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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING MARCH 31, 2007 Later maturing sires' offspring by Tim Holland Much has been written about sires that produce precocious runners and have a high win rate with their first-time starters. Indeed, debutants by such stallions as Five Star Day, Successful Appeal or Yes It's True are popular with horseplayers who follow stallion statistics. However, there are also profits to be made by knowing which sires' offspring need "seasoning," or a race or two before they can show their best form. To identify these sires, handicappers can use the TSN Sire Stat book which ranks all stallions by their runners' performance in several categories, including their win-rate as debutants, their average winning distance (AWD) as well as their "Sire Production Index" (SPI). The SPI is a number that quantifies the average racing class of a stallions' foals. The figure is based on the average earnings per start for all of the sire's foals which have started three or more times, and the higher SPI, the better the sire, with the average being 1.00. By looking at this figure and taking into account the first-time out stats and average winning distance, horseplayers can very quickly isolate decent sires whose offspring may need time, and sometimes longer distances, to excel. One high-profile example of a stallion whose offspring improve with racing and distance is QUIET AMERICAN. His SPI is 1.92, he rates a "D" for a less than 8 percent win rate with his first time starters (FTS), and his offspring's average winning distance is 7.6 furlongs. After making three unsuccessful starts in England, Quiet American was sent to America where he broke his maiden as a three-year-old before having his best season at four, with his career highlight being a win in the NYRA Mile (G1) at Aqueduct in 1990. At stud Quiet American has been consistently successful with about 40 stakes winners to his name, including the 1998 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Real Quiet as well as other champions Hidden Lake and Warrior Queen. In addition, Quiet American is making quite a name for himself as a broodmare sire. His daughters have produced the likes of last year's champion three-year-old Bernardini and also Saint Liam, whose Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) win assured him of the title of Horse of the Year in 2005. While it took Real Quiet seven starts to break his maiden, Quiet American is capable of siring precocious types. Indeed his daughter, Class Above, won her debut at Del Mar before winning the 2003 Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies S. by a whopping 16 lengths, a victory that helped her sire to rank number 51, his highest placing yet, on the year end Juvenile Sire List. However, the majority of the stallion's offspring need a race or two before being at their best, and it is from this knowledge that horseplayers can profit. One fairly recent example was Quiet Chris, who broke slowly in his debut at Turfway last fall before finishing 10th, beaten more than 20 lengths. Trained by Tony Reinstedler, whose charges are known to improve in their second start, Quiet Chris was an overlay when he returned $28.20 for his victory 2 1/2 weeks later when he was stepped up to a mile trip. Another offspring of Quiet American that is showing improvement with racing is the filly Folk who is scheduled to tackle the colts in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) on Saturday. In her first start Folk bore out on the turn, then finished a good second in her next start before putting it all together and breaking her maiden by more than 10 lengths in her third start when going one mile at Aqueduct. Her two races this year in Dubai have resulted in impressive wins and, depending on her performance on Saturday, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) could be in her future. Since many of the offspring of Quiet American are handled by well known trainers, value at the betting windows can sometimes be hard to find. By using the Sire Stat book, handicappers can uncover lower profile stallions that may be worthwhile to follow in this situation, and a few examples are listed here:
DEPUTY COMMANDER did not make his racecourse debut until the start of his three-year-old season in 1997, and that year the colt would go on to win two Grade 1 events and finish second in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Retired to stud, Deputy Commander has had reasonable success with such runners as Ten Most Wanted and Deputy Glitters. Like Quiet American, he does sire an occasional precocious juvenile, but the majority of his performers need one or two starts before they are at their best. Additional research reveals that 45 percent of his runners broke their maidens in their second, third or fourth start. The Bobby Barnett-trained Giant Commander is a good example of a daughter of Deputy Commander who provided betting value. Entered in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden at Turfway Park for her first start, Giant Commander was outrun while beating one horse home. For her second