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PREAKNESS REPORT MAY 8, 2015 by James Scully American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) captured the Kentucky Derby (G1) as the 5-2 favorite and the Bob Baffert-trained colt will be odds-on in the Preakness Stakes (G1) two weeks later. Since Affirmed recorded the last Triple Crown sweep in 1978, 33 percent of the Derby winners held form at Pimlico (12 of 36). American Pharoah displayed plenty of determination outfinishing Firing Line (Line of David) and Dortmund (Big Brown) and is still fresh with seemingly more to offer -- he could make it 13 of 37 with his best. The prep races were formful all year and the Kentucky Derby followed suit, with four of the top five betting choices filling the superfecta. The top three finishers reversed spots in the stretch drive but held throughout on a moderate pace. American Pharoah lost ground while wide but established good positioning during the early stages, up close tracking Dortmund and Firing Line in third. He advanced to challenge nearing the conclusion of the far turn and wore down his rivals in the latter stages. Dortmund and Firing Line both ran well in defeat will be seeking a measure of revenge in the Preakness Stakes. Outside the top three, Frosted (Tapit) and Materiality (Afleet Alex) turned in commendable efforts finishing fourth and sixth, respectively. After finding himself too far back after a rough start, Frosted came charging late to just miss third. The improving colt will skip the Preakness but could prove highly effective in the Belmont Stakes, with both previous wins coming in New York. Materiality started from an unfavorable inside post and missed the break completely in his fourth career start. The unraced juvenile was stopped in traffic on the far turn but regained his momentum in the final furlongs, closing stoutly past more than half of the field. He could be a major factor going forward. The Preakness field is still in flux, with Todd Pletcher waiting to make a decision on three notable horses: Materiality, Derby 10th-placer Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) and Competitive Edge (Super Saver), who established a new stakes record easily capturing the Pat Day Mile (G3) on the Derby undercard. Grade 1 winners Carpe Diem and Materiality would face an uphill task versus American Pharoah, but they're capable of a better than we saw at Churchill Downs. It's not Pletcher's style to run back two weeks later -- he prefers more time between starts -- and I don't expect to see Materiality, who made only his second career outing in March and was all-out winning the Florida Derby (G1), in the Preakness following a tough trip. Carpe Diem is a better candidate given his light campaign this season, prepping with a pair of easy wins where he was able to overwhelm the competition. The Derby didn't go the way his connections planned, but he figures to still have plenty in the tank and could show up with his best at Pimlico. The safe path for Competitive Edge would be to avoid the two-week turnaround and point toward the seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G2) on the Belmont Stakes undercard, but he's a wildcard that I would love to see in the Preakness field due to his speed. By 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Competitive Edge won his first two starts, including the Hopeful Stakes (G1), by a combined 16 lengths before heading to the sidelines for a prolonged absence. He returned March 27 with a near 10-length romp at seven furlongs and registered a career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating for the front-running, 4 1/2-length tally in the Pat Day Mile. Competitive Edge fits the profile of a Bernardini, a lightly-raced and fast colt who won two in a row before jumping up to make his two-turn debut in the 2006 Preakness, winning by 5 1/4 lengths, and Competitive Edge figures to impact the Preakness pace scenario if entered -- the talented colt has the speed to play catch-me-if-you-can. Firing Line and Dortmund remain top challengers and given their natural speed, it will be interesting to see what happens if either draws outside of American Pharoah in the post position draw. Divining Rod (Tapit) will be a new face in the crowd following a three-length win in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, but it's difficult to imagine him offering a serious challenge with only a career-best 96 Speed rating to his credit. I'll preview the Preakness Stakes next week.
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