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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JANUARY 23, 2015 by Dick Powell It's hard to get Derby FeverĀ up here in Saratoga as welcome as it might be. It was 22 below zero last week and so far, it's been a long and hard winter. But things are beginning to heat up for all of us and Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park is a major step on the road to the Kentucky Derby (G1). The field of 10 has a few things in common. None are graded stakes winners. Six are eligible for non-winners-of-one allowance conditions and two others would be eligible for most tracks' allowance conditions since their other wins came against state-bred foes. Only Bluegrass Singer (Bluegrass Cat) has won an open stakes race. So basically, the Holy Bull is a good allowance race going 1 1/16 miles on the Gulfstream Park main track. And, let's remind ourselves that we are looking to solve the Holy Bull puzzle, not pick a horse that will win the Kentucky Derby. Frosted (Tapit) is the most intriguing horse in the field. He started his career going short and because Godolphin owns him, he was not allowed to race with Lasix since their policy is not to give it to their young horses. The Kiaran McLaughlin-trainee then broke his maiden first time going a mile at Aqueduct at the end of October and came back in the Remsen (G2) with Lasix added. Unfortunately, he drew post 13 that day and with the short run going into the clubhouse turn on the main track at Aqueduct, he raced wide. So wide that he ran 61 feet farther than the winner, Leave the Light On (Horse Greeley). So now Frosted makes his three-year-old debut off a strong effort going nine furlongs. He earned a healthy BRIS Speed rating of 98 in the Remsen and draws the rail with Irad Ortiz Jr. back in the irons. Getting a distance of ground should be no problem. Frosted's sire, Tapit, had a sensational year on the track and in the sales ring. His runners earned more than $16 million in 2014 and his 40 yearlings sold averaged $611K. Plus, Frosted's broodmare sire, Deputy Minister (Vice Regent), is one of the best with his daughter's progeny racing on the dirt. So Frosted has all the ingredients for Saturday's' Holy Bull but he has nine rivals to handle. Bluegrass Singer is a horse for the course that won the listed Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park last out going a one-turn mile three weeks ago. He has already made seven starts and I get the feeling that Saturday will be his version of the Kentucky Derby. He will be cranked up coming back on short rest and he has a big chance to pick up graded black type. If he handles his assignment, they can always skip the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and wait for the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28. What Bluegrass Dancer has going for him is a high cruising speed that he has used to his advantage going longer. His Mucho Macho Man win was a tour-de-force of racing on the lead and running the field off their feet. He set a blazing pace with BRIS Pace figures of 107, 113 and 87 as he cruised home to a 1 1/4-length win. His last two BRIS Speed ratings of 103 and 101 certainly fits with these, as par for this race is 101. Frosted's Godolphin stablemate, First Down (Street Sense), has a few things going for him. He won his career debut going 6 1/2 furlongs back in September and beat Frosted in that race even though Frosted already had a race under his belt. Next out for First Down was the Nashua Stakes (G2) but the track came up muddy and he was a distant fourth after being bumped at the start. In second that day was El Kabeir (Scat Daddy), who came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) in late November at Churchill Downs and the Jerome Stakes (G3) this year on the inner dirt track at Aqueduct. First Down tries two turns for the first time in the Holy Bull and adds Lasix. He is by Derby winner Street Sense and out of a dam by Storm Cat so the pedigree is there. First Down races from just off the pace and should be in the middle of the pack in the Holy Bull, with plenty of energy for the stretch with first-time Lasix. Nick Zito sends out a horse that is improving and could be ready to join the ranks of the upper echelon sophomores. Frammento (Midshipman) broke his maiden second time out going this distance at Keeneland then was an even fourth against allowance foes at Churchill Downs. He made his Gulfstream Park debut last month and was a good second behind Bluegrass Singer in an allowance race going a mile, earning a BRIS Speed rating of 97. Seeing how well Bluegrass Singer ran next time out, Frammento could be sitting on a big race if he continues to improve. With Zito, you rarely see a young horse come out and run big early and then fade. His horses are trained and raced in a way that each work or race is a step in the right direction to the ultimate goal. Frammento looks like the typical Zito youngster that still has an upside. Rick Violette had a nice New York-bred last year with Samraat (Noble Causeway), winner of the Gotham (G3) and Withers Stakes (G3) before running second in the Wood Memorial (G1). This year, he has another New York-bred named Upstart (Flatter) who won his first two career starts in restricted company, including the Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga. After trying open company in the Champagne (G1), finishing a game second on a muddy track, he recorded an unappreciated third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), rushing forward after breaking a step slow from post 11. Now, Upstart tries the 1 1/16-mile distance again but will have to overcome post eight. He does get the riding services of hot jockey Jose Ortiz, who has been up for all four starts and will have no trouble handling the national stage. If you want a longshot, how about the aptly named Dom the Bomb (Bring the Heat)? He won his last two stakes races against Illinois-breds at Hawthorne by wide margins, including a five-length score most recently at this distance in his two-turn debut. Sometimes, these type horses can pass the class test and as we started out this column, it's not like this is a strong Grade 2 field. Larry Ravelli is a cagey trainer that is winning at a 28 percent clip this year and rider Rafael Hernandez wins an amazing 31 percent rate with his route mounts. Dom the Bomb's pedigree is speed on top of speed but this is Gulfstream Park's main track. Sign me up for the upset.
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