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PREAKNESS REPORT MAY 16, 2015 Preview by James Scully The Preakness (G1) features a rematch of the top three Kentucky Derby (G1) finishers and similar to the first leg of the Triple Crown, post positions figure to dictate tactics. Dortmund (Big Brown) had no choice but to send after the Kentucky Derby post draw, inside of Firing Line (Line of David) and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) in the starting gate, and while he didn't run poorly weakening to the third, the massive chestnut didn't offer his best in my estimation. He was hounded every step of the way by Firing Line through the opening stages, with American Pharoah ideally situated as he tracked the top two in third, and Dortmund began to tire three-eighths of a mile from the finish line. The talented colt was able to dominate lesser rivals on the front end in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), registering a field-best 106 BRIS Speed rating in the latter, but Dortmund won his first three starts from just off the pace and that will ultimately prove to be his most effective run style. The tactical advantage swings his way this time, with American Pharoah starting in post 1, and Dortmund's need to show speed is eliminated -- trainer Bob Baffert doesn't want to see his two stars battling it out head to head in the opening stages. Jockey Martin Garcia should look to ease back and Dortmund can receive the perfect stalk-and-pounce trip his rival enjoyed last time. He rates the edge in Baltimore. American Pharoah will be pressured but his best chance for success is on the front end. There's plenty of debate surrounding his tactics -- some believe he will take back and stalk the front-runners again -- but that's a risky proposition, given the potential antics from other jockeys trying to beat the Derby winner, and connections don't want to see him jostled around or shuffled back in traffic. He may good enough to lead all the way but the bay colt was all out to post a narrow win last time, suggesting there is little separating the Derby top three at longer distances. I won't be surprised to see it go either way, but American Pharoah may have to settle for runner-up honors from a tough post. Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) rates an upset chance. A maiden winner in February, the well-bred colt has improved in both starts since making his stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), recording a second in the Blue Grass (G1) and a fifth in the Kentucky Derby. He was under heavy restraint through the opening quarter-mile at Churchill Downs, wanting to do more as Julien Leparoux worked to restrain him, and tried hard all the way despite wasting valuable energy early. The Preakness should set up better, with a stiffer pace expected, and if Danzig Moon can settle nicely passing the stands the first time, he looks capable of a formidable late kick. Firing Line drew the far outside post and figures to be involved from the start. He merits serious respect off the Derby runner-up, but the Simon Callaghan-trained colt did not change leads like previous starts, weaving in and out in the final furlongs. That leads me to question what he'll have to offer in the Preakness, but Firing Line remains very talented and is eligible to outperform expectations. I'll include him underneath in exotics. Divining Rod (Tapit) offered a sharp turn of foot to win the Lexington (G3) going away by three lengths and returns off a five-week freshening Saturday for trainer Arnold Delacour. After being more speed-oriented earlier this year, the Tapit colt brings an effective push-button run style to this class check and figures to receive a favorable set-up for his rally. His lower BRIS Speed ratings are a concern, but Divining Rod appears headed in the right direction presently and is one to consider for a minor award. Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) figures to push the early action before retreating. Bodhisattva (Student Council) and Tale of Verve (Tale of Ekati) probably aren't good enough to challenge. $100 Bankroll After tabbing Dortmund in the Derby, I'll stick with him at Pimlico and play the following wagers: $40 win Dortmund
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