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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 30, 2006 by Dick Powell DEEP IMPACT (Sunday Silence) continues to amaze and, in my mind, is the world's greatest horse. The best son of the immortal Sunday Silence is the winner of 10 of his 11 career starts and the Japanese Triple Crown last year. Last Sunday, he won the Takarazuka Kinen (Jpn-G1) by four lengths at Kyoto Race Course in what should be his last start before attempting an historic run at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) this October in Paris. Two starts back, Deep Impact won the Tenno Sho (Spring) (Jpn-G1) going 3,200 meters in one of the most amazing performances ever seen. He broke the world record for the distance (slightly less than two miles) when he ran his last half mile under 45 seconds after rallying out in the middle of the track on the last turn. Last Sunday, he faced a strong field of 13 going 2,200 meters (slightly less than 1 3/8 miles) on a course that was softened up by a constant rain. For trainer Yasuo Ikee, it was the perfect prep for the first Sunday in October when Longchamp Racecourse is normally very soft from rain in the fall. Yutake Take took Deep Impact to the back of the pack as usual out of the gate and was content to gallop along. The pace was set by Balance of Game (Fusaichi Concorde) and he covered the first mile in approximately 1:37.2. The typical Deep Impact race is to sit far behind, begin to pick up horses on the far outside and run them down in the stretch. In the Tenno Sho (Spring), he took the lead earlier than normal before turning for home, but he was only third with 400 meters to go in Sunday's Takarazuka Kinen. Balance of Game was still on the lead, but Take got into Deep Impact and the race was over. He quickened in the blink of an eye and drew off to an easy four-length win over a late-rallying Narita Century (Tony Bin). Balance of Game held on for third. Deep Impact has the pedigree and stamina for a run at the Arc. The late Sunday Silence is a proven mile-and-a-half sire. His son HEART’S CRY (Sunday Silence), the only horse ever to beat Deep Impact, won the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) this year going 1 1/2 miles over a stout field, and he has sired many Japanese classic winners at the Arc's distance. More importantly, his dam, Wind in Her Hair (Ire) (Alzao) was second in the 1995 Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) going 12 furlongs and won the Aral-Pokal (Ger-G1) at four on soft turf. Wind in Her Hair's dam, Highclere (GB) (Queen’s Hussar), won not only the 1974 Prix de Diane (Fr-G1), also known as the French Oaks, but was second against males in the 1 1/2-mile King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) later that same season. Deep Impact might have been bred in Japan, but his pedigree is the perfect combination of American brilliance and European stamina. He finishes his races in incredible fashion and should be a perfect fit for the Arc. Take is a legendary reinsman with an impeccable sense of timing. He'll utilize Deep Impact's cruising speed to great advantage and then it's a matter of is he good enough. I can't wait. ***** Soft turf is often an enigma to handicap. While your instinct says that a running surface that is tiring should favor horses coming from off the pace, the reality is that many times a horse on the front end sets slower-than-expected fractions and gets brave on the lead. In Saturday's New York H. (G2), NOBLE STELLA (Ger) (Monsun) went to the front in the 10-furlong event on a rain-soaked Belmont inner turf course. Mike Smith was able to back the pace down to :52.66 for the half and 1:18.58 for six furlongs. The pace picked up a bit around the far turn as Edgar Prado began to apply pressure aboard Argentina (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells), the 2-1 favorite who shipped in from California for Bobby Frankel. With Argentina right next to her in the deep stretch and Angara (GB) (Alzao) rallying on the far outside, it looked like Noble Stella would succumb but she battled on bravely to hold off Angara by a neck with Argentina another 1 1/4 lengths behind. The first three finishers were all bred in Europe where soft turf is more the norm than here. Two things to know about German-breds. First, their names always begin with the same first letter of their dam. Noble Stella's dam, Noble Pearl (Dashing Blade) begins with an "n." It makes pedigree research a little bit easier. Second, German-breds absolutely love soft turf. Their horses are bred for stamina and the longer the race and softer the turf, the better they do. Noble Stella was the perfect horse for Belmont's rain-soaked inner turf and Smith gave her the perfect ride. ***** Put $1 million in purses up and restrict the race to three-year-olds on the turf and you are bound to attract a big field. Colonial Downs held the Colonial Turf Cup S. at 1 3/16 miles on Saturday and it attracted an overflow field of 14 sophomore turfers. Six horses were less than 10-1 and the betting public settled on SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) as the lukewarm 28-10 favorite. Owned by the same connections (Lael Stables) of Barbaro and only once-beaten in his career, Showing Up was making his turf debut for Barclay Tagg, whose horses have been running their eyeballs out recently. On a turf course listed as "firm," Kip Deville (Kipling) gunned from post 14 and assumed command. Rather than try to conserve his speed, the 28-1 longshot, who is now trained by Rick Dutrow, opened up a big lead, covering the first half mile in :45.45. With a 15-length lead, he threw in an amazing :23.16 third quarter and was still far in front. Around the far turn, the margin began to shrink but it still looked like Kip Deville might hang on. After a mile in 1:34.55, Kip Deville had a clear lead in the stretch, but Cornelio Velasquez had Showing Up in a drive. He collared Kip Deville inside the furlong pole and romped to the wire despite racing on the wrong lead. Kip Deville grimly held on for second and Go Between (Point Given) got up for third. For Showing Up, it was a remarkable turf debut as he lowered the course record to 1:52.98. He is now the only horse eligible for the $5 million Grand Slam of Grass bonus. His next start should be the $1 million Virginia Derby (G2) over the same course on July 15, then the August 12 Secretariat S. (G1) at Arlington Park. If still eligible, he'll have to defeat older rivals in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) at Churchill to secure the bonus.
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