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BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY PREVIEWS BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC (G1), 12TH-SA, $5,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 8:35PM, 11-1
by James Scully A full field of 14 will contest the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic and the main question confronting horse players is what to do with Shared Belief, who figures to be an overwhelming favorite following Grade 1 victories over older horses in the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again. He must be considered a serious win contender -- the possibility exists that he'll be able to overpower these rivals and extend his perfect record to eight -- but I won't take a short price as he makes his first start at 1 1/4 miles on dirt. 1ST -- BAYERN has turned in spectacular performances on dirt this year, recording runaway victories in the Woody Stephens, Haskell Invitational and Pennsylvania Derby since June, and he'll attempt to carry his razor-sharp form forward in the Classic. The three-year-old established a new track mark and earned a whopping 109 BRIS Speed rating while making his final Classic prep last time (Pennsylvania Derby) and Bayern doesn't appear to have skipped a beat since that start on September 20, posting four swift works at Santa Anita in the 42-day interim. The Bob Baffert-trained colt faltered when trying 10 furlongs in the Travers, but that came over a deep track at Saratoga that plays differently at Santa Anita. He's out of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Thunder Gulch and none of the last four Classic winners at Santa Anita -- Mucho Macho Man, Fort Larned, Zenyatta and Raven's Pass -- had won at 1 1/4 miles before. Bayern is a serious threat to lead all the way but drew well in post 7, allowing jockey Martin Garcia the option to sit close if necessary before seizing control, similar to the speedy Beholder in last year's Distaff. The track at Santa Anita should play to his strengths and Bayern rates top billing. 2ND -- SHARED BELIEF was never challenged winning his first six starts, five of those daylight wins on synthetic tracks, but the September 27 Awesome Again at Santa Anita proved to be a different story. Granted, he got the job done following a rough trip in which he was forced widest of all every step of the way, but jockey Mike Smith called upon everything the gelding had to offer as Shared Belief was on his belly the entire length of the stretch en route to a neck decision. Whether the grueling performance takes some starch out of Shared Belief remains to be seen, but the prospect of an extremely short price, against the deepest field he's faced in his short racing career, offers little appeal. Shared Belief remains a logical option for multi-race wagers, but I'll try to beat him for the win. 3RD -- ZIVO doesn't rate as a serious win contender, but the five-year-old exits an encouraging runner-up effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in which he was steadied repeatedly due to a loose horse. Trained by Chad Brown, the New York-bred strung together six straight wins, including a smart three-length tally in the 1 1/4-mile Suburban, prior to a fourth in the Woodward two back and the in-form closer has earned triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in his last three starts. He can rally for a small share. OTHERS -- TONALIST is eligible to outperform expectations, but I'm expecting more from him as a four-year-old. The late-blooming colt has recorded all three of his stakes wins at Belmont Park, where he relished the sweeping turns on the massive oval, and didn't fire his best efforts at Saratoga, registering lower BRIS Speed ratings in a pair of setbacks. The multiple Grade 1 victor could leave himself too much to do from off the pace. CALIFORNIA CHROME, TOAST OF NEW YORK and CIGAR STREET also merit consideration for a minor award.
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