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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 30, 2008 by Dick Powell Dream Rush (Wild Rush) made her return to the races off a 212-day layoff for her new owner, Minor Stables, who purchased her last November for $3.3 million, in the Vagrancy H. (G2) at Belmont Park on Sunday. The front-end winner of the Prioress (G1) and the Test S. (G1) last year, she came into the race off a series of strong workouts for Rick Violette, who continues to train her. The lone speed in just about any race she shows up in, Dream Rush showed her customary early lick by going quickly to the front for Eibar Coa. After a first quarter in :22.04, she cruised to the top of the stretch with a four-length lead in a modest :45.22. Violette wins at a 21 percent rate in his first start off a long layoff, so with a soft second quarter and her Grade 1 back class, there was no reason to think that Dream Rush would come up short in the stretch in the 6 1/2-furlong sprint. However, if you watched the early races on the Belmont main track, you had reason to worry. Visually, it looked like the water truck had a flat tire and the track was very dry and dusty. Horses were kicking up clouds of dirt and the running times were unusually slow. Not that I'm complaining, but it was noticeable and you had to take it into account in your handicapping. Even with Dream Rush far in front nearing the eighth-pole, her lead was not safe. She began to shorten stride as the deep, tiring track began to take its toll. The only filly that was making up any ground was LOOKY YONDER (Johannesburg), who was making a last-to-first move with Garrett Gomez. In the final yards, Dream Rush was as game as could be but there was no stopping Looky Yonder, who caught her in the final yards and won going away by a length. The final time for the Vagrancy, 1:17.63, was the slowest since the race was shortened from 7 to 6 1/2 furlongs 10 years ago. It was Looky Yonder's first stakes win and was part of a spectacular recent run of success for Johannesburg, who has suddenly got hot as a sire. On Monday, the Metropolitan H. (G1) was run for the 115th time and the main track continued to play slow and kind to closers. The public sent off Commentator (Distorted Humor) as the 11-10 favorite off two gigantic wins at Gulfstream this winter for Nick Zito. An all-or-nothing horse for most of his career, he showed more flexibility in his last start when he actually rated early before drawing off to a 13 3/4-length win in the Richter Scale H. (G2) going seven furlongs. Undefeated in three starts at a mile, he figured to play catch me if you can with the modest field of nine. As expected, the New York-bred seven-year-old gelding went right to the front in the long run down the Belmont backstretch. Since being ridden by Johnny Velazquez, Commentator seems to be able to ration his speed effectively. He ran his first quarter in :22.48, but looked relaxed doing it. Unfortunately, the possibility of opening a clear lead and getting a breather around the turn evaporated when Javier Castellano moved First Defence (Unbridled's Song) early and went up to stalk Commentator. The half was a quick :44.52 and Commentator cruised on with First Defence in hot pursuit. Considering how slow the main track had been playing, the amount of early energy used by Commentator was amazing but he showed no signs of slowing down. He hit the top of the stretch with a half-length lead but finally put away First Defence nearing the eighth-pole. While all this was going on, Alan Garcia moved DIVINE PARK (Chester House) four wide at the top of the stretch and took dead aim on the leaders. The winner of the Westchester H. (G3) in his last start going a mile while earning a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 109, First Defence collared Commentator in the deep stretch and pulled away to a two-length victory. Lord Snowdon (Seeking the Gold) rallied from dead last to get third. For Divine Park, it cemented his position as a premier miler with wins now in the Met Mile, the Westchester and the Withers (G3). He's won his last three starts for Kiaran McLaughlin, and it will be interesting to see if he stretches him out in the Whitney H. (G1) at Saratoga. He won his only two-turn start two races back and certainly has the pedigree to stretch out. For Commentator, it was a crushing defeat in a race that Zito had pointed him toward all year. Even with the early pressure from First Defence, he still would have won had it not been for the tiring track. After six furlongs in 1:09.61, he took more than 27 seconds to run his quarter mile. In the history of the Met Mile, the 1:36.91 final time was the second slowest in the past 50 runnings and on a different day on a different track, Commentator probably would have held on. He was gallant in defeat and Zito said the Whitney -- a race that Commentator won in 2005 -- would be his next start. When handicapping in the future, give some extra value to horses that raced on or near the lead and held on well from last Sunday and Monday and discount the efforts of those that rallied from far back to run well over a track that favored that running style.
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