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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT FEBRUARY 25, 2015 by James Scully The Fountain of Youth was one of three stakes races offering points toward a Kentucky Derby berth over the weekend (February 21-22) and the Gulfstream Park feature delivered plenty of controversy as Upstart (Flatter) wound up being disqualified, enabling the Todd Pletcher-trained Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid) to remain unbeaten in his third career start. The Risen Star (G2) shared the Saturday spotlight with the Fountain of Youth and Lecomte (G3) winner International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus) captured his second straight graded stakes at Fair Grounds, driving to a one-length decision over Lecomte runner-up War Story (Northern Afleet). The Southwest (G3), which was run six days later than originally scheduled after freezing conditions canceled the Presidents Day program at Oaklawn Park, featured an encore performance from Far Right (Notional), who carried his winning form from the January 19 Smarty Jones forward while rallying boldly over the sloppy track. I'll also mention Khozan (Distorted Humor), Royal Delta's half-brother who remained unbeaten with a 12 3/4-length allowance win at Gulfstream on Sunday. The Pletcher trainee made his career debut on January 24 and will get one opportunity to qualify for the Kentucky Derby when making his stakes and two-turn debut in the March 28 Florida Derby (G1). Fountain of Youth The lone two-turn dirt race at Gulfstream Saturday, the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth was contested over a drying-out track that played slowly, resulting in an unflattering final time (1:46.28) that included a tedious last three-sixteenths of a mile (34.58). The bubble burst for Frosted (Tapit), who looked like a winner approaching the conclusion of the far turn before faltering mightily. Upstart came under a drive before the midway point of the bend, as jockey Jose Ortiz realized that he had to go after Frosted, and Itsaknockout, who had raced close to Upstart through the early stages, also appeared in trouble as he lost ground rounding the turn. The whole complexion of the race changed entering the stretch. Frosted went from looking invincible to spent, sticking his head up in the air as he completely idled after turning for home, and Upstart quickly drew even as Itsaknockout also came charging on the far outside to challenge for the lead. And then the bumping started. In the end, I thought Upstart was the best horse on this day and would've won without any contact, which was initiated by the tiring Frosted drifting out into him. That started a chain reaction that forced Upstart to bump into Itsaknockout. Jockey Jose Ortiz did his mount no favors by continuing to whip Upstart left-handed as they drove to the finish line and the first bumping incident probably didn't result in the disqualification; Upstart continued to drift out slightly after bumping Itsaknockout the first time. But Upstart had also started to regain control, was pulling away from Itsaknockout when he drifted out the second time -- the contact wasn't extreme and I thought Upstart was clearly going the better of the two late. Give Itsaknockout credit for rallying to challenge with about a sixteenth of a mile remaining, and any analysis of these incidents involves plenty of conjecture, but I thought Luis Saez quit riding Itsaknockout in the latter stages because he knew he couldn't win. He did a good job of embellishing, acting like he had to protect his mount after being sawed off and nearly toppled, but that wasn't the case and plenty of ground still remained before the finish line. The stewards were put in a no-win situation, faced with a decision that would've been criticized either way. Chances are Itsaknockout will face adversity again this spring, especially in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. The lightly-raced colt gained valuable seasoning while making his stakes and two-turn bow -- he didn't make his first start until early December -- and is bred to relish classic distances. Itsaknockout earned a commendable 102 BRIS Speed rating when making his second outing at a one-turn mile on January 4, but his other two Speed figs (86 for maiden win and 91 in the Fountain of Youth) are a little on the slow side. I would love to see Itsaknockout get away from the confines of Gulfstream Park next time, don't know how making every start over a single track benefits any Derby prospect, but Pletcher mentioned the March 28 Florida Derby as a logical target. He employed the same strategy in 2009 with the talented Dunkirk, who finished 11th at 5-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby before a runner-up effort in the Belmont Stakes. Upstart did not run back to his spectacular performance in the January 24 Holy Bull (G2), registering a 105 BRIS Speed rating for his 5 1/2-length decision that afternoon, but trainer Richard Violette openly guaranteed as much, saying he had under-trained Upstart for the Fountain of Youth and was expecting a regression from the dark bay ridgling. It was unrealistic to expect Upstart to keep moving forward in every start -- five of the last six Kentucky Derby winners failed to earn a Speed rating as high as 105 in their previous starts -- and I loved how he dug in gamely and was pulling away at the wire, finishing first by a widening 2 3/4-length margin. He wound up posting a decent 95 BRIS Speed rating and figures to be much tighter for his next appearance, likely the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 4. Frammento (Midshipman) made up a lot of ground on the tiring leaders during the final furlongs to be third, 4 1/2 lengths back of Upstart, but he still has much to prove for two-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito. Risen Star After breaking from the far outside post (10) in the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star, International Star was guided to the rail before the conclusion of the clubhouse turn and saved every inch of ground the rest of the way, closing through a tight spot to reach the lead turning for home. The bay colt dispatched pacesetter St. Joe Bay (Saint Andann) by the quarter-pole, but War Story was revving up his rally in midstretch. That rival nearly drew even with a little more than a sixteenth of a mile remaining, but International Star had more in reserve and reasserted control, finishing full of run under the wire to score by a comfortable one-length margin. The Risen Star lost some luster in the preceding weeks when Sham (G3) winner Calculator (In Summation) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) hero Texas Red (Afleet Alex) were forced out due to injury, and the disappointing effort from 3-2 favorite Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro), who never got involved recording a one-paced fifth in his second dirt start, leads to questions surrounding the overall quality of the field. The race turned out similar to the Lecomte, with International Star closing fast