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by James Scully Dortmund (Big Brown) is my choice to win the Kentucky Derby. The big chestnut brings high speed to the equation and given his draw in post 8, with Firing Line (Line of David) to his outside, I'm expecting him to be sent right from the break. Dortmund is capable of adapting -- the athletic colt is more nimble than he looks -- and can sit close if necessary, but a wire-to-wire scenario is my prediction. I've reversed course in terms of pace projections and am no longer expecting ridiculous fractions to materialize, similar to the 2012 and 2013 editions that featured opening splits in :45 & change and 1:09 & change. Dortmund and Firing Line each drew well and I anticipate them establishing a favorable early positioning before settling on the front end -- the riders will be conscious of saving enough for the latter stages aboard these top contenders. And while a number of other rivals are exiting front-running performances, their best chance is to sit close instead of employing suicidal tactics during the early stages. None are as quick as Dortmund and Firing Line, with the exception of American Pharoah. And the last thing Bob Baffert wants to see is Dortmund and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) dueling early. Dortmund competed in the deepest preps this year in California and continued to get stronger each time out. He possesses the BRIS numbers, registering a 106 Speed rating last time, and still looks to be moving forward. According to all reports, Dortmund recorded a brilliant final workout at Santa Anita last weekend and has trained superbly since arriving at Churchill Downs. Dortmund will give Baffert his fourth Kentucky Derby winner. Underneath Frosted (Tapit) is a must-use in vertical exotics and any back-up tickets following his splendid score in the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial (G1) that netted a 107 BRIS Speed rating. He drew well in post 14, allowing jockey Joel Rosario to potentially avoid trouble in a congested field and will be making his second start since throat surgery, the same pattern Alysheba followed when capturing the Run for the Roses in 1987. Dortmund and Firing Line could run 1-2 around the oval and I'll use the other speed (Firing Line) in my exotic tickets. Bolo (Temple City) is a nice colt who exits a pair of commendable efforts, finishing third to Dortmund in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), and appears to have taken to the main track at Churchill Downs since arriving -- I like his chances to run well at long odds. American Pharoah has never been seriously tested and looks vulnerable to me stretching out to 10 furlongs, but I'll have to use the supremely talented colt underneath as well. I'll be keying those four horses in the exotics with Dortmund. As far as spreading deeper, Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) is a closer to watch for in the stretch drive -- the rapidly-improving sophomore appears to be training forwardly under the Twin Spires since his Blue Grass runner-up and figures to receive the right set-up for his late kick. Mubtaahij (Dubwi) will be doing his best running late as well and I was impressed with his turn of foot in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2). Don't know how he will adapt to the extreme conditions of the Kentucky Derby, but he still offers appeal. Frammento (Midshipman) is a potential bomber as well -- the deep closer was slow to round into form for Nick Zito but appears to be doing great presently, and he's been caught in slow-paced races; figures to receive a better set-up on Saturday. Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) is too good to dismiss completely, easily capturing both stakes attempts this year. I fear he could be compromised by post 2, but will use him on some tickets as well. $100 Bankroll $50 win 8 Enjoy the Derby!
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