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HANDICAPPING FEATURE JULY 26, 2007 Winners are Winners and more… by Steve Zacks Probably the best source of winners for today's race is a horse that wins races. Preferred subsets of winners are firstly the last-out winners followed by those who won their second back. Two strong subsets of this latter group are those who had a genuine excuse in the race following the win or those who were experimenting -- a significant change of surface, distance or class -- in that race and are returning to a more likely spot today. In either case, the horse should have at least shown some effort in the losing cause. Strong Angle for Saratoga and Del Mar I went back and reviewed my own personal database to explore two complete meetings of Saratoga and Del Mar for the summers of '04 and '05. While there was some variation from year to year, and from track to track, the results are very revealing. Over those four meetings, 495 of 1,431 races were for maidens, leaving 936 races for previous winners. From those 936 events, 361 winners were victorious in either one or both of their previous two starts. That is more than a quarter of all the races run on the flat, almost a 40 percent win rate! Those numbers don't hold up at most other tracks. For comparison, I went back and looked at the other tracks on the circuits (Belmont and Aqueduct in New York; Santa Anita and Hollywood in California) during the same time period. Horses winning either one or both of their previous two starts were successful about 25 percent of the time, an approximately 15 percent lower win rate than at Saratoga and Del Mar. From the 361 winners at Saratoga and Del Mar, 60 percent of them were repeating; 25 percent had won two back; and 15 percent were on a roll, winning at least their last two starts! More than 100 of these repeaters paid more than $10; about 60 paid higher than $15; 37 paid more than $20; and a handful returned between $50 and $100. These are two good meets to pay particular attention to recent winners. And the history shows that you do not have to give up price to bet on a live runner! Why Horses Win Races The foremost reason why horses win races is because they are in good current form or condition or shape. Less talented horses frequently beat better horses because they are in condition. Recent winners are usually full of confidence too! A top performance comes only when a horse is prepared for it both physically and mentally. A good recent last-race running line, changing energy allocation, or the worktab in the case of a layoff returnee are all likely indicators of improved or top condition. Secondly, the horse is properly spotted for class, surface and distance. This is not always a known fact -- at least not until the race has been run. More often than not, a "good" favorite will have demonstrated the ability to do what is asked of him today. But the untried horse is the source of good prices every day. Trainer history, pedigree information, preparation and energy allocation are all supplemental sources of information that can be used to support giving a horse in top physical and mental condition, to which the recent win attests, a chance to do something different today. A third reason is that the horse has the proven ability or is about to demonstrate that ability in the case of an improving or young and developing runner. The fewer the starts a horse has had, the more likely he will run an improved number today. While one can project that he will improve a certain number, he might far exceed that. A fourth reason is often the race shape or set-up. A lone speed horse has a better chance in a field of closers just as a lone closer does in a field of need-to-lead types. However, running style is frequently a function of trainer and jockey intent and the actual pace of the race. Many horses are tractable and more adaptable than appears at first blush. And all those projections go out the window if something happens as the gate opens. A fifth reason is a reasonable trip. This may be as simple as a horse avoiding trouble at the gate and not having a horse fall in front of him. It may involve saving ground and not going wide. It may involve only that the rider not screw it up. And occasionally you even get lucky and bet the second- or third-best horse on a day when the favorite manages to find a whole of trip trouble! A winning shipper should always be given a careful look; particularly when he is leaving an active track to test his skills elsewhere. This occurs with regularity all over the country in stakes races, and every day in various claiming and allowance events on the East Coast. These shippers do win; often at square prices too. Two Warning Signals Of course not all winners show up next time out and it is easy to be disappointed by some you think will show up. Be wary of any horse that won off a perfect trip, a soft pace scenario or who ran a significant new final top or double top number (pace and final time). Maiden claiming winners are particularly poor prospects unless they are appropriately spotted. Only if claimed should they even be considered in the allowance ranks. In the case of the "toppy" horses, time, preparation and trainer history with repeaters may be your best guides. An assumption that the horse is as racing-sound today as he was last time is being made; rest assured that this is not always the case! Suspicious absence of money on a logical contender or unexpected activity on a lesser prospect nowadays is often a signal that actions have been taken behind the scenes -- be it legitimate pre-race vet work now that the horse is in improving form, or something that should not! Insiders often seem to know what is going on. (The best addition to one's betting strategy may be a paddock expert who can gauge a horse's changing physicality from one race to the next.) Horses who win races regularly usually meet many or all of the conditions outlined above. Only competitive types win numerous races. Winning owners and trainers like to win and make sure their horses are properly spotted when they are ready to win. Being competitive is very often a function of not being overmatched! It would seem that many horses also know there's no point in trying hard when they are facing superiors. It also pays to note trainers that have completely different records for different outfits. Some 20-plus percent trainers would have a much higher win percentages if they were not saddled with several proven losers either tied to one outfit or being protected for breeding purposes. It can be a very useful addition to a database to tie the trainer to the ownership and to learn which outfits play to win and which have other agendas. This knowledge can also bring a whole new perspective on evaluating trainer statistics. *** From time to time, we will stray beyond the bounds of horse race handicapping and touch on issues related to horse racing and the horseplayer (a group of which we are an active participant). Not all is perfect and we hope we can sometimes be a small catalyst to positive change. Take Out Every horseplayer knows that to beat the game he has to beat the take! Theory and reality show that the lower the takeout, the better chance the player has. As a result, there is usually a higher handle. Ellis Park's current experiment shows that there is hope for the horseplayer yet. Ellis Park's new ownership/management team worked with authorities and horsemen to lower the takeout for their daily Pick 4, which takes place on the last four races. They did not fool around either by seeking a minor reduction in the takeout. They reduced it all the way to 4 percent! That's right, just 1 percent a race. Just imagine how your bottom line for the last few months would look if you added another 10-20+ percent to it. And not only that, they put the serial wager back in the hands of every player with a minimum bet of 50 cents, so it is possible for even the small player to attack the bet with $10 or $20. The daily pool struggled to hit $20,000 last summer; recently the handle has been exceeding $40,000 on a regular basis. Kudos goes to the track, its management and the horsemen for supporting such a move. Each and every horseplayer in North America should jump in and support this experiment -- and especially those who play the serial wagers. By so doing, horseplayers will be sending a message to track managements around the country: lower the takeout and we'll support those tracks that do. Treat us right (or at least better then you currently do) and we will return the favor! The Ellis meeting runs through Labor Day so there is plenty of time to get involved. The next stop is Laurel Park in its 10-day meeting commencing August 10. They will be offering a reduced and blended take out in the neighborhood of 10 percent. Should their handle take any kind of a significant jump, it will continue to reinforce this message. As a horseplayer, it is in your best interest to have a lower take. Unless you are a political activist and wish to call and write politicians and race track executives, the easiest way to cast your vote is by putting your dollars through the windows at the tracks that are interested in the horseplayer and are offering the lower takeout. Sooner or later, the others will get the message or be left behind in the dust.
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