along the inside to easily prove best as War Story finished a clear second, but I'm willing to give International Star a lot more credit now than I did five weeks ago. The Mike Maker-trained colt is moving in the right direction from a BRIS Speed rating perspective. Winner of the Grey (G3) on Polytrack last October and a non-threatening fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), International Star did not run fast last season but concluded 2014 with a string of increasing figures (85-87-89). Those numbers have continued to rise this year, with International Star posting a 94 for the Lecomte and a 97 in the Risen Star. And given his stamina-fused pedigree and improving form, those numbers are eligible to keep moving forward as he stretches out in distance this spring. I still want to see him prove it against better company, with a deeper cast expected for the March 28 Louisiana Derby (G2), but it's easy to appreciate the moxie and finishing kick that International Star's displayed in both starts at Fair Grounds. War Story has finished first or second in all four career starts, but it's fair to say International Star has his number at this point. The Tom Amoss-trained gelding has been in position to challenge before losing ground in the final sixteenth of a mile both times and I don't know whether he can show more while stretching out in distance next time. Keen Ice (Curlin) made up ground belatedly to record a non-threatening third, a slight improvement from a well-beaten fifth in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Similar to Frammento, the well-bred colt rates more as a plodder at this stage for Dale Romans, but the dedicated closer is not without hope moving forward. Southwest Far Right settled about 10 lengths off the pace during the opening half-mile of the 1 1/16-mile Southwest and began to advance steadily while traveling wide through the latter stages of the far turn. Jockey Mike Smith angled his mount toward the inside entering the straightaway and Far Right accelerated along the rail to reach even terms with the leaders passing the sixteenth pole, edging away late to score by three-quarters of a length. After benefiting from Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) taking a right-hand turn in the stretch of the Smarty Jones, Far Right clearly proved superior to his foes over the wet track. The hard-trying sophomore has improved this season for Ron Moquett. However, I can't get excited about Far Right's Kentucky Derby chances for two reasons. Firstly, any close-up pedigree analysis will discount his chances at 1 1/4 miles. Sire Notional is a speed influence who needs to be partnered with the right mare to produce a classic type, and Far Right comes from the female family of classy sprinters Big Jag and Reneesgotzip. Secondly, any hope for him to outrun pedigree concerns has to be predicated upon being fast. And with BRIS Speed ratings of 93 (Southwest) and 92 in his last two starts, Far Right does not come close to meeting that threshold -- those numbers won't cut it against deeper company this spring. Kentucky Derby winners Big Brown (2008) and Smarty Jones (2004) didn't possess ideal pedigrees for 10 furlongs, but they recorded BRIS Speed ratings in the 110-range beforehand, numbers that towered above the competition. One example I always go back to is Lawyer Ron, a tremendous racehorse and promising sire who died far too soon. In 2006, Lawyer Ron dominated three consecutive Oaklawn preps -- the Southwest, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby -- but his BRIS Speed ratings for those performances (99-98-101) were not elite in that year's Kentucky Derby field. He was proven at distances up to 1 1/8 miles, winning the Arkansas Derby by 2 3/4 lengths at 1-2 odds, but Lawyer Ron was bred to be more of a middle-distance type and did not thrive when stretching out in trip at Churchill Downs, checking in a well-beaten 12th as the 10-1 sixth choice among 20 runners. Supporters of Far Right, and other pedigree-challenged horses, will bring up California Chrome as a counter-argument, citing that his immediate pedigree wasn't suited for 10 furlongs, but California Chrome earned a 101 Speed rating in his last juvenile start as well as a 102 (San Felipe) and 106 (Santa Anita Derby) in his final two prep races. California Chrome had the top last-race BRIS Speed rating in the 2014 Derby field. If he remains healthy, Far Right remains eligible to make a lot of money for his connections in races like the Ohio Derby, West Virginia Derby (G2) and Super Derby (G2) this summer. The Truth or Else (Yes It's True) offered an eye-catching move into contention on the far turn and edged Mr. Z by a nose for second while making his 2015 debut for Kenny McPeek in the Southwest. He'll attempt to keep moving forward next time. Given his outrageous antics in the Smarty Jones, Mr. Z took a step in the right direction by maintaining a straight path throughout the Southwest. The speedy colt wanted the early advantage, taking a 1 1/2-length lead at the half-mile point, and fought on gamely despite tiring in the lane. He lost second on the bob -- the colt always seems to come up short when a photo is involved. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas remains high on Mr. Z's potential this spring, but it's tough to like the fact that his Speed ratings have dropped precipitously (92 in the Southwest) from the conclusion of his 2014 campaign (97 and 100 in his last two juvenile starts). One-turn allowance winner It's been more than 100 years since the last unraced two-year-old captured the Kentucky Derby and Khozan will lack foundation if he makes it to the starting gate, but talent remains a dangerous weapon and the $1 million purchase looks like he could be any kind. He easily captured his career debut at a tricky seven-furlong distance, drawing off by 3 3/4 lengths, and continued to turn heads while making his first start against winners at Gulfstream last Sunday, scoring by a 12 3/4-length margin. The dark bay colt registered eye-catching BRIS Speed ratings of 103 and 101 for those performances. Pletcher had the option to run Khozan against stakes rivals, the same tactics he employed with Far From Over (Blame), who went straight from a debut maiden win to capture the Withers (G3), but elected to keep Khozan at a one-turn mile distance against five overmatched foes. Khozan was highly impressive but I don't know what a one-turn allowance accomplishes other than essentially being a paid workout. Khozan will be compared to other talented unraced juveniles like Bodemeister and Curlin, who both managed to place in the Kentucky Derby, but those horses at least had the advantage of multiple two-turn starts leading up to the Kentucky Derby. We have to wait until the March 28 Florida Derby to see Khozan attempt a route of ground. Upcoming The Road to the Kentucky Derby series is on a one-week hiatus, with no scoring races scheduled this weekend, but the third pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be offered Friday-Sunday.
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