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BREEDERS' CUP MILE (G1), 11TH-SA, $2,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1MT, 7:40PM, 11-1
In the absence of two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, the Mile is on the threshold of a new era. Or rather, a hearkening back to a former one, when the Europeans tended to hold the upper hand. As much of a warrior as Wise Dan has been, the Hall of Fame shoe-in wasn't beating much outside of his Breeders' Cup ventures, and the internationals look poised to overwhelm what's left of the home defense. 1ST -- TORONADO will be taken on by intrepid handicappers who demand value, but we can't bring ourselves to take a stand against this son of two-time Turf hero High Chaparral. Unlike some past Mile runners from the Richard Hannon yard, this exquisite miler has the athleticism to transfer his considerable game to the tighter contours of Santa Anita. Two of Toronado's best performances have come over the turning, and notoriously undulating, course at Goodwood. Swooping late in swashbuckling style to land the 2013 Sussex Stakes, he was a fine second to superstar Kingman as the defending champion there on July 30. Toronado bookended that effort with a smooth victory in his reappearance in the June 17 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and a near-miss in the September 14 Prix du Moulin to gutsy sophomore Charm Spirit. The only two bad losses of his career were due to breathing problems that were surgically corrected last year, and he has otherwise been the soul of dependability. Reportedly making a good impression during morning training hours at Santa Anita, Toronado has a high cruising speed that should help him to settle comfortably within striking range of a likely torrid pace. Barring a traffic snarl (which jockey Richard Hughes has suffered here before) he can deliver a lethal closing kick in his likely career finale, and end the Hannon shut-out at the Breeders' Cup. 2ND -- MUSTAJEEB is the type of progressive three-year-old who can spring the upset, giving renowned Irish trainer Dermot Weld an overdue first Breeders' Cup trophy and capping a remarkably successful year for Sheikh Hamdan. The well-bred son of Nayef has produced two top efforts going a one-turn, left-handed mile at Leopardstown. Uncorking a terrific rally to dust older foes in the May 11 Amethyst in his sophomore bow, Mustajeeb was most recently a close second to the in-form Bow Creek in the September 13 Clipper Boomerang Mile. That latest venture was his return from a three-month break, a mere prep ahead of his big autumn targets. In between his Leopardstown sorties, he was third to Kingman in the May 24 Irish Two Thousand Guineas on desperately soft going at the Curragh, and posted a good-looking score in the June 18 Jersey at Royal Ascot. These are deeper waters, but the exciting colt looks ripe for the challenge. 3RD -- ANODIN is better known for his family ties (full brother to three-time Mile legend Goldikova) and for his placings (behind the likes of Toronado, Cirrus des Aigles and Kingman) than for anything he's won himself. Like Goldikova, Anodin is a Wertheimer & Frere homebred trained by Freddie Head, and he's bay. But the similarities pretty much end there. A Group 3 winner during his sophomore campaign in 2013, Anodin has yet to show the brilliance of his sister, let alone scale her heights. He is, however, honest, genuine, and capable, and in the hurly-burly of a competitive field, those qualities can be rewarded. Head also strongly believes that Santa Anita will bring out the best in Anodin. OTHERS -- VEDA would have been the top selection had she gone in the Filly & Mare Turf, so we had a moral crisis over trying to put the 12-1 shot in the top three here. At the risk of sounding like an arrogant whipper-snapper, however, we really wish that the Aga Khan's brain trust had given the green light for the longer race. Her runner-up efforts in the May 11 French One Thousand Guineas and the October 4 Prix Daniel Wildenstein (to Head's Hong Kong-bound older male Solow) put her squarely in the mix for the Mile. Yet the daughter of Dansili and the Trempolino mare Vadapolina (a two-time Group 3 winner in the vicinity of 1 1/4 miles) also appeared to be crying out for a step up in trip. Veda's been on our radar screen since her career debut. Even as we wring our hands over what might have been, we hope that she can jump up as a live longshot in the Mile. Fellow Europeans KARAKONTIE and TRADE STORM have to play a much tougher hand. Karakontie's hopes were dealt a blow in post 14, while deep closer Trade Storm won't have nearly as much stretch to work with as he did when landing the September 14 Woodbine Mile (over KAIGUN). If any American can serve as the super-sub for Wise Dan, it's TOM'S TRIBUTE, who is in career-best form at present. The Jim Cassidy charge equaled Wise Dan's record of 1:31.78 when rolling from well off the pace in the April 6 Thunder Road at this course and distance, and he exits back-to-back scores in the July 20 Eddie Read (beating SUMMER FRONT) and August 24 Del Mar Mile (with front runner extraordinaire OBVIOUSLY fourth). SEEK AGAIN represents a more obvious tie-in to Wise Dan's form, but his poor post (12) and his recent propensity to find trouble leave us less than confident. The Bill Mott pupil was a badly-hampered sixth to Wise Dan in the October 4 Shadwell Turf Mile. With a clean passage, he would have finished a lot closer. After all, he was beaten only a head by Wise Dan in their prior meeting in the May 3 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. And Seek Again had previously beaten the placegetters in the Shadwell, GRAND ARCH and SAYAAD, in his course record-setting win in the August 9 Fourstardave at Saratoga. Stablemate TOURIST has a great deal of upside in principle, but post 13 -- and the problem of being a confirmed pace factor in a race with Obviously -- could be too much for the talented three-year-old. Obviously hasn't managed to wire the Mile in two prior tries, and even though he's trying a new tack to enter off a break, we suspect he's just not up to winning this. The also-eligible MR. COMMONS was fifth in his two previous attempts in 2011-12, and it's difficult to envision him improving on those results at this stage in his career.
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