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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT JANUARY 7, 2015 by James Scully Let's get the 2015 Kentucky Derby Report started. The Derby Report is always a labor of love and the last few years have returned dividends as I've selected three straight winners on top: California Chrome and Orb were no surprise as favorites but keyed massive exotic payouts, and 15-1 I'll Have Another delivered as the 10th choice in the wagering. I plan on extending the win streak in 2015, thanks for following along. The January 3 Jerome served as the first scoring race of the New Year and El Kabeir vaulted to the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard (21 points) with a 4 3/4-length victory that changed the narrative surrounding the Scat Daddy colt. His performance stands in stark contrast to a head win in the November 29 Kentucky Jockey Club where the finish line arrived just in time, with El Kabeir barely withstanding the late runs of Imperia and Eagle after establishing a clear lead on a moderate pace (:47 2/5 and 1:12 2/5). The gray Florida-bred showed no signs of tiring while finishing with gusto this time around. Contested at a mile and 70 yards on Aqueduct's inner track, the Jerome played much differently as El Kabeir was forced to closely track the early lead while traveling wide from his outside post. The John Terranova-trainee launched his bid nearing the completion of the far turn, powering past eventual runner-up Nasa and tiring pacesetter Ostrolenka at the top of the stretch as he rolled home much the best. El Kabeir earned an outstanding BRIS 101 Speed rating, a career-best, and his E1 (105) and E2 (112) were once again very strong. It's encouraging to see him rate successfully because the Zayat Stables colorbearer will bring plenty of speed to any future engagements. The improving sophomore appears likely to remain in New York, with the February 28 Gotham and April 4 Wood Memorial as targets. His seasonal debut was easy to admire and with a Grade 2 win at Churchill Downs to his credit, El Kabeir deserves plenty of respect at this stage. However, the speedster still has class and distance questions to answer: I don't know if he beat much in the Jerome and his bloodlines merit at least some trepidation (Scat Daddy throws primarily sprinter/middle-distance specialists and El Kabeir's dam is a half to the classy sprinter Too Much Bling). Formerly known as the Gulfstream Park Derby, the January 3 Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park was held at a one-turn mile and didn't offer any points toward a Kentucky Derby berth, but the past two editions have yielded Triple Crown runners, with Itsmyluckyday proving best in 2012 and General a Rod and Wildcat Red finishing one-two last year. Bluegrass Singer proved impossible to catch as the 2-1 second choice, opening up a commanding lead in upper stretch en route to a 1 3/4-length victory, and the Bluegrass Cat gelding deserves kudos for his second straight win at Gulfstream, registering a 101 BRIS Speed rating on Saturday and a 103 number for his 4 3/4-length tally over allowance/optional claiming rivals on December 17. Trainer Marcus Vitali plans to stretch him out next time, but Bluegrass Singer has probably made all seven starts at one turn for good reason. Runner-up Ami's Flatter could be the horse to take away from the Mucho Macho Man. The Josie Carroll-trained colt was making only his second appearance and dirt debut, breaking his maiden at seven furlongs over Woodbine's Polytrack on November 9, and the long-striding colt waited until the stretch drive to offer his best, closing fast to finish nearly nine lengths clear of third. Out of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop, Ami's Flatter is by the A.P. Indy sire Flatter, whose offspring are often late-developing, and the Ontario-bred sophomore rates as an interesting dark horse. Todd Pletcher unveiled a promising three-year-old at Gulfstream last weekend in Outlash, who got up in the final strides going seven furlongs on January 4. The Unbridled's Song colt figures to relish longer distances given that he's out of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold who is closely related to two-time Sword Dancer Invitational winner Telling. Upcoming The January 10 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita is the lone race in the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" series this weekend and the one-mile event will continue to offer a line on El Kabeir through Lord Nelson, a Bob Baffert runner who finished fifth as the favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Calculator, who missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile due to a foot injury, is also expected to return in the Sham. The Peter Miller-trained colt is still a maiden from four starts but finished second to American Pharoah in both the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes, one spot better than subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red in the latter.
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