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BELMONT REPORT JUNE 6, 2015 by James Scully American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) will attempt to become only the 12th American Triple Crown winner and the first in 37 years. The Bob Baffert-trained colt will be long-remembered for his tremendous stride, covering so much ground in an efficient manner, and the champion two-year-old colt brings a six-race win streak into the Belmont S. (G1). Despite his glowing credentials, I will try to beat American Pharoah on Saturday with Frosted (Tapit). Winner of the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial (G1) two starts back, Frosted has posted both of his career victories in New York and is based locally with Belmont Stakes-winning conditioner Kiaran McLaughlin. The gray colt was dogged by breathing issues earlier this year, but he underwent a surgical throat procedure after the Fountain of Youth (G2) that made a world of difference. Frosted came back to capture the Wood after the surgery, registering a field-best 107 BRIS Speed rating for the widening two-length decision, and trained forwardly for the Kentucky Derby. But the first leg of the Triple Crown wound up playing more like a turf race, with a slow pace as the front-runners waited until the final furlongs to quicken, and Frosted was too far back in the early stages, traveling widest of all to be a rallying fourth. The talented colt has the benefit of a five-week freshening and the projected pace scenario favors him, with Materiality (Afleet Alex) figuring to take the race to American Pharoah in the early stages. Frosted can sit a perfect stalking trip behind the top two before offering his best run. American Pharoah has passed every test so far but didn't come home fast in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1), netting only a 100 BRIS Speed ratings both times, and faces a difficult stretch out to 1 1/2 miles. He remains extremely dangerous with his speed, a legitimate threat to run his rivals into the ground up front regardless of whether Materiality pushes him or not, and I'll use him with Frosted in multi-race wagers. But there's little appeal supporting the odds-on favorite from a wagering standpoint. Madefromlucky (Lookin at Lucky) was no factor in a couple of Kentucky Derby preps at Oaklawn Park but enters the third leg of the Triple Crown off an encouraging win in the May 9 Peter Pan (G2), netting a career-best 99 BRIS Speed rating while showing an affinity for Belmont. He's conditioned by two-time Belmont winner Todd Pletcher and figures to be grinding his way forward in the latter stages. I'll include him on the bottom of the top three. Materiality sustained his first loss when missing the break in the Kentucky Derby, rallying to be a good sixth, and will likely be sent to the front from his outside post Saturday. Unraced at two, the Florida Derby (G1) winner is an extremely promising colt but could be softened up battling on the front end with American Pharoah. I respect his top three chances but am leaning against. Mubtaahij (Dubawi) is eligible to run better than he did in the Kentucky Derby, but I'm not sure how much he has left to offer. He raced five times this winter/spring in Dubai and the Kentucky Derby was not originally part of his plans. Trainer Mike De Kock merits plenty of respect but I can't get excited about the colt's chances. Keen Ice (Curlin) and Tale of Verve (Tale of Ekati) will be running late and I won't be shocked to see them factor into the bottom of the trifecta or superfecta, but not keen on their chances. Frammento (Midshipman) would be odds-on to bring up the tail of the field. $100 Bankroll $40 win Frosted Good luck!
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