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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT MARCH 11, 2015 by James Scully A trio of important prep races were held March 7, each offering points on a 50-20-10-5 scale toward a Kentucky Derby berth, and favorites delivered with flying colors. Dortmund (Big Brown) shrugged off challengers Prospect Park (Tapit) and Bolo (Temple City) while leading throughout the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita, striding away to a comfortable 1 1/4-length decision. Conditioned by three-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert, the unbeaten Dortmund could establish himself as the Kentucky Derby favorite with another impressive victory in the April 4 Santa Anita Derby (G1). Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) opened his three-year-old season with a spectacular five-length romp in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), racing up close to the pace before accelerating away in upper stretch. The top juvenile performer won with seemingly plenty left in the tank and heads a deep contingent of Todd Pletcher-trained Kentucky Derby hopefuls. El Kabeir displayed a remarkable late kick in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, closing from ninth during the early stages to post a convincing 2 3/4-length score -- this is the same gray colt who led wire to wire in the 11-horse Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in late November and recorded century-topping BRIS Early Pace ratings in five previous starts. His versatility is commendable and the hard-trying El Kabeir leads all Kentucky Derby prospects with 75 points, but his pedigree rates a legitimate concern as he stretches out in trip this spring. San Felipe The physically-imposing Dortmund continued his progress in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe, taking another step forward after a pair of all-out wins. The 4-5 favorite registered a career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating while proving much the best in the end. The San Felipe featured a talented field of 10 despite missing a trio of heavy hitters out west. Firing Line (Line of David), who finished a narrow second to his bitter rival Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and February 7 Robert B. Lewis (G3), bypassed the San Felipe as well as the Baffert-trained American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), who comes back in this Saturday's Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn; and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Texas Red (Afleet Alex), who recently returned to trainer Keith Desormeaux's Santa Anita barn after recuperating from a foot abscess. The well-regarded Prospect Park gave an outstanding account in his stakes debut, rallying boldly to outfinish Bolo by a half-length for second despite racing greenly in the stretch with his head cocked sideways. Prospect Park is easy to label as a rapidly-improving type for trainer Clifford Sise Jr. and it will be no surprise to see him continue to show more off this highly-encouraging performance. Bolo ran huge considering that he missed training time in late January/early February and was making his dirt debut. Last seen offering a brilliant turn of foot in the December 27 Eddie Logan, Bolo closely stalked Dortmund before offering a serious challenge on the far turn and held commendably through the stretch, missing by less than two lengths. He clearly handles dirt and possesses nice tactical speed as well as stamina-infused bloodlines, and the Carla Gaines-trained colt looks like a natural candidate for further improvement. Lord Nelson (Pulpit) remains a talented type for Baffert -- the Grade 2 winner is unbeaten in three starts around one turn -- but continued to show distance limitations, at least at this point in his career, with a well-beaten fourth. Previously unbeaten Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense) got bumped around and nicked up while being forced to steady in traffic after a slow start and deserves a pass for a troubled eighth in his 2015 debut. Trainer Jim Cassidy has the option to look elsewhere for an easier spot, especially since Ocho Ocho Ocho only has 10 points, but he appears willing to try again versus another deep field in the Santa Anita Derby. Dortmund seized the early initiative because none of his rivals wanted it, similar to his front-running victory in the Robert Lewis, but the massive chestnut showed last year that he is more than content to stalk the early action. He provides jockey Martin Garcia with options, breaking well from the starting gate in all five starts. Sire Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but he's passed a lot of speed to offspring. The staying power of Dortmund's female family (damsire Tale of the Cat) has also come under criticism, so his threshold for 1 1/4 miles will remain a talking point in the coming months. But the long-striding colt has given no reason for concern on track -- Dortmund showed an affinity for Churchill Downs when crushing allowance foes last November and remains eligible to outrun any pedigree concerns like his