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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT MARCH 25, 2015 by James Scully Firing Line (Line of David) did not disappoint in Sunday's Sunland Derby (G3) and Dubai Sky (Candy Ride) carried his improving turf form to Polytrack in Saturday's Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park. The "Championship Series" races offered points on a 50-20-10-5 scale to the top four finishers and we are now in the home stretch toward the May 2 Kentucky Derby, with three major weekends up ahead. Point values increase to 100-40-20-10 as the Florida Derby (G1), Louisiana Derby (G2) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) take center stage this Saturday. Sunland Derby After of a pair of narrow setbacks to Dortmund (Big Brown), Firing Line avoided his nemesis by shipping to the New Mexico desert. The confidence-building victory also erased any pressure he would've faced remaining in Southern California for his final prep since he only had eight points to his credit. On a Sunland Park track that played extremely fast, the front-running colt traveled easily through opening splits of :22 1/5, :45 2/5 and 1:09 before drawing off masterfully from the overmatched competition, with Gary Stevens sitting chilly as the 1-5 favorite cruised to a 14 1/4-length decision in the 1 1/8-mile race. The two opponents that prompted him on the early pace -- Why Two (Bob and John) and Malibu Moon (Malibu Moon) -- both finished more than 30 lengths behind Firing Line, who registered a career-best 101 BRIS Speed rating for the $400,000 cakewalk (winner's payout). Firing Line's performance should erase any doubts about the quality of competition that Dortmund had been facing -- the West Coast's three-year-old division is much deeper than the rest of the country -- but the talented colt's propensity for longer distances remains unsolved. His sire, 2010 Arkansas Derby upsetter Line of David, was able to carry his speed up to 1 1/8 miles before finding 1 1/4 miles too taxing, checking in 18th, and the same concerns surround Firing Line. Especially when considering that Dortmund had his number the last two times at 1 1/16 miles -- where will Firing Line find something extra to defeat that rival at an extended distance? I have my doubts but am not willing to give up completely on the Simon Callaghan-trained Firing Line. For one thing, he's battle-tested, dueling through the stretch drive of both the Los Alamatos Futurity (G1) and Robert B. Lewis (G2) before just missing. Those experiences, coupled with his fine tactical speed, could prove beneficial in a 20-horse field and the hard-trying Firing Line is eligible to be in the thick of things turning for home. And Firing Line's supporters can take comfort in the fact that Kentucky Derby history is littered with examples of prep race reversals. Here four are in the last 20 years: Firing Line will need to keep moving forward over the next six weeks and handle the extra ground, but he's got a chance to make a serious impact on Derby Day. Spiral Dubai Sky has required plenty of time between starts and bettors who didn't have him in the 1 1/8-mile Spiral can blame the South Florida weather. The Bill Mott-trained colt was set to run in the grassy Palm Beach (G3) three weeks earlier but was redirected to Turfway Park's main event after a torrential rainstorm washed out Gulfstream Park's February 28 program. That fortuitous turn of events resulted in a 2 1/4-length victory and a berth in the Kentucky Derby field. Dubai Sky raced up close to a contested pace before being given his cue from Jose Lezcano leaving the far turn and accelerated to a clear lead. He was never seriously threatened through the stretch drive of his graded stakes debut. After racing exclusively on turf, the bay sophomore made a seamless transition to Polytrack and stretched his win streak to four while adding first-time Lasix. His 103 BRIS Speed rating was easily a career-best. A distrust of synthetic/turf horses making their first start on dirt makes me want to toss Dubai Sky immediately, but it's worth mentioning that he is a full brother to the versatile Twirling Candy, a graded stakes winner on three different surfaces (dirt, synthetic and turf). However, a look at that classy performer's past performances shows a glaring weakness that doesn't bode well for Dubai Sky's Kentucky Derby chances: Twirling Candy was outstanding at distances up to 1 1/8 miles, winning seven-of-eight attempts, but he went zero-for-three at 1 1/4 miles, losing as the favorite each time. Dubai Sky will receive a serious class check next time after squaring off against suspect company throughout his career -- Firespike (Flower Alley) missed second by a neck in the Spiral after being beaten by 21 lengths in the February 28 John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway. Supporters will point to Animal Kingdom, who captured the 2012 Kentucky Derby in his first dirt start, but I can't envision Dubai Sky being a significant factor. Upcoming The $1 million Florida Derby features a rematch between the top two finishers in the February 21 Fountain of Youth (G2), Upstart (Flatter) and Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid). The former will be looking to run back to his monstrous 5 1/2-length score in the January 24 Holy Bull (G2) that netted him a 105 BRIS Speed rating, one of the top figures earned by a Kentucky Derby hopeful this year. Itsaknockout remained unbeaten via the disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth and will attempt to give trainer Todd Pletcher back-to-back wins in Gulfstream Park's signature race. Pletcher will also be represented by Materiality (Afleet Alex), who improved his record to two-for-two with a convincing score in the March 6 Islamorada at Saturday's 1 1/8-mile distance. Ami's Flatter (Flatter) is another contender of note for conditioner Josie Carroll, recording a fast-finishing second to the highly-regarded Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G2). The top four from the February 21 Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds will be back for Saturday's $750,000 Louisiana Derby including International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus), who will be looking to cement his status as a top Kentucky Derby contender for Mike Maker following consecutive wins in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star. The runner-up from those races, War Story (Northern Afleet), looms as a top challenger once again and Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) is a newcomer to watch following third-place efforts in the Smarty Jones and Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park for four-time Kentucky Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas. The U.A.E. Derby will kick off the stakes action overseas and Mubtaahij (Dubawi) is the horse to beat following his 2 1/2-length score in March 7 Al Bastakiya. The Godolphin colorbeater has posted three wins and a head second from four starts over the Meydan dirt track and the Mike De Kock trainee is expected to travel for a Kentucky Derby bid if he runs well Saturday.
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