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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT APRIL 1, 2015 by James Scully The first round of major final prep races is in the books, with favorites International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus) and Mubtaahij (Dubawi) capturing the Louisiana Derby (G2) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2), respectively, and 9-5 second choice Materiality (Afleet Alex) extending his mark to three-for-three in the Florida Derby (G1). Anticipation runs even higher for this Saturday's races as top contenders square off in the Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1) and TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial (G1). Florida Derby Materiality is an up-and-coming colt with good speed. He broke well in the Florida Derby, racing on the front end with a longshot before asserting control entering the far turn, and took everything the well-regarded Upstart (Flatter) had to offer before edging away late to a 1 1/2-length decision. Over a slow and tiring Gulfstream Park track, the bay colt registered 103 E1 and 115 E2 Pace numbers en route to an excellent 105 BRIS Speed rating. And Upstart posted a 103 Speed while finishing 12 1/2 lengths clear of third. The final time (1:52.30) is misleading given the way the track was playing. It was a grueling performance for the top two finishers, one they'll need to keep moving forward from while stretching out another eighth of a mile five weeks later, but Materiality and Upstart will at least exit an encouraging performance as opposed to Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid), who stamped his Kentucky Derby ticket winning the February 21 Fountain of Youth (G2) via disqualification but never fired in a dismal fourth-place showing Saturday, beaten 21 lengths. Materiality didn't make his career bow until January 11, easily winning a six-furlong maiden special weight in the slop by 4 1/4 lengths, and was freshened nearly two months in advance of his next appearance, rolling to a 5 3/4-length win in the March 6 Islamorada at 1 1/8 miles. He came back only three weeks later in the Florida Derby, a quick turnaround for a Todd Pletcher trainee, and received the first real test in his brief career. The unbeaten colt has never lost ground in the stretch, increasing his margin at the last two calls in every start, and Materiality owns a nice set of BRIS Speed figures (96-100-105) as well as a commendable pedigree for 10 furlongs. But he's also had things his own way most of the time and rates as a prime candidate for a regression at Churchill Downs. Lightly-raced horses with no two-year-old foundation have a terrible record in the Kentucky Derby. Foundation is important given the extreme demands of the 1 1/4-mile race early in a horse's three-year-old season. I've said previously that an unraced juvenile will eventually win the Kentucky Derby, especially in this era of lightly-raced horses, but that individual needs to be able to overwhelm the competition (think of the field Big Brown was facing in 2008). That scenario appears highly unlikely for Materiality this year given the talent at the top. Materiality remains a highly-promising individual, one that must be considered a prime contender for important future races such as the Belmont Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational (G1) and Travers (G1), but the fact that he's never raced outside of Gulfstream hurts his chances as well. The Kentucky Derby is not the spot to try something new and it should come as no surprise that every winner in the modern era raced at multiple venues beforehand -- experience matters. I liked Upstart entering the year and jumped on the bandwagon following his convincing win in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G2) in late January, but his last two performances have left something to be desired. And I'm doubting his ability to stretch out effectively next time. Upstart opened his racing career with flashy wins in a pair of Saratoga sprints, including a career-best 106 BRIS Speed rating for the restricted Funny Cide at 6 1/2 furlongs. That's not something you want to see, a Kentucky Derby contender run his fastest race sprinting at age two, and the presence of champion sprinter Housebuster as the second damsire is probably more pronounced than I originally wanted to believe. Upstart steadily lost ground over the final five-sixteenths of a mile in the Florida Derby, laboring mightily in the latter stages. He's still a talented colt who would be tough to ignore if the Kentucky Derby was at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles, but I can't envision him thriving on the stretch out. Third-place Ami's Flatter (Flatter) has quality concerns but the stoutly-bred sophomore can't be ruled out of Kentucky Derby exotics consideration due to his finishing kick, with late-running longshots Commanding Curve and Golden Soul finishing second the last two years behind hot early paces. Didn't like the decision to run Itsaknockout in the Florida Derby given that he had raced exclusively at Gulfstream and the colt appeared to get very little out of the race. He could still have a nice future, but difficult to imagine him being ready for his best on May 2. Louisiana Derby International Star's ability to corner well on the far turn could prove beneficial in the Kentucky Derby. He launched another eye-catching move in the Louisiana Derby, accelerating past rivals along the rail before swinging out for the stretch drive, and determinedly ran down the pacesetting Stanford (Malibu Moon) to win by a neck. He wasn't facing the stiffest opposition all year at the New Orleans oval, and his BRIS Class rating Saturday (119.8) paled in