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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS FEBRUARY 23, 2007 by Dick Powell If you can figure out last Monday's Southwest S. form, you're a better handicapper than I am. HARD SPUN (Danzig) was high up on everyone's list of Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders. The winner of his first four starts, he came into the Southwest off a sharp score in the Lecomte S. (G3) at Fair Grounds in his two-turn debut for Larry Jones. In the Southwest, which has a purse of $250,000 and should be upgraded to graded stakes status next year, Hard Spun drew the extreme outside post in the field of nine but was still sent off as the 1-2 favorite. With five weeks since his last start – when he earned a career-best BRIS Speed figure of 101 – it looked like all systems were go. Yes, the post might hurt, but this is a colt that showed brilliant speed in prior starts and always seems to break well. On Monday, jockey Mario Pino broke Hard Spun about a half-step too slow and, instead of putting the pedal down, took him back and tried to rate him. He was four wide on the first turn and when the field bunched up at the half-mile pole, he was five wide. The stoutly-bred son of Danzig made up some ground on the far turn but was working to hard to do it, and when he turned for home, he was not able to maintain his momentum. To the shock of many in the crowd of nearly 29,000 at Oaklawn, Hard Spun was leg-weary in the stretch and finished fourth, beaten three lengths. If this had been Hard Spun's two-turn debut, I could possibly dismiss his performance because his connections tried to rate him and took him out of his game. But he showed good late energy in the Lecomte after making a monster middle move while on the lead, which makes the Southwest even more puzzling. And, there's nothing wrong with his pedigree. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find another nominee that has a sire and broodmare that has an average winning distance of 8.0. Of the 250 Triple Crown contenders with past performances on BRIS, only Irish-bred BRAINY BENNY (Ire) (Barathea [Ire]), MANDURAH (A.P. Indy) and PAVAROTTI (A.P. Indy) have both sires and broodmare sires with an average winning distance of 8 furlongs or more. After the race, trainer Larry Jones said that Hard Spun came out of the race well and speculated that he did not grab hold of the Oaklawn surface that day. He had worked brilliantly over it in his past two workouts, but tracks do change from day to day. Unlike Afleet Alex, whose Oaklawn defeat was correctly attributed to a viral infection that clogged his breathing passage with mucus, Hard Spun apparently scoped clean after the race. Horses, especially young ones, are entitled to a clunker now and then. This was Hard Spun's first, and we'll see if he can put it behind him. What I would really like to know is how many jockey agents have called Larry Jones trying to replace Mario Pino? As inexplicable as Hard Spun's race was, TEUFLESBERG's (Johannesburg) win was even more. A colt that always had promise and had competed in stakes company while still a maiden last year, he failed miserably in his two-turn debut in Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity (G1) last year when beaten by more than 21 lengths. Okay, maybe it was the brutal pace he pressed that day, or he didn't like Polytrack. After breaking his maiden next out at Keeneland going approximately seven furlongs on the Beard course, he made his next two-turn start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when he was beaten by nearly 40 lengths. Maybe he was in over his head. After two more sprint wins including a very sharp score in the Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds on a sloppy track, he bobbled at the start of the Lecomte, made a good middle move and then came up empty again, finishing nearly nine lengths behind Hard Spun. According to BRIS, he finished his three woeful two-turn races with Late Pace figures of 38 (Breeders' Futurity), 42 (Breeders' Cup Juvenile) and 68 (Lecomte). Not what one looks for the next time he tries two turns. But there he was on Monday at Oaklawn, rightfully dismissed at odds of 23-1 in the Southwest. Brooklyn Dodgers owner Branch Rickey used to talk about the concept of "addition by subtraction." Getting rid of a player could actually help a team get better, and trainer Jamie Sanders subtracted blinkers from the Teuflesberg equation and the early results were positive. Many form reversals are due to the hood being removed, with the horse suddenly having the ability to relax by being able to look around. Already naturally fast, Teuflesberg was able to use his natural speed and relax, a dangerous combination in two-turn mile races at Oaklawn. With the cagey Stew Elliott in the irons, Teuflesberg set a strong pace and when the field loomed on the far turn, he let it out a notch and drew away to a clear lead. Only Officer Rocket (GB) (Officer), who had a nightmare trip, was able to threaten, but his late rally fell 1 1/2 lengths short. Teuflesberg's Late Pace figure was a robust 94 -- quite an improvement over his previous two-turn finishes. With 13 starts under his belt, I have no idea if Teuflesberg can continue through the upcoming prep races and become a legitimate threat on the first Saturday in May. But with his one-dimensional running style, you know he'll be a major early pace factor to anyone that dares to challenge him.
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