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White's 10 reasons why American Pharoah will win Belmont
Stakes
Santa Anita morning-line maker Jon White -- who, in addition to Santa
Anita's morning line, makes selections for the track's official program -- has
come up with 10 reasons why he believes Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S.
(G1) victor American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) will win Saturday's $1.5
million Belmont S. (G1) to
complete the first Triple Crown sweep since Affirmed achieved the rare feat 37
years ago.
His 10 reasons are as follows:
- Of the seven horses entered against American Pharoah in the Belmont, he already has defeated each by 3
1/4
lengths or more.
- Two of his three main threats -- Firing Line (Line of David) and
Dortmund (Big Brown), who finished two-three in the Kentucky Derby, are not running in the
Belmont.
- He was the two-year-old male champion. Six of the
last seven horses to sweep the Triple Crown had been voted two-year-old male
champion. American Pharoah is the first two-year-old male champion to try for a
Triple Crown in the Belmont since Spectacular Bid in 1979.
- His dominance. When Seattle Slew went into the
Belmont with an eight-for-eight record, his average margin of victory was 4.71
lengths. American Pharoah goes into the Belmont with an average margin of
victory of 5.04 lengths in his current six-race winning streak.
- He's six-for-six when ridden by Victor Espinoza.
- He's six-for-six when racing without blinkers.
- He's five-for-five on dirt.
- He's five-for-five when racing around two turns.
- His trainer, Bob Baffert, knows how to win the
Belmont. Baffert sent out Point Given to win the 2001 Belmont by 12 1/4 lengths.
Baffert also has had three horses run well enough in the Belmont to finish
second -- Silver Charm (who came within three-quarters of a length of a Triple
Crown sweep in 1997), Real Quiet (who came within a nose of a Triple Crown sweep
in 1998) and Paynter (who lost by a neck in 2012).
- He can be rated if necessary. While most of
American Pharoah's wins have come in front-running fashion, he showed in both
the Rebel (G1) at Oaklawn Park and in the Kentucky Derby that he can sit off
the early pace and win. His versatility in terms of being able to go
wire-to-wire or rate kindly and come from off the pace helps make him all
the more difficult to beat in the Belmont.
Santa Anita Clocker Gary Young added his two cents worth as well. Young has been on American Pharoah's bandwagon since
the Triple Crown races started with the May 2 Kentucky Derby and he's not about to
jump off now.
"Barring anything unforeseen, I think Materiality (Afleet Alex) and
Pharaoh will be one-two early on," Young said. "I don't know what order they'll
be in. I don't think the connections of Frosted (Tapit) will want him up there, but they
won't want him that far back, either.
"I loved the way American Pharoah worked when I saw the
video on Monday (five furlongs at Churchill Downs in 1:00 1/5, breezing). I think
he'll win the race. I think Dallas Stewart's horse (Tale of Verve [Tale of Ekati]) is doing
well, and I've been on the Keen Ice (Curlin) longshot bandwagon since the Derby.
"Frosted and Materiality are the other two logical horses that will maybe
give American Pharoah a race, but I think he'll win."
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