner and her sire (a son of Kris S.) had only limited starters and limited success on turf. Trainer Jason Servis wins with firsters 17 percent of the time, but had had no previous success first-time on the turf. She did have a couple of turf breezes and a decent five-furlong work 10 days out. Had she been 10-1 or higher, I would have been tempted, but not at odds any lower than that. Trainer Servis must have been aware that she needed turf and decided not to wait for spring. She was a homebred and they could have been trying to establish credentials for the young sire and dam. Normally if it makes sense when viewed from the bottom line, then it is worth a good look. This did not! Trying to read intent and especially when there is a significant difference in the size of the purse, makes some decisions more complicated. Then again, if you try to look at the issue from all sides, you might find other reasons to take a chance. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf was rated firm with the rails at 0 and 84 feet. Three of the four winners did the bulk of their running in the stretch. The up-front runner pressed a modest pace and finished strong. The dirt was fast and seemed to play to fast paces; the quality of the fields may have had much to do with the slowish finishing times more than the track surface. All parts of the running surface were used by today's dirt winners. The outside runners on the turn were in hand for the most part. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Jose Lezcano and Cornelio Velasquez won a pair each, and Eibar Coa notched the hat trick. Kirk Ziadie and Todd Pletcher were the only top trainers to add to their win totals today. DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (2/7) There four non-claiming races on today's card to go with four turf events. Once again, only one winner paid more than $20. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf was rated firm and the rails were either at 84 or 0 feet. Once again my perception is that the horses and riders are the determining factors, along with racing luck, much more than the placement of the rails. To the extent that that factor influences what riders do, then it may have some impact. Considering three of the four turf winners were odds-on and the other was midpriced in a contentious race, it may have been the match-up. Track was fast with most winners being within proximity of the pace for most of their races. Why there are not more two-turn races on dirt miffs me. For sure, the extra sixteenth of a mile is significant to some but if a horse wants two turns, it is unlikely that the extra sixteenth will stop him any more than the extra turn and extra sixteenth will stop them from going a one-turn mile to a two-turn mile and a sixteenth! Trainers and Jockeys of Note Races were won by nine different trainers and jockeys. Pletcher and Bill Mott added to their totals; so did Coa, John Velazquez and Kent Desormeaux. Horses or Races of Interest Pletcher unleashed what looked to be a promising prospect in the 7TH race. UNDERSTATEMENT (Distorted Humor) showed modest early speed to clear easily. With minimum pressure from John V he took off in the stretch, with a final quarter in 23.4 seconds. That is race horse time for a first-time starter even if the early pace was un-pressured and not too fast. He cost more than a million dollars. Time will tell if he is worth the purchase price, but it was a very encouraging debut. DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (2/8) It was not an overly interesting Friday card, with the weekend cards holding much more promise. There was a bomb in the first topping $150, and a couple other winners paid more than $20. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf was rated firm and there were no rails. The track was rated fast, but cheaper races meant that there was nothing spectacular to hone in on. The inside was okay, speed was okay, but so was outside and closers. When jockeys fail to ride the turn properly the horses seem to get tired late in the stretch. Chart readers will notice how often horses open up in early stretch and then are all out or fully extended to hold on. If you are good visually and watch replays, notice how horses that continue on in the stretch are ridden around the turn as opposed to those that fade. If you notice anything with any degree of consistency, you will understand what has been happening. You will also note that most of the top riders understand what they have to do! That is simply to stay in hand on the turn and not force the issue. Trainers and Jockeys of Note David Fawkes was the training star of the day with a couple of wins. Pletcher notched one too. Eddie Castro was the only two-time jockey winner. DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (2/9) The rains came nearing post time, leading to a "good" track for races one and two and slop for the remaining races on the program. That forced management to take races off the turf and ruined what was otherwise a promising day of racing. There was a $50 winner -- a tough pick; a $38 winner that may have been a bit of an overlay due to her Florida connections; and three other double-digit payoffs -- each had something in its favor, and at least two were not obvious, though one was winning for the fourth time in the last five races. