|
|
KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT APRIL 23, 2015 by James Scully I spent some time breaking down the Pro & Cons of Kentucky Derby contenders in a TwinSpires.com blog post this week and am looking forward to previewing the race after post positions are drawn next Wednesday. In this week's Derby Report, I'll take a look at the field based on potential run style, using four categories. Horses are ranked in each by point totals from qualifying races. Early types American Pharoah - He's arguably the quickest member of the Derby field but Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza have suggested that American Pharoah can rate seven or eight lengths behind a possible hot pace, taking plenty of kickback for the first time in career before delivering his best. I'll believe it when I see it -- speedster has been first or second at every point of call except when he finishing fifth in debut. Materiality -- Won't be surprised to see him drop farther back in the early stages but improving colt remains eligible to show speed if he breaks forwardly, registering 103 E1 and 115 E2 BRIS Early Pace ratings in front-running Florida Derby score. Firing Line -- Gary Stevens knows how to nurse speed, winning the 1988 Derby aboard the wire-to-wire Winning Colors, and Firing Line exits a track record-setting performance where he wasn't going to settle off the early action. Could be a little headstrong as well following a six-week freshening and expect him to be involved from the start. Stanford -- Set the pace in both starts since stretching out to a route and only realistic chance to make an impact will be a forwardly-placed trip. Ocho Ocho Ocho -- Smallish colt possesses plenty of natural speed and connections may not want to see him get caught up in any congestion from off the pace. Pressers/stalkers Dortmund -- Big horse rallied from sixth in the early stages to capture debut and is expected to revert to rating tactics after displaying high speed in all three preps this year. Doesn't figure to be too far back, possibly the first flight behind the early leaders. Carpe Diem -- Could find himself in midpack but possesses enough speed that jockey John Velazquez will probably look to tuck in right behind the front-runners. Upstart -- He likes to settle just off the early action and will be interesting to see where he settles during the opening stages -- probably unrealistic to expect him too far back given his many century-topping BRIS Early Pace numbers. Mr. Z -- Trainer D. Wayne Lukas would probably love to try and strike from just off the pace, but speedy colt could wreck those plans if too gung-ho from the starting gate. Bolo -- His wins have come on or very close to the lead and possesses enough tactical speed to be in the top half of the field during the early stages. Midpack/late runners Frosted -- Like how he displayed a new dimension last time, retreating to last between calls on the clubhouse turn of the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial, and figures to take back before offering his best. Mubtaahij -- Mike De Kock said his charge can't match the speed of the top contenders and expects Mubtaahij to be doing his best running late. But he's fast enough to be ahead of a handful of dedicated closers early. El Kabeir -- Led wire to wire in Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last fall but has changed his run style in recent starts, dropping well of the pace in the Wood and Gotham. Calvin Borel has captured multiple Derbys going last-to-first and won't be surprised to see El Kabeir retreat toward the caboose despite his decent tactical speed. Itsaknockout -- Could get shuffled back in the opening furlongs despite showing an affinity for racing within striking range early. Danzig Moon -- Rallied from off the pace to be a clear second in the Blue Grass and will be looking to do the same on Derby Day. Tencendur -- Earned a Derby berth with a much-improved second last time and New York-bred will be looking to grind his way forward with an outside trip. Madefromlucky -- Tailed off in Arkansas Derby and isn't quick enough to be close early in this spot. Deep closers International Star -- Accomplished colt (three for three in stakes this year) will be in no rush from the starting gate, looking to make one run. Far Right -- Devoid of early speed and a proven commodity in preps when rallying from the clouds. War Story -- He was nearly 10 lengths back before finishing second in Risen Star two back and trainer Tom Amoss is probably hoping to emulate the trips of Commanding Curve and Golden Soul, late-running seconds the past two years. Keen Ice -- He figures to be at least 20 lengths out of it early if he makes the field (21st in points presently). Frammento -- Another with absolutely no early foot who will attempt to do his best running in the latter stages if able to start (22nd in points). Bold Conquest -- His participation looks iffy (23rd in points) but no doubting the late runner's tactics if he makes it.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
