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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 12, 2015 by Dick Powell Some quick hits from last Saturday's Belmont Stakes (G1): First of all, the 90,000 that attended was the largest crowd ever to witness the Triple Crown. All the big crowds that set records for Belmont Stakes attendance went home disappointed and the attendance in 1973, 1977 and 1978 were all less than the 90,000 that showed up on Saturday. I am extremely lucky to be at the last four Triple Crowns and American Pharoah's (Pioneerof the Nile) win on Saturday was similar to Secretariat's in 1973. Before 1973, you had to go back to 1948 for the last Triple Crown victory. When Secretariat was "moving like a tremendous machine" around the far turn, it was obvious that the 25-year drought was over. A 31-length victory usually has some "ho-hum" aspects to it but once the crowd was convinced that they were witnessing history, the release of energy was mind-boggling. No matter whom you bet, you were screaming for Secretariat. American Pharoah was not as dominant as Secretariat, and we have been disappointed before with many near misses, but once he looked like he could not be caught inside the last eighth of a mile, the crowd noise was deafening. It was great to hear sports media people that do not cover horse racing on a regular basis, but are present at other major sporting events, say the crowd noise at Belmont on Saturday was something that they had never heard anywhere. It was pretty cool. Any concerns about American Pharoah coming out of the Preakness (G1) were quickly dismissed with two sensational workouts down at Churchill Downs. He could not have been more ready and three races in five weeks were not a problem once he got through the Kentucky Derby (G1). California clocker Gary Young said before the Derby that American Pharoah was the best horse he had clocked in 35 years. Many scoffed at his opinion and dismissed it. Now, it shows that Young was right all along. I give him a lot of credit for going out on a limb like he did. There was no equivocation in what he said and he looks like a genius now. It didn't get a lot of notice but it rained pretty good on Saturday morning. I was up at 6 a.m. (ET) and the rain was steady until about 7:30 a.m. It was overcast all morning and the track was tight as could be. Any concerns about it drying out too much on a hot, sunny day were alleviated. The Belmont was contested over a nice, tight racetrack that American Pharoah relished. Victor Espinoza has won five of the last six Triple Crown races and it is no surprise as he is never overwhelmed by the moment. He broke American Pharoah just a step slow but quickly recovered and was on a mission to take the lead going into the clubhouse turn. As he has shown many times, once he makes the lead, American Pharoah will switch off and use his cruising speed for as long as he needs to. Whatever doubts I had about the dam-side of his pedigree were more than offset by his ability to cruise along and conserve energy. Maybe in a fast-paced race, genetic deficiencies would be exposed, but not on Saturday. The expected pace battle never materialized when Materiality (Afleet Alex) broke poorly and would not go up next to American Pharoah to push the pace. Johnny Velazquez said his mount was not grabbing the track and he could not put any real pressure on the leader. From there, he faded to dead last. Frosted (Tapit) put in a nice run and for a brief moment on the far turn, had to be checked in traffic. It didn't affect the outcome but it could not have come at a worse time. He quickly dropped over to the rail, passed Mubtaahij (Dubawi) and took aim at American Pharoah, but Espinoza was still sitting chilly and had plenty of horse left. It was a game performance by Frosted, who is owned by Godolphin and, hopefully, we will see more of their young runners stay in America to prepare for the classic races here. Mubtaahij has had a busy year and under better circumstances, could have been a bigger factor. Let's hope the next time Mike de Kock brings a runner to America he utilizes the anti-bleeding medication Lasix. Winning the Triple Crown has to be an amazing achievement and to do it three years after lying in a hospital bed in Dubai from a major heart attack has to be even more remarkable. Bob Baffert has won the Triple Crown and it has been an amazing journey from Rilito Park in Tucson, Arizona to the Belmont Stakes. Nobody knows more than Baffert the heartbreak of losing the Belmont after winning the first two legs. It was only fitting that the horse to finally do it, after 37 years, would be trained by the former quarter-horse trainer and jockey. Baffert was paid $200,000 by Burger King to have their mascot sit in his box. He took the money and donated all of it to four equine charities. Plus, Victor Espinoza donated his entire winning jockey fee to City of Hope Children's Cancer Hospital. There was an unconfirmed report from someone I know that Baffert walked into the Belmont Café early in the afternoon and bought a round for the entire room. Hundreds of people. He wasn't going to say it and in fact, said all the usual things about "if the horse is good enough" but Baffert was brimming with confidence all week. His two workouts at Churchill Downs were incredible and signs of a horse that was getting better and better. Baffert knew it all along. I would love to hear his reaction to all the analysts picking against him. The tale of the 2015 Triple Crown was a great horse, American Pharoah, had some setbacks physically and missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last November. Baffert had him on a tight schedule to get ready for the Derby and had him race twice at Oaklawn Park. He might have been a short horse in the Derby but once he got by that hurdle, it was all downhill. Many felt that the effort that Espinoza had to put into him in the stretch was a sign of weakness but it turned out that he needed the race and was light years better than the competition in the next two legs. Where he goes from here is anyone's guess. I would think the Haskell Invitational (G1) is the favorite and a trip to Saratoga is unlikely. If he were to come to the Spa, it would attract record crowds; as long as NYRA doesn't decide to limit them.
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