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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 31, 2009 by Dick Powell Saratoga Race Course opened for the 141st time on Wednesday, and like other years Mother Nature paid her usual visit. The day started out hot and muggy and the local weather forecasters were mentioning possible severe thunderstorms for the afternoon and even flash flooding. Here's how much rain we have had this year going into the Saratoga meet. I have a four-wheel drive Kubota tractor that almost got stuck in a muddy area on my farm that by July usually sets up like concrete. Upstate New York has been deluged with unseasonably-cold, rainy weather that won't let up. The jetstream is pushing cool air down from Canada that then mixes with hot, moist air resulting in rain and thunderstorms. You would think that summer would eventually come and hot, dry weather would return, but not this year. Luckily on Opening Day, the rain held off to midday and only one race was washed off the turf. It could have been a lot worse and on-track attendance was up 40 percent and on-track handle was up 30 percent since last year's rain began the night before. All this has major ramifications for your Saratoga handicapping. NYRA now generates entries 72 hours in advance so you can get a big head start if you want to. I advise against it because of the crazy weather. On a given day it's hard enough to predict what the weather will be tomorrow; let alone two or three days from now. I try to stick to a regular schedule of handicapping tomorrow's races after today's races have been run. Also, you might want to enter zip code 12866 into various weather web sites but even then it's subject to change. I live 10 miles west of the track and on Tuesday afternoon we had a downpour that lasted about 15 minutes. Ten miles to the east, the track did not get any rain. The best way to gauge weather is to watch a live, simulcast feed. If you make multiple race bets like Pick 4s and Pick 6s, you at least have some protection by a New York State rule that mandates a race be declared an "all" race if it switches surfaces after the pool for that bet closes. Rain or shine, this year's Saratoga meet figures to have the strongest juvenile racing ever seen up here. Last year I said it was the strongest juvenile racing ever seen up here, but this year should be stronger since so many stables did not run their two-year-olds at the recently-concluded Belmont meet and saved them for the Spa. There won't be a lot of previous starts for many of the juveniles but with BRIS past performances that include pedigree data and detailed trainer stats, you should be well armed. It used to be that juvenile turf racing did not take place until the last week of the meet. Now, with turf sprints being all the rage, juveniles have every opportunity to run on the turf going short. And last year, there was a juvenile turf race going 1 1/16 miles as early as August 4. Normally, turf racing hurts filling dirt races since many trainers like to run on turf but at Saratoga there are enough juveniles wanting to run that dirt sprints, turf sprints and two-turn turf races will have no trouble filling. Last fall, NYRA banned the use of mud caulks for all its races so the only shoes that might mean added traction are bend shoes. Pay close attention to the simulcast feed for bend shoe information as Tom Durkin announces it at the start of the post parade for each race and a graphic is displayed when the horses are in the paddock. One major handicapping angle that I have used successfully over the years is the differing profiles on the inner and Mellon turf courses. The inner turf course is seven furlongs long and has very tight turns. Inside trips are the way to go as horses that swing wide turning for home usually spin their wheels for a few strides before finding their best footing. With the tight turns of the inner turf course, prominently placed horses have the edge since they can get to the inside and save ground. It helps to have an athletic horse that can either hug the hedge around the turn or maintain their balance if they have to go wide. Previous talent on the inner turf course is a big plus and having one of New York's better turf riders helps as well. Historically, races on the inner turf course have a higher average win payoff and a lower win percentage of favorites than races run on the Mellon turf course. Thus, you might want to go deeper and spread thinner on a race on the inner turf course than one on the Mellon turf course. The tight turns can lead to bad trips which can lead to more favorites being beaten. The Mellon turf course is a one-mile turf course with wider, sweeping turns. Here, a horse can swing wide at the top of the stretch and maintain its momentum. It is much kinder to horses that have to stalk wide as the horse is only losing ground but not fighting to maintain its balance. Favorites tend to do better on the Mellon turf course and the average win payoff is lower than the inner turf course. If you like a favorite on the Mellon, you have less risk of getting a bad trip than on the inner so you might not need to spread out too much.
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