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POST PARADE AUGUST 29, 2012 The State of the Races by Vance Hanson For political junkies, the next couple of months represent their quadrennial opportunity to experience a state of frenzy and euphoria. Those with an addiction to analyzing turnover in legislative bodies have it even better, getting their high on a biennial basis. Close observers of the Thoroughbred sport arguably are luckier by getting to eat their cake annually. These next few weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup, which often decides a large share of Eclipse Award championships, typically sees a lot of movement in the electoral fortunes of horses in various divisions. A key victory, a bad loss or an unfortunate injury are just some of the ways that can sway voters in one direction or another. What follows is one elector's view of the way the major divisional races are shaping up. This is not a consensus view and only indicates the way I'm thinking at the moment. In no way does this analysis pretend to be fair and balanced or leaning forward. If you're looking for the former or latter, you know where to find it on your television dial. Three-year-old male: It was going to take a lot to displace I'll Have Another following his unbeaten season of four wins, including two-thirds of the Triple Crown. His coronation has become even more likely as rivals have followed him to stud or suffered untimely illnesses and injuries. The events of the past week have done little to change this perception. An explosive victory in the Haskell Invitational suggested Paynter could make a strong late-season rally in the championship race. A victory over older horses would have been imperative -- arguably nothing less than the Breeders' Cup Classic -- but those hopes look increasingly dim. Owner Ahmed Zayat tweeted Tuesday morning that Paynter has fallen sick again, later revealed to be colitis. Illness forced the colt to miss last weekend's Travers, and has now all but ended his chances of making the Pennsylvania Derby, which would have been his final Breeders' Cup prep. Unless Paynter gets healthy again soon and manages to stay undefeated the rest of the season while winning the right race(s), his candidacy appears doomed. Alpha recently replicated the feat of his sire, Bernardini, by sweeping the Jim Dandy and Travers. The comparisons stop there as Bernardini was already a classic winner when he annihilated his opposition in both Saratoga races, while Alpha just barely managed to dead heat with the unheralded Golden Ticket in the Midsummer Derby. Alpha's next port of call is the Pennsylvania Derby, certainly a path of least resistance toward the Breeders' Cup Classic. A sweep of the two races would be game-changing, but his weak speed ratings suggest he probably doesn't have the tools to defeat older horses, and might partially explain why his connections are avoiding a more immediate confrontation with his elders in the prestigious Jockey Club Gold Cup. Dullahan registered a strong win in last Sunday's Pacific Classic at Del Mar, giving a somewhat maligned and injury-prone crop of three-year-olds some cachet with a credible triumph against older horses. While that win would normally have given Dullahan's candidacy a boost, the victory proved little other than the colt remains a creature of Polytrack. All three of his career wins have been on the surface, and he is 6-0-0-2 on dirt. With the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita rather than at Churchill Downs, where he finished a decent third in the Kentucky Derby, Dullahan has his work cut out for enhancing his resume sufficiently to seize the championship with a late bid. His connections also seem to have turned their focus toward keeping him happy and healthy for a shot at the $10 million Dubai World Cup next March. *** Three-year-old filly: A nine-length romp in the Alabama, which came on the heels of a 4 1/4-length decision in the Coaching Club American Oaks, has put Questing in the driver's seat for divisional honors. Unless one of the vanquished from the Alabama, say Grace Hall or In Lingerie, turns the tables on her in the upcoming Cotillion at Parx Racing, Questing will enter the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic an overwhelming choice to be champion. One potential stumbling block for Questing is the location of the Breeders' Cup. Only Ajina (1997) managed to travel from the East Coast to win a Ladies' Classic/Distaff at either Santa Anita or Hollywood Park without any prior experience on the circuit. That home court advantage might play into the hands of a filly like Potesta, who has laid low since taking the Hollywood Oaks in her stakes debut in June. She's about to embark on a fall campaign in Sunday's Torrey Pines at Del Mar. *** Older male: You know the older male division is trending in the wrong direction when two of its last three champions were turf and/or synthetic specialists. Right now, it seems there is sufficient talent among the dirt performers to keep most of the electorate from unnecessarily venturing off the reservation again. The present favorite still looks like Game On Dude, who lost nothing in defeat to Dullahan in the Pacific Classic. I was going to give Game On Dude a pass regardless of how he performed at Del Mar, given his below-par try in the same race last year, but the five-year-old ran a super race to finish a close second behind a Polytrack specialist while easily besting the rest of the field. Aside from his Dubai World Cup debacle over an unfamiliar Tapeta surface, Game On Dude has posted a stellar record this season with daylight scores in the San Antonio and Californian, and a more workmanlike tally in the Hollywood Gold Cup. If he has a final Breeders' Cup prep, it would likely be in the Awesome Again (formerly the Goodwood). His home court advantage makes him the probable favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Ron the Greek is the second most interesting candidate. While far from a win machine, he hasn't finished worse than second in five starts this season, posting wins in the Santa Anita Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap. The former victory is key as it's been historically difficult for East Coast-based runners to find their way into the winner's circle following a Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita. At least we know he likes the track. Fort Larned's most important stakes win among four so far this year was the Whitney Handicap, when he got the jump over Ron the Greek. If he can add the Jockey Club Gold Cup to his resume, he could be in very good shape with a strong Breeders' Cup performance. He has no experience racing out west, but as a grandson of the Hall of Fame mare Bayakoa he might have inherited a fondness of the San Gabriel Mountains as a backdrop. Wise Dan can run on anything, but trainer Charlie Lopresti seems to be concentrating on getting the colt ready for the Breeders' Cup Mile rather the Classic. We'll discuss him more