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GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK JANUARY 16, 2008 by Steve Zacks Week Two in Review The second week was another with racing of moderate quality. There are a lot of lower-level claiming races that suit the local Florida horse colony. With the weather frequently decent and four turf races carded on most days, the fields are of good size. The racing was somewhat more formful with fewer bombs, and many of the higher-priced winners were still at least somewhat playable if not predictable. One issue the horse player has to deal with as things change every week is figuring out whether it is the horse, the jockey syndrome, the group of horses in the race -- the match-up -- or is it the course itself which is determining just how races are being won. Can one simply bet the best horse or horses according to his or her handicapping methodology, or is the surface itself impacting the outcome? On the surface, it appears as if there may have been a change from week one, but a more thorough examination indicates that may not be the whole truth. Horse, Jockey, Course or Match-up? Very early in the second week it became clear that there were a lot of forwardly-placed-runners winning on the dirt, and a similar trend was noticeable on turf when the rail was moved from the 84-foot to the 60-foot placement. What is the precise cause of this and is there a meaningful way to understand it? Is it the surface they are running on or is it the horses and the mix of horses itself, or a change in riding styles which is producing these trends? Or what is most likely, a little bit of each. The Course Several factors influence what happens on the race track. Most if not all North American dirt courses tend to favor horses that put themselves into the race early. This does not mean being in front necessarily, but being in the hunt by the turn. Regardless of whether a race track is banked or not, saving ground (i.e. being close to the inside) is always the shortest way home and except when the inside becomes a negative, is usually the best way to the winner's circle. The nature and type of the track surface itself -- dirt, artificial or turf -- and its usage may change during the course of a race meeting simply because it is in use morning and afternoon or evening. Add to that mix, the shape of the turns (dirt tracks are normally constant, while the placement of the rails can change the sharpness of the turns and the length of the straight-aways on turf courses), the degree of banking if any, and the moisture content of the surface itself (this includes track maintenance and watering, mother nature with rain, sunshine, temperature and wind and the constancy of any or all of these; turf courses are affected by the length to which the grass is allowed to grow). Each of these factors can and does influence how the track plays at any given point in time. There was the rain last week, and there has now been a week of racing in the afternoons and heavier use of the track in the mornings. This all helps to settle the surface. Gulfstream has always been known as somewhat of a speed-favoring inside track; not as much so since the remake of the main surface, but still of that ilk. While many of the races were won on the front end and by runners on the inside paths last week, closers that fit in their races were able to win with facility, especially if the pace mix of the race included multiple front runners. There are three additional factors which need to be analyzed before arriving at any conclusions about the influence and impact of the racing surface on the outcome of the races. The Horse Next take a look at the horses themselves. The class of the horse is the first factor; the better the horse in terms of inherent class the more likely he is to be able to deal with all of the various types of adversity. In other words, consistent Grade 1 performers will handle surface variances better than cheaper claimers. Their performance level may be affected by a supposed bias, but they will not be deterred save by the most severe of these. The lower-class animals need many more things to go their way for them to run their best effort. Competitive spirit is a function of class (at least in the context of this discussion); this comes into play in the context of today's match up. Proper preparation -- which includes both sharpness and fitness -- is another key to determining how well a horse will perform. Where the horse is in terms of both his short-term racing cycle and long-term development cycle may also influence just how well he runs today. And of course the runner's degree of soundness and well-being (how he feels from other than a motor-soundness perspective; does he have a head ache or a stomach ache or is he harboring an infection which will show up only with the stress of a race effort) will have a major effect on any horse's performance. Next we come to a horse's nature, which will determine his inherent running style. Watch young horses run around in a field; there are leaders and followers and then there are those who lag back and then fire forward. By their inherent nature, many will behave the same way on the race track. It is the mix of these types which leads us to the match-up, which has its maximum effect in the cheaper races. The greater the number of cheaper races carded, the greater the susceptibility of the results to be influenced by factors other than the horse himself. A lot of cheaper horses simply will not pass others and if things do not work out perfectly for them, they give it up. One will like get a better gauge of exactly what is going on by paying more attention to the higher-class allowance and stakes races. These are the races with the best horses and the ones who will show the class and determination to win under any circumstances. When these fit the same mold as the cheaper races, you may have found a significant influence of the surface on race outcomes. If, however, the better races are being won in a variety of running styles and paths on the race track, what