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POST PARADE AUGUST 3, 2011 Divisional race starting to come into focus by Vance Hanson Far from further muddling the three-year-old championship picture, the results of last weekend's Haskell Invitational (G1) and Jim Dandy S. (G2) actually served to clarify the relative merits of those still remaining in the divisional race. While COIL (Point Given) and STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini) threw their hats into the ring with respective wins in the Haskell and Jim Dandy, the candidacies of others with pretensions to the title took decisive hits. Though at times difficult to hear during the lingering soap opera involving stablemate Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), owner Mike Repole had repeatedly asserted his belief that Stay Thirsty would develop into a top-rate "second season" three-year-old. Those of us who took the colt's performances in the Florida Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1) at face value as indicative of his placing in the sophomore pecking order are having to reconsider our assessment after two highly encouraging efforts in the Belmont S. (G1) and Jim Dandy. Indeed, Stay Thirsty made his rivals look rather ordinary in winning the Jim Dandy by four lengths. Among the vanquished were Dwyer S. (G2) winner DOMINUS (Smart Strike), Peter Pan S. (G2) winner ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor) and Blue Grass S. (G1) winner BRILLIANT SPEED (Dynaformer). Perhaps it is too early to give up completely on either Dominus and Alternation, both of whom could come back in the Travers to face Stay Thirsty. Brilliant Speed might do the same, but it's increasingly apparent the colt doesn't possess the same degree of talent on fast dirt as he does on either grass or synthetic surfaces. From the first crop of 2006 champion three-year-old Bernardini, Stay Thirsty has always had the inherent potential to be a top racehorse. From a pedigree perspective, he always seemed more likely than Uncle Mo to relish the classic distances even if he did not possess his stablemate's raw talent. Though he's now beginning to emerge from Uncle Mo's shadow, one puzzling aspect of his record remains conspicuous. Stay Thirsty looks and acts like one of the best in his division racing in New York, but has looked as feeble as the Jim Dandy also-rans when he's taken his show on the road. Fortunately for him, he has the potential to rack up a couple more important wins sticking close to home before the Breeders' Cup. The style of Coil's victory in the Haskell was very much reminiscent of the one put forth by Lookin at Lucky, trainer Bob Baffert's 2010 three-year-old champ, in last fall's Indiana Derby (G2). Also ridden by Martin Garcia, Lookin at Lucky found himself farther behind the pace than usual (over a muddy track no less) and was forced to circle the field turning for home en route to a convincing win. Coil had to work a bit harder through the Monmouth stretch than Lookin at Lucky, understandable given the higher quality of horseflesh he was facing. But he still gave Baffert some anxious moments after dropping back to last, conceding as much as 7 1/2 lengths to the leaders. That was a highly unusual position to see the colt in, though in retrospect perhaps not too surprising given the removal of blinkers for the Haskell. The least worried of Coil's connections had to have been Garcia, who appears to have winning this way down to a science. Looking very strong passing the quarter pole, Coil still had to take the overland route to get past the opposition, and when he reached the front, had to work a bit to edge past a very determined SHACKLEFORD (Forestry). Whether it was Coil waiting on Shackleford, as Garcia claimed, or Shackleford gamely trying to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, is open to interpretation. A potential meeting between Stay Thirsty and Coil, two sons of Travers winners, in the August 27 Midsummer Derby, promises to be full of high drama and might finally produce a clear leader in the three-year-old championship race. Left in the wake of Coil's Haskell win were the season's two classic winners left in training. Preakness S. (G1) hero Shackleford turned in a courageous performance to miss by a neck, while Belmont winner RULER ON ICE (Roman Ruler) finished third, 2 1/2 lengths behind Coil. In the discussion for Eclipse Award honors, the loss arguably hurt Shackleford's chances a lot more than it did Ruler on Ice's. The general consensus that the upper limit of Shackleford's ability is at distances less than 1 1/4 miles made the Haskell sort of a "must-win" for Shackleford in terms of the championship race given the preponderance of longer races ahead. Granted the loss was narrow, but it was still a loss and his fifth in six stakes appearances this season. In the races left that might determine championship honors -- the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) -- all are at 10 furlongs and probably beyond the scope of the Dale Romans trainee. Races like the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), Indiana Derby or Super Derby (G2) -- all at nine furlongs or less -- might arguably be better fits for Shackleford, but by the same token probably wouldn't earn the colt sufficient quality points in the eyes of the electorate should he win one of them. Sensing the bind Shackleford is in following his loss in the Haskell, Romans is now considering the September 3 Woodward S. (G1) against older horses for the colt's next race. Contested a week after the Travers, the Woodward is at the more favorable distance of 1 1/8 miles. A win against older horses, regardless of how weak the current state of that division presently is, would be a great coup for Shackleford and could conceivably get him back in the discussion for a championship, especially if Stay Thirsty, Coil and Ruler on Ice were all to falter in the Travers. That's a big "if," and the distance concerns for Shackleford going forward after a Woodward victory would still exist. Ruler on Ice seemingly has no distance limitations despite what his pedigree might suggest, and the extra furlong of the Travers should be right up his alley. Like Shackleford, Ruler on Ice remains stuck on one stakes victory for the year, and the Travers appears to be his own make-or-break opportunity to stay in the championship picture. Early-season losses in the Sunland Derby (G3) and Federico Tesio S., while not automatic eliminators by any stretch, still leave the impression that, despite his success in the Belmont, Ruler on Ice might be a slight cut below the cream of the crop. His performance in the Travers will either validate the concerns or silence the critics. Talk of the three-year-old championship race would not be complete without mentioning ANIMAL KINGDOM (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]), the sidelined winner of the Kentucky Derby who ran his last race of the season in the Belmont. While some observers continue to refer him as the clubhouse leader, whatever hold he might arguably have on the divisional leadership is extremely tenuous. It's not impossible to think the state of division will continue to be chaotic, thus affording Animal Kingdom the chance to be named champion, but it seems extremely unlikely it can continue all the way through the Breeders' Cup with both Stay Thirsty and Coil having emerged as capable late-season prospects. Should Animal Kingdom wind up bringing the most votes at the end of the season, it would be an unprecedented victory for no three-year-old male whose last win of the season occurred as early as the first Saturday in May has been crowned divisional champion since formal polls were established in 1936. While there may be a first time for everything, the prospect leaves us more than a little wistful.
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