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POST PARADE JULY 20, 2011 Risk-taking could yield a Horse of the Year title by Vance Hanson With no help whatsoever from any member of the classic generation or from an older male dirt performer, the Horse of the Year debate has started to heat up. The match that ignited the flame was the result of last week's Delaware H. (G2), round six in the long-standing feud between BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) and HAVRE DE GRACE (Saint Liam). As in recent Horse of the Year wars, clear battle lines are being drawn amongst their respective human fan clubs. Given the current paucity of championship-caliber talent among the males of the Thoroughbred species, it's all good and right that the two protagonists in the best rivalry of recent years are on the short list of national championship contenders. And the longer the boys delay in sorting themselves out, the better the prospects will be for the two four-year-old fillies. This is all dependent, of course, on the subsequent actions taken by the fillies' connections. At the conclusion of 1 1/4 miles at Delaware Park, the cumulative results are Blind Luck 4, Havre de Grace 2. That kind of score-keeping, while good in the game of one-upmanship and recording the historical narrative, is faulty in one respect. If each season constitutes a game or set, Blind Luck has already been generously rewarded for her 3-1 "win" over Havre de Grace in 2010. With the slate wiped clean beginning January 1, the score in the race for an Eclipse Award in 2011 is presently tied at 1-1. Unfortunately, the politics of weight has crept its ugly head into what has otherwise been an enjoyable bit of sport. For those partisans keeping track, Blind Luck owns a 2-1 advantage over Havre de Grace when the two have carried an equal impost, while each has arguably benefited once from a weight concession -- Havre de Grace in last fall's Cotillion S. (G2), Blind Luck in the Delaware H. One thing that can not be argued is that at the end of the day there is not much separating these two. In the wake of Havre de Grace's defeat while conceding two pounds in the Del 'Cap, the temptation to blame her loss on the race's handicap conditions has provided the anti-handicap crusaders with their latest round of ammunition. Overlooked, however, is the fact that previous inequities in weight carried between the two were not the result of handicap assignments but of weight allowance concessions built into each race's conditions. If the system of handicaps is arbitrary and capricious, as some have tirelessly argued for years, the system of running major stakes under allowance conditions is no less so. In many cases it is even more pernicious as the current form of the competitors is not taken into account, with fading stars often asked to concede weight to vastly improving up-and-comers based solely on past glories. Until weight-for-age (scale weights) becomes the agreed-upon standard for all graded stakes, the objections of the anti-handicap crowd will continue to fall on these deaf ears. In the aftermath of the Delaware H., the connections of Blind Luck and Havre de Grace began to publicly plot out their next moves. Owner Rick Porter told Daily Racing Form that Havre de Grace would be seriously considered for the September 3 Woodward S. (G1) against the boys, while trainer Jerry Hollendorfer displayed reluctance to pit his filly against males by saying the August 28 Personal Ensign S. (G1) would be Blind Luck's likely next target. The current word on the street, courtesy of the Blood-Horse, is that Porter would entertain the thought of entering Havre de Grace in the Personal Ensign should NYRA double the purse to $600,000, closer if not exactly equal to the Woodward's $750,000 pot. While a seventh meeting in the Personal Ensign between these two titans would, of course, be nice, it is this observer's view that Porter's initial inclination is the right one. With things all square between Blind Luck and Havre de Grace this season, winning the Woodward would be the sort of game-changing move that would swing the momentum back toward Havre de Grace. Indeed, any type of stakes victory against males is a feather in the cap for any female Horse of the Year candidate. Contesting the Woodward would be a bold, decisive move for her connections, who received unwarranted criticism in running Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby (G1) three years ago. If a Horse of the Year title is a primary objective, there is everything to gain and little to lose by taking the Woodward route. We would make the same case to the connections of Blind Luck. By almost any reputable measure, both fillies have demonstrated to be as fast, on average, as their male counterparts this season. Given the state of the older male division, there appears to be no better time to take them on and in one of most prestigious races for older horses on the calendar. The purse is ample, the weight issues non-existent, and the timing seemingly perfect. Given the present circumstances, the total avoidance of males this season by either or both fillies would be a disappointment and a missed opportunity. It would also leave the door open for a male to make a convincing, late-season bid for the gold Eclipse Award. An example of such a male is CAPE BLANCO (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), one of the best horses to race in North America so far this year. In his U.S. debut in the July 9 Man o' War S. (G1), the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt easily dispensed with two-time grass champ Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) by 2 1/4 lengths. More of the same could be on display in the August 13 Arlington Million (G1), a race both horses are expected to contest. An embarrassment of riches in the O'Brien yard has brought Cape Blanco to these shores. Winner last year of the Irish Derby (Ire-G1) and Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1), as well as the Dante S. (Eng-G2) over Workforce (GB) (King's Best), Cape Blanco has been sort of the odd-man out in the Coolmore juggernaut since the arrival of So You Think (High Chaparral [Ire]) from Australia. With So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu [Ire]) and Fame and Glory (Montjeu [Ire]) monopolizing the stables' slots in the biggest European races from 1 1/4 miles to 2 1/2 miles, it was evidently necessary to find a more suitable place for Cape Blanco to make his mark. Prior to the Man o' War, Cape Blanco was placed in what could delicately be described as questionable spots. Far from embarrassed when fourth in both the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) and Prix Ganay (Fr-G1), Cape Blanco proved not to be a synthetic wonder nor much of a lover of the French turf. The latter point was really unnecessary to belabor considering his poor showings in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) and Prix du Jockey-Club (Fr-G1) last season. Even more dubious was Cape Blanco's entry in the Queen Anne S. (Eng-G1) against Canford Cliffs (Tagula) and Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa), two milers of the highest order. Out of his element down the Royal Ascot straight, Cape Blanco showed little in finishing sixth, beaten 16 lengths. If able to rack up several important North American wins while simultaneously avoiding the side-effects of frequent transatlantic trips, Cape Blanco could produce a record worthy of both champion turf male honors and Horse of the Year. If aiming to win the latter award is presently not on his connections' radar, it should be.
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