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COMMENTARY SEPTEMBER 18, 2014 Rail post, stalking tactics could undermine Chrome's comeback by James Scully California Chrome returns in Saturday's $1 million Pennsylvania Derby and the dual classic winner will need to overcome the rail post in a field of eight, the same starting position that resulted in a dead-heat fourth in the Belmont Stakes. As much as I would love to see jockey Victor Espinoza play "catch me if you can" from the start, I think there's little chance he'll utilize a major weapon in California Chrome's arsenal -- speed. "I just hope he has a clean trip and gets in the clear," Art Sherman said this week. That doesn't sound like a trainer who expects to be on the early lead. Indeed, it seems that California Chrome's connections would love to drop behind and alter course to the outside of Bayern during the early stages of the Pennsylvania Derby, and we saw how that strategy played out last time. California Chrome may not have won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes under any circumstances, but his best chance was on the lead after he drew the innermost post in the final leg of the Triple Crown. Despite the lack of any confirmed front-runners to his outside, Espinoza refused to send his mount after breaking forwardly, taking a hold and guiding California Chrome out wide for a stalking trip in fourth. That left Commissioner showing the way and all you have to do is look at his past performances (click here to view) to see what a massive change in form it represented for the plodder. The front-end trip resulted in career-best performance, by a wide margin, with Commissioner refusing to yield until the final stride, recording a head second. It's easy to understand Espinoza's Belmont strategy -- the stalking trip represented the least liability for the rider. If California Chrome sets the pace and coughs up the lead in the final furlongs, everybody can question the Espinoza's tactics. If the horse stalks the pace and comes short, California Chrome simply didn't have it that day. The problem is that his speed gets lost in the equation. California Chrome was fast enough to easily outrun Commissioner during the early stages last time, and his BRIS Early Pace ratings show that's quick enough to be showing the way in the Pennsylvania Derby. This is the same horse who recorded a couple of tour-de-force performances on the front end during the spring, including the San Felipe in which California Chrome established pressured splits of :23 and :45 2/5 before drawing off with the utmost ease, winning by more than seven lengths. Granted, he changed tactics winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, settling a few lengths off the early pacesetter before offering his best, but both times he was breaking from a more favorable post position. Those races seemingly resulted in a different mindset for California Chrome's connections, one where he was no longer a speed horse but a stalker. The rail draw complicates matters once again on Saturday, with Espinoza being forced to negotiate a favorable trip if he doesn't seize the early initiative. California Chrome has the class to lead all the way at Parx Racing if he just breaks running. Bayern won't get caught in a suicidal duel up front following the Travers debacle and the fact that he's drawn three positions to the outside of California Chrome should guarantee a tracking trip to the outside of his main rival. But that's not the way I envision it playing out. Bayern's connections, trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Martin Garcia, would probably love to see Espinoza take another early hold, leaving Bayern in the driver's seat. And that could easily happen. I'll go with Bayern wire to wire.
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