sire did in 2008. Tampa Bay Derby Carpe Diem turned an expected difficult assignment into a landslide, with his seven opponents strung-out behind him. Ami's Flatter (Flatter) improved off a dull fourth in the January 31 Sam F. Davis, rallying to be a good second, 2 1/2 lengths clear of pacesetter Divining Rod (Flatter) in third. It was another five lengths back to Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon), who recorded a one-paced fourth in his first start since breaking his maiden at Gulfstream. Ocean Knight (Curlin) entered with a two-for-two mark following a nice win in the Sam Davis but sustained his first setback in bitterly disappointing fashion, beaten a whopping 29 1/4 lengths in seventh as the 8-5 second choice. He registered only a 62 BRIS Speed rating while following the same pattern of Frosted (Tapit) and Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro), stablemates in the Kiaran McLaughlin barn who went off form with massive flops in their most recent prep. Carpe Diem galloped home as the even-money favorite, winning for the third time in four starts, and his only defeat, a troubled second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile could prove beneficial this spring given how the chestnut colt has crushed the competition in every other start. He posted a career-best 100 BRIS Speed rating when romping by 6 1/4 lengths in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last fall at Keeneland and may continue to shine in the April 4 Blue Grass (G1). Pletcher will bring a one-for-40 record into the Kentucky Derby, but many of those runners lacked the pedigree for the 1 1/4-mile distance. That doesn't look like an issue for the well-bred Carpe Diem, who is the most promising Derby hopeful for sire Giant's Causeway since Eskendreya, a Pletcher trainee who projected to be a heavy favorite before being injured in the weeks preceding the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Carpe Diem received a 96 BRIS Speed rating, a little disappointing but still a respectable figure among this year's contenders. I'm expecting him to earn a much better number in the Blue Grass. Ami's Flatter caught the eye finishing up well with the addition of blinkers and Lasix for trainer Josie Carroll. Out of Victory Gallop mare, he made his career debut in November and may continue to improve at longer distances with racing experience. Divining Rod will be headed to the turf eventually but continued to perform admirably for trainer Arnaud Delacour. We'll see whether connections make him a late nominee to the Triple Crown. Gotham El Kabeir did not beat any proven rivals, but he earned a new measure of respect when rallying from off the pace in the 1 1/16-mile Gotham. Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in late November and the Jerome (G3) over Aqueduct's inner track in early January, El Kabeir was favored at 6-5 following a runner-up finish in the February 7 Withers (G3). He broke well on Saturday but eased back entering the first turn, trailing by 12 lengths after the opening quarter-mile. Jockey C.C. Lopez never panicked and after making gradual headway down the backstretch and into the far turn, he swung El Kabeir four wide turning for home. The colt inhaled rivals as he straightened into the stretch and swept to the front passing the eighth pole, cruising to the wire while well in hand. A son of sprint/middle-distance sire Scat Daddy, El Kabeir is out of a mare that counts multiple Grade 2-winning sprinter Too Much Bling as a half-brother. El Kabeir registered a 95 BRIS Speed rating winning the Gotham and will be tested for both class and distance going forward. Tiz Shea D (Tiznow) was make his first outing for Bill Mott and rallied belatedly up the rail for second, a highly respectable effort given that it was only the second career start for the late-starting sophomore. He didn't make his career debut until February 7 and winning the Kentucky Derby isn't a realistic goal, but Tiz Shea D established himself as a promising sort. Dubai Mubtaahij (Dubawi) may not be well-known to American horse racing fans, but the Mike de Kock-trained colt could be Churchill Downs-bound with a first or second-place finish in the March 28 U.A.E. Derby, a 1 3/16-mile event on Meydan's dirt track that offers 100-40-20-10 points to the top four respective finishers. A Triple Crown nominee, the Irish-bred Mubtaahij earned his first stakes win while stretching out to 9 1/2 furlongs in Saturday's Al Bastakiya, rallying from just off the pace to easily defeat the well-regarded Sir Fever, who sustained his first loss. Mubtaahij didn't show much in a pair of turf starts at Newmarket last year, but he's really come on since switching to dirt this winter, posting three wins and a head second in four attempts. Upcoming The 1 1/16-mile Rebel at Oaklawn Park is the lone scoring race this weekend and the juvenile champion, American Pharoah, will make his first start since September. He's expected to roll on the front end against an uninspiring cast of challengers that includes Bold Conquest (Curlin) and The Truth or Else (Yes It's True).
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