comparison to Materiality's Florida Derby (122.4), but International Star's improving form for Mike Maker is easy to admire. The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus had never won on dirt before this season, breaking his maiden on Belmont Park's turf and capturing the Grey (G3) on Woodbine's Polytrack last year, and he's moved forward in each start since opening 2015 with a victory in the Lecomte (G3), posting BRIS Speed ratings of 94-97-99. His 99 Louisiana Derby figure was compromised by a moderate early pace that didn't play to his strengths. International Star laid it all on the line while switching back to the wrong lead in deep stretch, registering an impressive 107 BRIS Late Pace number given the early fractions, and the hard-trying colt is extremely game. He may not be good enough to win on the class hike, but International Star figures to receive the right set-up in the Kentucky Derby and I'll include the fast-finishing colt underneath in exotics. Stanford turned in a big performance in his first Kentucky Derby qualifying race and the improving colt will bring speed to the first leg of the Triple Crown. He's bred for longer distances, but the Pletcher charge has recorded his lone wins at five furlongs (maiden) and six furlongs (February allowance/optional claimer). His ability to get away to an uncontested early advantage led to a career-best performance in the Louisiana Derby, but different circumstances next time could easily compromise his chances. I'll look for more down the road from the promising runner. War Story (2.40-1) nearly went favored over International Star ( 2.30-1) but supporters hoping to see him put it all together came away deeply disappointed. He never threatened recording a well-beaten third, a step back from respectable runner-up efforts in the Lecomte and Risen Star (G2). I've seen nothing that suggests a turnaround for the gelding in the Kentucky Derby -- War Story has now lost ground to International Star in the stretch of three straight races -- and he's a bad actor in the starting gate, which won't help his chances in a 20-horse field. The moderate pace didn't benefit fourth-placer Keen Ice (Curlin) but his inability to make up any ground on the far turn was the most disappointing facet of his performance. The deep closer only passes rivals after straightening into the stretch and that recipe doesn't work in the Kentucky Derby -- Keen Ice would need to be accelerating into contention on the final bend to have even a puncher's chance at a minor award. U.A.E. Derby I tabbed U.A.E. Derby winner Mubtaahij as a serious contender in a blog I wrote for TwinSpires.com earlier this week (click here for my analysis) and will reiterate one key point: Mubtaahij does not resemble any of the false contenders that shipped over previously from Dubai. Previous Dubai horses were either too lightly-raced and/or ill-equipped to handle the 1 1/4-mile distance, but trainer Michael De Kock hasn't followed the failed playbook employed by conditioners Aidan O'Brien and Saaed bin Suroor in past years. Since breaking his maiden on December 31, Mubtaahij has raced four more times on Meydan's dirt track. The colt upped the ante in every start, narrowly dropping his stakes debut at a mile before posting a comfortable 2 1/2-length decision over the well-regarded Sir Fever (Texas Fever) in the March 7 Al Baskiya at 1 3/16 miles. He continued to improve while stepping up to face deeper company at the same distance last Saturday, offering an outstanding turn of foot to take a commanding lead by midstretch before being taken under wraps through the final furlong of an eight-length decision. Mubtaahij is peaking at the right time for a dangerous trainer and faces a 1 1/4-mile trip that he should relish -- he will certainly change the narrative regarding Dubai shippers (who are dismissed outright by many handicappers) if able to challenge our best three-year-olds on dirt. Mubtaahij will be one to follow once he gets to Churchill Downs -- his stock figures to keep rising if he trains forwardly under the Twin Spires. Upcoming The California region is arguably much deeper than the rest of the country and Dortmund (Big Brown) will headline a strong Santa Anita Derby field that includes Prospect Park (Tapit), Bolo (Temple City) and One Lucky Dane (Lookin at Lucky). This grouping could play a serious part in the Kentucky Derby outcome. Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) is listed as the even-money favorite over seven rivals in the Blue Grass at Keeneland and his affinity for the oval -- romped by 6 1/4 lengths in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last fall -- is an advantage. He figures to be tighter for his second start back and I want to see improvement from a speed-figure perspective given that Carpe Diem earned only a 96 BRIS Speed rating for a most facile Tampa Bay Derby (G2) win. Grade 3 hero Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense) is looking to rebound from a troubled effort in his 2015 bow and brings excellent speed to the mix. The rest of the field, including Classy Class (Discreetly Mine), Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) and Frammento (Midshipman), are all either maiden or allowance winners only. The TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial lost a key contender when Far From Over (Blame), who hadn't raced since early February, was removed from consideration Tuesday due to an injury. That leaves Gotham (G3) and Jerome (G3) scorer El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) as the one to beat at Aqueduct. His main foes are expected to include Daredevil (More Than Ready), Frosted (Tapit) and Tiz Shea D (Tiznow).
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