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BREEDERS' CUP TURF (G1), 9TH-SA, $3,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/2MT, 6:22PM, 11-1
The Breeders' Cup Turf might have lost its defending champion in Magician, but it's still packed with star power. Given the quality of the Europeans' depth chart compared to ours, the 1 1/2-mile prize looks destined to travel across the Atlantic yet again. The most pressing handicapping task is to identify the likeliest European to do the honors, and one name rises over the horizon. 1ST -- TELESCOPE simply annihilated them in the June 21 Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, amply justifying the hype that has long enveloped him. If he can even come close to duplicating that effort in similar conditions, no one in this field could live with him. The Sir Michael Stoute colt was a onetime antepost favorite for the 2013 Epsom Derby, only to have his sophomore campaign bedeviled by injury. He did manage to make the Great Voltigeur last summer, and his fluent victory hinted that he was at his best going 1 1/2 miles on quick ground. Telescope didn't get those conditions again until his third start off the layoff in the Hardwicke, where he romped by seven lengths from stablemate Hillstar (the eventual winner of the Canadian International). The son of Galileo hasn't gotten those conditions in his two ensuing starts, but still turned in honorable efforts in defeat. On ground with a little more give than he likes in the July 26 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth back at Ascot, he was best of the rest behind Oaks heroine Taghrooda (later third in the Arc). In the August 20 Juddmonte International at York, Telescope loved the firmish going, but couldn't quite cope with the shorter 1 5/16-mile trip, and deferred to all-star sophomores Australia and The Grey Gatsby. Connections resisted the lure of the Arc, and Stoute methodically mapped his way to Santa Anita, where Telescope will have his optimal working environment. Brilliant jockey Ryan Moore will have also worked out a game plan from his rail post. With his useful tactical speed, Telescope figures to be stalking early before delivering the coup de grace. He could give the Stoute/Moore tandem a huge double following stablemate Dank in the Filly & Mare Turf. 2ND -- FLINTSHIRE, most recently runner-up to history-making Treve in the Arc, has a hefty stat in his favor. Arc losers have come back later in the fall to win this race no fewer than nine times (including Miss Alleged, who ran in the 1991 Washington D.C. International in between). From the ever-dangerous Andre Fabre yard, Flintshire has yet to finish out of the top two on his preferred good ground. His resume includes a victory in last year's Grand Prix de Paris as well as a second to the venerable Cirrus des Aigles in the June 7 Coronation Cup at Epsom. The Juddmonte homebred promises to perform right up to his best here, and would be an eminently logical winner. We can't escape the feeling, though, that he might lack the panache of a Telescope in full flight. 3RD -- CHICQUITA perhaps should have come here straight off her 15th in the Arc (from post 18), but the $8 million Goffs purchase is too talented to ignore. To be sure, the daughter of Montjeu has mad quirks to go along with her ability, and we wouldn't be surprised to see either the best or worst of her here. She has a penchant for veering toward the grandstand, and as an equal-opportunity wanderer, she has done this at both right- and left-handed tracks, for former trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre as well as current trainer Aidan O'Brien. Second to the mighty Treve in last year's French Oaks, she nearly threw away the Irish Oaks with this behavior, but held on to break her maiden. Chicquita arguably did throw away her latest venture, the October 18 British Champions Fillies' and Mares' at Ascot, and wound up third after her costly drift. Laboring on the heavy going that day could have left its mark, and this does loom as an afterthought. But she only recently returned from a 14-month layoff in September, finishing a sharp second to the now-retired Tarfasha, so could be comparatively fresher than most this time of year. And new rider Frankie Dettori could be just the forceful pilot she needs to set, and keep her, straight. OTHERS -- MAIN SEQUENCE is the most accomplished of the American-based runners, but HARDEST CORE is a more attractive 10-1 for under-the-radar connections. The Eddie Graham charge readily disposed of a subpar Magician in the August 16 Arlington Million, begging the question of how he would have fared among the usual suspects in the division's other major races this summer and fall. Hardest Core was an emphatic winner of Delaware's Cape Henlopen in his only prior attempt at this distance, and the up-and-comer could have still more scope to progress. Main Sequence was thoroughly exposed during his former career in England. Even allowing for the magnificent training job here by Graham Motion, and his possibly benefiting from Lasix, his Grade 1 hat trick since his repatriation could be read as an indictment of the U.S. turf scene. His class relief on these shores has now ended, along with his successful partnership with Rajiv Maragh (due to injury). Main Sequence picks up the services of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, and he will be closing late. But he could also be an underlay based on overvaluing of his U.S. record. Likely pacesetter IMAGINING and TWILIGHT ECLIPSE haven't figured out a way to beat Main Sequence yet. BROWN PANTHER is a top-class English stayer, but could find life difficult among 12-furlong specialists on a firm, turning course. HANGOVER KID and the trio from the September 28 John Henry Turf Championship -- FINNEGANS WAKE, BIG JOHN B and STARSPANGLED HEAT -- all look overmatched.
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