start, four weeks later, she was sent to Keeneland and stepped up to 1 1/16 miles in distance, which resulted in a win at 12-1. Like Reinstedler, Barnett is another trainer who is not known for producing many first-time out winners. This combination of patient trainers with slow developing horses is a strong handicapping angle. On the racetrack, UNTUTTABLE broke his maiden in his fifth and final race going 10 furlongs on the turf. Well bred, being by Unbridled and from the family of Mr. Prospector, Untuttable was retired to stud in Florida, where he has made a decent start to his stud career by siring three stakes winners from his first three crops and earning a respectable SPI of 1.29. Horseplayers should watch for offspring of Untuttable who are coming off a poor first start. Indeed, seven of 31 runners, or 23 percent, by Untuttable since January 2005 broke their maiden in their second lifetime start and more obliged third time out. This included Neilan, who had performed very poorly in his first two races at Gulfstream Park, where the chart comments read "slow start" and "rank, steadied first turn." For his third start Neilan had a new trainer, a large class drop and, maybe most importantly, time to mature which resulted in a $17.60 payout. Not all sires whose offspring need time and distance had to be route horses on the racetrack. Indeed, ARTAX was best known as a sprinter through his finest victory, the 1999 Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), but surprisingly he only earns a "D" for his first time starters while he has a respectable SPI of 1.17 and a speedy AWD of 6.3. Interestingly, Artax did not start out as a sprinter. He broke his maiden in his second start going 1 1/16 miles, drawing off by nine lengths, and in his next start, the 1997 Hollywood Futurity (G1), he ran a game race to be second to Real Quiet (Quiet American). The following spring he took revenge on that rival in the San Felipe S. (G2). After an unsuccessful Kentucky Derby effort followed by some subpar route efforts, Artax was switched to sprinting and he quickly found Grade 1 success in the Carter H. While his runners have a sprint AWD, they are also effective routing. Indeed, his son Gimme Credit, trained by the patient Tim Hills, ran in six sprint maidens before winning in his first try at a mile, which he followed up with four straight route wins on the turf, including two stakes races in New York. Another sire whose progeny need a race or two yet own a fairly low AWD is FREE HOUSE, who won the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the Pacific Classic S. (G1) and the Santa Anita H. (G1) as well as finishing in the money in all three legs of the Triple Crown in 1997. Free House's best representative as a stallion was multiple Grade 2 winner House of Fortune, who earned just shy of $1 million and who, like many of his offspring, broke her maiden in her second start. Value can be found following the offspring of the gray, as evidenced by the $14.40 payoff generated by the third-time out Santa Anita win of Freesgood or Buzz the Tower's $20.60 mutuel when he scored at Turf Paradise, also in his third attempt. The five sires discussed above are all fairly well established, but one young stallion whose offspring appear to need time to mature and a race or two before showing their best is MIZZEN MAST, whose first crop are now three-year-olds. Mizzen Mast, who is by Cozzene and is from the family of 1977 Kentucky Oaks (G2) winner Sweet Alliance and Shareef Dancer who won the 1983 Irish Derby (Ire-G1), started his career in France, where his last race was a second-place finish in the 2001 Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1). Sent to America, Mizzen Mast proved his adaptability through a win over seven furlongs on the main track in the Malibu S. (G1) later that year. Standing for $15,000 at Juddmonte Farms in Kentucky, Mizzen Mast's first season seemed slightly disappointing, with just 10 of his 82 two-year-olds ending the year as winners, earning the sire 20th place in the Leading First-Crop Sires list. However, as of March 28, Mizzen Mast is in a more respectable eighth place in the Leading Second Crop Sires list, partly thanks to Moonee Ponds who won the Bedanken S. last Sunday. Out of Lotka (Danzig), who won the 1986 Acorn S. (G1), Moonee Ponds lost her first two starts before she was victorious in her initial route attempt, returning $18.40. After that, she was switched to the turf which led to two more wins, including the recent stakes race. Others by Mizzen Mast that broke their maidens in their second or third race and returned handsome dividends are: Crow's Nest: Laurel 10/27/06. Second start, first route, first turf; paid
$113.60. As one can see, it pays for handicappers to pay attention to any offspring of Mizzen Mast that has lost his, or her, first one or two starts and is being switched to a route, either on the main track or the turf. Here are a few three-year-olds by this sire, with their trainers and the track where they last raced, that may be worth a close look when they next race: Dockmaster: Gulfstream, Dale Romans.
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