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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT JANUARY 21, 2015 by James Scully Erratic behavior was on full display in the January 19 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park as Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) took a right turn toward the grandstand, going completely off course as Far Right (Notional) surged up the rail to grab the 10-point winner's share. The January 17 Lecomte at Fair Grounds also offered points to the top four finishers and featured International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus), who vaulted to second on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard (22 points). He's campaigned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who were honored later that evening at Gulfstream Park with their second consecutive, and fourth overall, Eclipse Award for outstanding owner. Smarty Jones Oaklawn features a short stretch run at the one-mile distance and Mr. Z appeared well on his way to victory after turning for home with a clear lead. Jockey Jon Court gave him a left-handed tap of the whip to keep him focused but that doesn't adequately explain his behavior -- Mr. Z became completely discombobulated. Even when Court finally stopped him from charging head-first toward the stands, Mr. Z appeared to hop for a few strides in disgust. He had no intention of maintaining a straight path to the wire, performing like a horse with something physically amiss, but his problems are apparently mental -- owner Ahmed Zayat said the chestnut colt returned to the barn completely sound, with the x-rays all coming back clean after the third-place finish. He's earned 12 points, placing in four scoring races already, but Mr. Z's Kentucky Derby prospects took a severe hit in the Smarty Jones. After acting poorly at times last year, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee has regressed at age three. The goal at this point should be turning around his mental issues. Far Right was far back during the early stages, had to wait in traffic momentarily on the far turn, and surged late up the rail to win going away by 1 3/4 lengths. However, his final time was a pedestrian 1:38 2/5, good for only a 92 BRIS Speed rating. That number pales into comparison to the 96 he earned in his previous outing, a troubled third in the $1 million Delta Jackpot (G3) on November 22. Far Right was probably best in the Jackpot, nearly falling when shut off nearing the completion of the far turn, and came again late in a determined effort. It's easy to admire the fight he displays and jockey Mike Smith believes the Ron Moquett-trained colt should handle more ground, saying Far Right "won with something left." With that being said, Far Right is a poor candidate on paper for longer distances. His sire, Notional, is a speed influence who will need to be partnered with the right mare to produce a classic type. And Far Right is from the female family of classy sprinters Big Jag and Reneesgotzip. Runner-up Bayerd ran well in his three-year-old bow for Steve Asmussen and displayed commendable juvenile form, capturing the December 14 Springboard Mile at Remington Park. But his Speed numbers are light and the pedigree (by champion sprinter Speightstown and out of a mare by champion sprinter Cherokee Run) is slanted toward shorter distances. Lecomte International Star, a New York-bred son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, appeared comfortable on dirt after racing primarily over turf/Polytrack last year for trainer Mike Maker. Overlooked at 9-1 in the one-mile and 70-yard Lecomte, he rated in midpack before advancing along the rail on the far turn and had to alter course for clear sailing in the stretch, closing fast to overhaul War Story (Northern Afleet) and Tiznow R J (Tiznow) with about a sixteenth of a mile remaining. International Star drew off nicely by 2 1/2 lengths under the wire, registering a 96 BRIS Late Pace number, but his 94 BRIS Speed rating was disappointing. He'll need to run faster against expected deeper competition next time. A maiden winner going six furlongs on Belmont's turf, International Star finished second in the grassy With Anticipation (G2) when stretching out to two turns for the first time. He followed with a victory in the Grey (G3), earning 10 points toward a Kentucky Derby berth on Woodbine's Polytrack, and recorded a fast-finishing ninth, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, as a 36-1 outsider in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). The bay colt switched back to dirt for the November 29 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, earning a single point for a non-threatening fourth, and continued to show more in the Lecomte. Longer distances don't appear to be a serious concern with his pedigree; it's just a matter of whether he'll be good enough. War Story broke a step slow and offered a fine rally, threatening to win in midstretch before coming up a little short. The runner-up finish marked his first career setback. It was an encouraging stakes debut for the Tom Amoss-trained gelding, who posted a pair of easy wins over maiden special weight and entry-level allowance rivals, but War Story will need to keep progressing from a Speed-figure perspective (86-87-91). Tiznow R J, a 13 1/4-length maiden winner in his previous outing, can keep building upon a solid effort in his first start against winners. The Asmussen charge broke on top, surrendered the advantage by the conclusion of the first turn, and came again with a wide rally entering the stretch. He got a little weary, bumping repeatedly with War Story, but kept fighting admirably to the wire, missing second by a head. Eagle (Candy Ride) proved to be a huge disappointment as the 3-1 favorite. A close third in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he gave fans a brief thrill when rallying wide into contention turning for home but weakened down the long stretch at Fair Grounds, retreating to be a well-beaten seventh. Upcoming The Road to the Kentucky Derby series makes its first stop at Gulfstream Park this year with the $400,000 Holy Bull (G2). Ten sophomores will square off at 1 1/16 miles and the top draws include Frosted (Tapit) and Upstart (Flatter). Frosted exits an excellent second in the Remsen (G2) in which he was probably best -- the winner took advantage of an inside speed bias and Frosted was forced to travel wide the entire way. After breaking from post 13 last time, the Kiaran McLaughlin-conditioned gray colt figures to show speed from his rail post Saturday. Upstart finished second in the Champagne (G1) and third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). The riddling earned one of the top figures by any juvenile of 2014, a 106 BRIS Speed rating, for his victory in the restricted Funny Cide at Saratoga last summer, and will look to overcome post 8. Bluegrass Singer (Bluegrass Cat) is the wildcard -- the gelding exits a pair of sharp scores going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, netting a 103 Speed rating for a 5 3/4-length romp over allowance/optional claiming foes before registering a 101 for his 1 3/4-length tally in the January 3 Macho Mucho Man. Marcus Vitali announced plans to stretch out Bluegrass Singer following the Mucho Macho Man, but the trainer cross-entered him to Saturday's Hutcheson (G3) at seven furlongs. Bluegrass Singer is a play-against for me in the Holy Bull. The 1 1/16-mile distance doesn't favor him and the late-running Keen Ice (Curlin) doesn't need to win for trainer Dale Romans -- bigger targets lay ahead. He displayed an awesome finishing kick breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs and ran well for third in the Remsen. First Down (Street Sense) and Frammento (Midshipman) are a couple of unheralded sophomores that I'm interested in seeing -- both turned in smart performances breaking their maiden last year and could develop into quality stakes performers at age three.
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