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf: off. The dirt was "good" and "sloppy." I found the dirt a bit of a tough read today. I suspect it might have a lot to do with the match-ups and, with four races coming off the grass and certain trainers using these races as a testing ground, reading the surface can be difficult. Seven of the 10 races were won by horses within two lengths at one or more of the first two calls. That is pretty much normal. However, there were several horses that made the lead on the inside and then faded badly. If several had not won with inside trips, then that would have been an easy read; but at least a couple saved ground and did their serious running inside in the run to the wire. Horses rallying on the outside were winning as well. Perhaps it was just a fair track overall, with the horses that liked the track winning the races from everywhere. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Races were won by ten different trainers, none from the top of the list. Coa won a couple to extend his lead on top of the list. Prado won two, career victories 5,998 and 5,999; he narrowly missed winning number 6,000 in the Forward Gal (G2) when he was nosed at the wire. Horses or Races of Interest AFRICAN VIOLET (Lemon Drop Kid) made a quick explosive move to take command of today's 6TH race, which had been taken off the turf. While it is difficult to assess the significance of much on an off racing surface, she did display the quickness and agility normally associated with a "nice kind of" turf runner. The fact that it was neither a fast-paced or fast race somewhat tempers the enthusiasm, but she will be worth watching when she gets to try that surface. She has the pedigree to run long and could be any kind on turf or dirt. Both BSHARPSONATA (Pulpit) and Keep the Peace (Touch Gold) turned in strong performances in the Forward Gal. The former was winning for the fifth time in eight career starts and proved she could handle the wet surface as well as the turf, the surface of her three stakes victories; she was shortening up as well. She was game and determined in running through a small hole on the inside of Keep the Peace, who ran fast throughout in her first stakes attempt and narrowly missed getting the nod. DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY (2/10) Track was rated good for the day's 10 races, all on the dirt. For the most part, the winners made sense. There were four maiden races today. Of the other six races for winners, all six of the winners had one or more victories in their prior five starts! That is frequently a significant positive handicapping factor. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Races were off the grass for the second day in a row. Nine of the 10 winners were within two lengths at the first two calls of their races. Most races were won by one of the logical horses and the public may have misread the improvement factor for a young runner dropping from a stakes in his return in another. Once again, it is easy to say the track favored speed -- it usually does -- but I still see it as playing fair, with horses able to make moves both inside and out. For the most part, I have had good success paying more attention to the horse, the rider and the match up and not worrying too much about the track surface. It is not like Gulfstream was in the old days! Trainers and Jockeys of Note Eddie Plesa Jr. and Wayne Catalano scored two victories apiece. Jorge Chavez and Prado won two each; Prado notched his 6,000th career victory today. Coa solidified his lead with another hat trick. Horses or Races of Interest HEY BYRN (Put It Back) turned in a powerful-looking performance when returning from a layoff and dropping out of a stakes race into a preliminary allowance company. The race was run over a somewhat off racing surface, but the push-button acceleration on the turn, and the ease of his victory, gives one reason to pause. It was the fastest mile of the day by one tick, and he had an easy time of it; the only other mile that came close to that was that of the eight-time winner CLERPARK (Deputy Minister) in a $25K claimer. I will be interested in Hey Byrn next time out! The latter may worth a look too, though he is not likely to offer much in the wagering department. DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (2/11) Track was back to fast. Low odds were the order of the day with none paying in double digits. All in all, it was an unexciting day with no star performances and too many low-odds winners. Five of the seven winners of non-maiden races had recorded at least one victory in their preceding five starts. Winners tend to win again. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The turf was rated good and the rails were moved to the 84-foot position. The track was fast. Once again, all of the dirt winners were close to the pace (within two lengths) for both of the first two calls. On turf, only one came from far back, and that was one taking a big class drop. I am still of the same opinion: while if I had a choice of designing my bets, I would always choose a horse with tractable, tactical speed, and I would bet any horse that I thought could win, regardless of his running style. The proviso is that I would prefer to have a live rider astride my chosen steed. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Peter Walder won two on the day to tie for the lead in the trainer standings with Mott. It is very interesting to observe how the flow of the condition book can often be the cause of trainer hot streaks. Of course in Mott's case, when races come off the grass, even if he allows them to run, he is less likely to perform at his peak. Coa continues his successful run widening his lead atop the jockey standings. Despite quiet weeks, Velazquez and Desormeaux maintained their positions in second and third, respectively. Lezcano is in fourth with Elvis Trujillo and Prado tied for fifth. Cornelio Velasquez is a close-up seventh. These top riders account for more than half the wins at the meet to date, an occurrence which is not out of the norm.
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