in depth below. Shackleford is another who looks like a more serious contender for another division, namely champion male sprinter. This weekend's Woodward at Saratoga features Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve, two colts both trying to prove they are more than just one-turn specialists against top company. Alternation, a prolific winner this term, looks a cut below these. By missing the Pacific Classic due to injury, a successful title defense by Acclamation seems unlikely as he'll probably concentrate on grass racing when he returns to action. Or at least I hope it's unlikely. *** Older female: Last Sunday's Personal Ensign Handicap was a disappointing loss for both Royal Delta and It's Tricky, but their championship hopes were hardly affected. Royal Delta, who was quite washy in the pre-race warm-up, might not have been at her best psychologically to run to her usual standard. Although she wound up losing by only a half-length, she never looked like a potential winner at any point in the final furlong. It's Tricky arguably ran the best race under the circumstances. She stumbled twice leaving the gate so it obviously took longer than normal for her to regain her footing. She did manage to make a strong rally rounding the final turn when she found an open path along the inside, but her bid petered out rather quickly trying to overcome too much. Both fillies have had solid campaigns this season, and another match between the two might be in the offing in the Beldame in late September. As is the case with Questing, Royal Delta and It's Tricky might be at a potential disadvantage over the Santa Anita strip in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. One who will not be is Include Me Out, who has compiled an excellent record on the West Coast this season with seemingly little national fanfare. Outside of a loss in the Vanity Handicap, where she idled with a big lead in the stretch only to be run down by a longshot, Include Me Out claimed the hardware in the La Canada, Santa Margarita, Marjorie L. Everett Handicap and Clement L. Hirsch. *** Turf divisions: The European contingent will always be tough to knock off in Breeders' Cup grass races, and often a victory on the day propels one or two into Eclipse Award favoritism. We really won't know whose traveling from across the pond for awhile yet, but awaiting them will be some talented American performers. On the male side, the best Turf candidates appear to be Acclamation and Point of Entry. Acclamation has been all by himself in winning most of the leading grass races in California, and if he recovers sufficiently it will be interesting to see how he adapts to facing a much more talented group of opponents than he's run against the past couple of years. Point of Entry has been a pleasant surprise this year for owner "Dinny" Phipps and trainer Shug McGaughey, and could easily pad his championship credentials in the Joe Hirsh Turf Classic in late September. With consecutive wins in the Elkhorn, Man o' War and Sword Dancer Invitational, all by increasing margins, he's undoubtedly America's past 12-furlong grass horse at the moment. The aforementioned Wise Dan could present a strong challenge to any European turf miler who comes over, especially if he can reproduce his recent Fourstardave Handicap performance in the Woodbine Mile in a few weeks. We think a little less of Little Mike, who was fortunate to receive no pressure when scooping up the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and Arlington Million in wire-to-wire fashion. A miler at heart, he's gotten in trouble in the past when hooked into a fast pace. The result of the Beverly D. a couple of weeks ago suggests the female turf division is much more vulnerable to European exploitation. Marketing Mix, whose second-place effort prevented an all-Europe trifecta in the Beverly D., seems best on the American bench but doesn't yet look the kind to beat higher-class European imports. The three-year-old Lady of Shamrock, who hangs her hat in Southern California, is the dominant force in her division and will probably step up to face her elders in the Rodeo Drive (formerly the Yellow Ribbon) en route to the Filly & Mare Turf. The home course advantage should help her Eclipse Award chances. *** Male sprinter: Despite setbacks in two of his four starts this year, defending champion Amazombie probably holds the cards with his home course hosting the Breeders' Cup Sprint. He's won four of his past five starts over Santa Anita's main track, including last year's Ancient Title, now blandly renamed the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, which will serve as his final prep for the Breeders' Cup. California has other viable candidates like Pat O'Brien winner Capital Account, as well as veterans The Factor and Camp Victory. The East Coast sprinters don't appear to be a strong group. If successful in Saturday's Forego at Saratoga, Shackleford would have two seven-furlong stakes wins on the year to go with his Metropolitan Handicap score at a mile, but it would be a surprise if he cuts back to six panels for the Breeders' Cup Sprint to take aim at an Eclipse Award. The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile would be a more likely option. *** Female sprinter: The Filly & Mare Sprint has the potential to be one of the most intriguing races of Breeders' Cup weekend, at least from a championship perspective. Turbulent Descent, who endured a terrible trip in last year's renewal at Churchill Downs, will be among the favorites after winning her first two races of the season -- the Desert Stormer Handicap and Ballerina. Winner of the Santa Anita Oaks early last year, Turbulent Descent should have no trouble readjusting to Southern California living when the time comes. The trip, as was shown last year, will be key. With Questing a potentially stronger candidate for the Ladies' Classic, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin might opt to put It's Tricky in the Filly & Mare Sprint instead. Her one-turn record this year -- victories in the Distaff Handicap and Ogden Phipps -- is stellar enough. Groupie Doll, who impressively captured the Humana Distaff and Madison in the spring, is about to return to action in the Presque Isle Downs Masters as she works her way toward California. Acorn and Test scorer Contested is best of the three-year-old class, while defending champion Musical Romance just started getting back to work Tuesday in her first published move since taking the Princess Rooney Handicap in early July. *** Juvenile and Steeplechase divisions: The outcomes of the two-year-old races are usually heavily dependent on the results of the corresponding Breeders' Cup races, so we'll wait and see how things shake out in early November. As usual, the steeplechase division is currently in a great state of flux and there's not much sense forming an opinion until the Lonesome Glory, Grand National and Colonial Cup have been run.
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