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POST PARADE AUGUST 31, 2011 Titles and tribulations by Vance Hanson Last weekend's Travers S. (G1) was not one of the more memorable editions of the "Midsummer Derby," yet it served its purpose by yielding (finally) a leader among this year's three-year-old males. STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini) has now compiled more graded stakes wins this season --three -- than any other potential claimants to the title, and while there is plenty of major racing left over the next two months, it's difficult to imagine a scenario how Stay Thirsty will be deposed. He alone among the sophomore colts still in training seemingly has both the current form and ability at 1 1/4 miles to make a significant impact against older horses, an important factor going forward as Stay Thirsty's final two races this season are expected to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Stay Thirsty might not win them, but it's unlikely any peer with legitimate Eclipse qualifications is going to beat him to the finish line in either one. With longshots RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE (Tapit) and J W BLUE (Sky Mesa) rounding out the top three, this was most certainly not a vintage Travers. Preakness S. (G1) winner SHACKLEFORD (Forestry) weakened to eighth after leading the first six furlongs, and has now finished unplaced in half of his eight stakes tries this season. RULER ON ICE (Roman Ruler), the Belmont S. (G1) winner, finished fourth and increasingly looks like a one-hit wonder. The major disappointment of the Travers was COIL (Point Given), who vied for favoritism with Stay Thirsty but virtually trailed throughout. So bad was this performance that it can hardly be considered representative. We still think highly of Bob Baffert's colt, and perhaps he can make amends at some point down the road. If he were to pull a surprise at the Breeders' Cup, we might have to re-consider how we view the championship race. For now, we'll take a wait-and-see approach. Early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) made a dramatic return from a long layoff in Saturday's King's Bishop S. (G1), and just failed to hold off CALEB'S POSSE (Posse) in the final yards. Uncle Mo's effort was a lot closer in style and substance to his undefeated juvenile campaign than what we saw from him earlier this season. Owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher are wont to keep Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty separated until the Breeders' Cup Classic, with the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G2) at 1 1/8 miles on September 24 a logical spot to stretch out Uncle Mo. Is there a scenario whereby Uncle Mo can be three-year-old champion? Back-to-back victories in the Pennsylvania Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic might do it, but anything short of that wouldn't be enough. His record going into his final starts of the season is simply too weak -- a win in the Timely Writer S. (a race created out of thin air for him), a third in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) and a second in the King's Bishop -- nor has he tried 10 furlongs, which makes a victory in the Classic a lot to expect at this writing. The Breeders' Cup Classic picture was less impacted by the results of last Sunday's Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar on Polytrack. The race lost a lot of its luster when the champion filly BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) was kept out of the entries even after her connections pondered running her for weeks. The ultimate reluctance to have her try males, regardless of whether it was a good or bad move in hindsight, does not bode well for her taking a shot at the Breeders' Cup Classic. The October 1 Lady's Secret S. (G1) at Santa Anita against fillies and mares looks like her next port of call. ACCLAMATION (Unusual Heat) turned in a commendable performance in winning the Pacific Classic for his fourth consecutive victory. Making all the fractions as is his custom, the California-bred turned back a challenge from Santa Anita H. (G1) hero GAME ON DUDE (Awesome Again) at the top of the stretch, then fended off a late surge from TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) in the final yards to finish in a track-record 2:00 3/5 for 1 1/4 miles. Despite gaining an automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Classic with his Del Mar triumph, Acclamation is unlikely to contest the race according to his connections. Co-owner Don Johnston told Daily Racing Form this week that if Acclamation were to run on the first Saturday in November, their preference would be the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). This is entirely reasonable as Acclamation has compiled a laudable record in Southern California this summer winning the Jim Murray H. (G2), Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) and Eddie Read S. (G1) on grass, and his victory in the Pacific Classic is no evidence he will be able to run as effectively on the dirt at Churchill Downs. There's