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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 8, 2008 by Dick Powell It's a strange world we now live in. It was only a few decades ago that a strong nine-furlong race would be viewed as being perfect to set up a horse for a 10-furlong race three weeks later. Not these days, though. BIG BROWN (Boundary) might not be back to his spring form that saw him romp in the Florida Derby (G1), Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1), but his win in the Haskell (G1) last Sunday should be good enough to set up a run at the Travers S. (G1) three weeks later. The "old school" way of looking at a race where the winner comes off a layoff, wins the race and then gets tired is that he needed the race and should be much fitter next time out. Thankfully, trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. was not outfitted with a live microphone in the first quarter-mile of the Haskell or we would have heard expletives that have never been strung together before. Big Brown broke beautifully from post 4 and looked like he could make the lead going into the first turn -- always a positive at Monmouth Park -- but quickly Kent Desormeaux wrapped up on him as Coal Play (Mineshaft) took the lead. Big Brown started to resist by throwing his head when not allowed to do what he wanted and Desormeaux was able to steer him to the outside and take up a stalking position around the first turn. Would have loved to have been a fly on Dutrow's wall as all this was happening. Coal Play, the apparent rabbit for his more regarded stablemate Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft), cruised through a half in :46.59 and six furlongs in 1:10.85. Desormeaux looked like he was asking him for run around the far turn and was not getting much response. For about a 100 yards nearing the top of the stretch it looked like Big Brown was not going to catch Coal Play and might be passed by Cool Coal Man. But he grinded along and went by Coal Play while drifting out badly. His final margin was 1 3/4 lengths and the final time of 1:48.31 earned him a BRIS Speed rating of 110. Ordinarily, you could assume that Big Brown is back and about to regain his early season form, but the visual of him drifting badly in the stretch was not pretty. Yes, it was a sign of him being dead tired and winning on guts. But, it usually is a sign of looming physical ailments that may not have surfaced yet. This was not running greenly when a horse runs erratically through the stretch. This was a horse that was bearing out badly in the stretch despite Desormeaux's efforts to rein him in. I'm not making any predictions as to where Big Brown will run next other than the Travers is off the radar. Just like major league baseball starting pitchers need at least four days rest in between starts, today's equine stars need as much rest as possible. One start that Big Brown could make if his connections were so inclined is the Woodward S. (G1) at Saratoga on August 30. Run at nine furlongs for three-year-olds and up, it was announced on Tuesday that 2007 Horse of the Year CURLIN (Smart Strike) will make his next start in the Woodward. It looks like the foray to Paris for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) is history as Team Curlin still has trouble deciding whether his second-place finish in the Man o' War Stakes (G1) was indicative of him not liking turf racing. For now, turf racing for Curlin has been put on hold and it's back to the dirt. I don't blame Team Curlin passing on the Arc, but it's disheartening how American horses, with the exception of the races in Dubai, will rarely ship to foreign countries to take on the world's stars. Two years ago, Japanese legend Deep Impact left the cozy confines of Japan and ventured to Paris for the Arc where he finished a close third -- with a better setup he might have won. He lost nothing in defeat, gaining only admiration. There's talk of Curlin trying something radical in his farewell start, but we'll have to wait and see. So Paris' loss is Saratoga's gain and this year's Woodward could be truly memorable if Big Brown's connections would show up. After the Haskell, Dutrow didn't seem too worried about facing Curlin and now that the announcement has been made as to where he will run next there is no excuse not to get in the gate with him. Despite my speculation above, if all is well with Big Brown he has to race Curlin now. Curlin is unlikely to contest the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on a newly installed surface at Santa Anita, so that match-up is out. If co-owner Jess Jackon's "Been there, done that" logic applies to the Classic, it should also apply to the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) which he won last year as well. If Big Brown is ever going to take on Curlin, the Woodward on August 30 is the perfect spot. Whatever was bothering ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) before her last start in the Vanity H. (G1) is a thing of the past. In Saturday's Clement Hirsch H. (G2), the undefeated four-year-old filly was cool as a cucumber going to the post and performed none of the antics she did before the Vanity. Too bad for her seven rivals. Mike Smith had Zenyatta trailing the field early but then began to pick off horses around the far turn. The long-striding filly showed a high degree of athleticism when she split horses at the top of the stretch and blew by the leader with a furlong to go. Her final margin was only a length -- she won the Vanity by a half-length -- but the difference was night and day. Zenyatta, whose final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:41.48, earned a BRIS Speed rating of 103, her second-highest ever, and reversed the downward trend of her two prior starts. A proven commodity on synthetic tracks, it will be interesting to see where she runs next and if she will take on males in the Classic. The Olympics begin this weekend. When watching track and field or swimming, note how many world records are set when the pace is slow. Then, go back to handicapping horses understanding that fast-paced races are the ones that usually result in high Speed figures.
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