also an issue of actually getting Acclamation nominated to the Breeders' Cup program, which would require a supplementary fee regardless of which race Acclamation actually goes to. Before turning to this coming Saturday's Woodward S. (G1) at Saratoga, which should have Breeders' Cup Classic implications one way or another, we'll make note of something that sticks out in the 2011 record of Acclamation. For those who like to keep track of such things, Acclamation is now a three-time Grade 1 winner this season. At least those were the grades attached to several of the races previously mentioned. A fundamental flaw in the grading system is that races are assigned grades based on the quality of previous renewals rather than the composition of the field that actually shows up. Furthermore, as turf writer Jay Hovdey poignantly put it: "...most fans parrot the terminology, citing grades of races in conversations regarding the relative merits of horses, as if these numbers were handed down from MIT, thoroughly scrutinized." In other words, Grade 1 races can have more mediocre fields than Grade 2 or Grade 3 events on occasion, and it's best to keep that in mind when comparing the records of championship contenders. It would not be out of line to suggest that this year's editions of the Whittingham Memorial and Eddie Read would each qualify as a GOINO (Grade One In Name Only). Likewise, it would be hard to express with a straight face that any race involving both Blind Luck and HAVRE DE GRACE (Saint Liam) was a mere Grade 2 (Delaware H.) or Grade 3 (Azeri S.) event or that the outcome of those races should be weighted less than another race in the same division which happens to carry Grade 1 status. Another example of a grade not doing justice to the quality of the field would be the April 16 Charles Town Classic (G3), which attracted the likes of Game on Dude, eventual Metropolitan H. (G1) and Whitney H. (G1) winner TIZWAY (Tiznow), and Acclamation. Game on Dude finished second, Tizway third, and Acclamation trailed the field of 10, another piece of evidence that probably gives the Acclamation team cause for pause in pursuing the Breeders' Cup Classic. It is for these reasons that Acclamation is not presently higher on our list for champion older male honors despite the status of the races he's won to date. One horse who could climb higher on our list of older males is FLAT OUT (Flatter), who is expected to contest the 1 1/8-mile Woodward. A dynamite winner of the Suburban H. (G2) two back, Flat Out was three lengths second to Tizway in the Whitney last out. Before a potential re-match with that rival in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Flat Out will try and topple the filly Havre de Grace, who will be taking on the boys for the first time. A victory by Flat Out would still keep him behind Tizway in the pecking order until they meet again, but it would give him a crucial second stakes win on the year. Havre de Grace could enhance her credentials not only for champion older female honors but Horse of the Year with a win in the Woodward, a race won for the first time by a filly two years ago when the three-year-old Rachel Alexandra clinched national championship honors with an historic score. A win in the Woodward by Havre de Grace would most definitely be a game-changer in the race for champion older female honors between her and Blind Luck. In the event Havre de Grace is a convincing winner, her connections could conceivably keep her against males the rest of the season, thus forcing Blind Luck's hand as the season series between them is currently tied at 1-1. If Havre de Grace loses, there will be no residual harm done in the race for divisional honors, though Horse of the Year would seem a longshot as her connections might be wary of trying the boys again depending on the severity of the loss. ***** We welcome the impressive return to racing last weekend of THE FACTOR (War Front), who beat the best older California sprinters silly in the Pat O'Brien S. (G1) at Del Mar. Trainer Bob Baffert has said the October 1 Vosburgh S. (G1) or the October 8 Ancient Title S. (G1) would be considered for the fleet-footed three-year-old, who would then try either the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) or Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). With a possible Eclipse Award on the line, the Sprint would seem to be an option too good to pass up. On the flip side, we're disappointed about the season-ending injury incurred by HILDA'S PASSION (Canadian Frontier) in her runaway score in the Ballerina S. (G1). While the favorite SASSY IMAGE (Broken Vow) was effectively eliminated at the start after grabbing a quarter, she probably would have been hard-pressed to beat Hilda's Passion at any rate. Sassy Image will have the benefit of getting to run over her home course in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) at Churchill Downs, but if she were to come up short again it's not inconceivable Hilda's Passion could re-enter the discussion for champion female sprinter honors.
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