you may have is a truly fair race track. While there has not exactly been an oversupply of these quality races, the evidence probably suggests that both the dirt and turf courses are fair enough to allow the best horse with a fair trip a chance to win! The Race Match-Up Of course the mix of running styles and the evenness of their abilities, generally known as the race match-up, to pace handicappers has a significant impact on how the race will be run. If a race is filled with evenly-matched speed horses and need-to-lead types, the pace is likely to be fast and contested, and will favor a deep presser or closer. If there is a dominant early speed horse in terms of quickness or speed points, he may dominate the other speed types and get a loose-on-the-lead trip. This is not a pace and race-shape seminar, but do understand that the match-up of horses in any race determines the setup and how the race is likely to be run. Take a close look at the past performances and charts for the two of Friday's turf races won by EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend A Buck) in the 8TH and ADRIANO (A.P. Indy) in the 5TH; these should provide a clearer look at what I am talking about. Both were well-backed at the windows, suggesting that they were well prepared, ready and well meant. Einstein went to the front on a slow pace and as the best horse was able to take it all the way. On the other hand, the 5TH featured a fast and contested pace (on paper and on the track as well), and Adriano exploded with an eye-catching move to blow by and run away from his field. Obviously, it was a combination of horses and race match-ups which determined the running style of these two winners; my contention is simply that this is what is happening in many, probably most of the races at the meeting. Fitness, horse, match-up and the jockey factor are determining the outcome of most of the races on both surfaces. (When it comes to the turf racing, the placement of the rail may influence and make it easier for certain running styles to prevail, but I am still of the opinion that the best horse, in the right match-up, can win from anywhere.) The attraction of winter meetings like Gulfstream and Santa Anita is the opportunity to see the young and developing stars in their development stages as three-year-olds. When these horses do run and show up fulfilling their unexplored potential, they can often run races no one could anticipate in advance. One can project improvement, but one cannot yet measure how much it will be. Anything can and often does happen in these events, and this can complicate the ability to read the race track. The Jockey Syndrome There is also the influence of what I call the Jockey Syndrome, which can have a major impact on the way races are run and hence the eventual outcome. To varying degrees, jockeys, just like trainers and handicappers, have varying degrees of race-reading ability and racing smarts. However when they as a group sense that a track is favoring a certain type of runner, or preventing certain running styles from winning, there will be a change in the way races are run on the race track. The jockeys will ride the race according to what they sense is happening; if they all try to take back the race will be paceless. This type of occurrence happened at Keeneland during the first meet with Polytrack. The riders were all holding their horses in reserve as in turf racing; closers were winning and the paces were very slow. The odd race was stolen on the front end too. So how much of it was really the track surface itself and how much of it was what the jockeys were doing (either on their own or under instruction from handicapping owner and/or trainer). Last summer's Del Mar meeting saw some of the same things happening. We have seen evidence of this type of behavior here last week when it was wet and this week when it appeared that the turf course was playing much more to early speed. And what happened then? Of course, a last-out, front-running winner took back and closed from behind to win again. All I can suggest is to be careful about rushing to judgment and do not be quick in discarding a horse you handicap because you think the track is favoring a certain running style, unless you have very solid evidence on multiple fronts, that it is. If the match-up of the race projects to give your selection a reasonable chance to win stay with it, unless the evidence is very strongly against you. If logical low-odds runners are winning with soft trips for their running style, it may be nothing more than racing luck via the race match up. If odds-on horses who really should be winning are losing with a similar running style, or bombers are getting home in front with a common running style or path, then maybe there is a change going on. If, on the other hand, there is a jockey change or your rider is a thinking one and the horse is tractable, they might just fool you. Interesting Stats for Week Two Winners The following figures are taken from my personal data base. The first figures are for last week's races. The following number, in [square brackets], is the figure for the meet to date. Number of Races During Week 2: 56 races [104]. Last Start for Winners: Calder -- 25 [49]; Aqueduct -- 3 [12]; Churchill Downs -- 9 [13]; Turfway -- 4 [5]; Gulfstream -- 2. Winners Stabled At: Gulfstream -- 23 [40]; Calder -- 12 [26]; Payson Park -- 2 [5]; Palm Beach Downs -- 5 [6]; Palm Meadows -- 15 [25]. Winners' Days Since last Race: 14 days or less -- 4 [12]; 15-30 days -- 13 [24]; 31-90days -- 32 [57]; 91+ days -- 5 [7]; first-time starters -- 2 [4]. Winners and Their Works: Worked since last race -- 41 [77]; worked six furlongs or farther 2 [8]; one work of at least 5 furlongs -- 23 [36]; worked within five days -- 14 [29]; either six or seven days before the race -- 14 [24]. Winners in Shape: Using at least one up-close call in the preceding start as a sign of being in shape: 37 [70]; repeaters 6 [16]. Winners' Running Style: Early turf (within two lengths at either or both of the first two calls, sprint or route) -- 7 [9] of 15 [31]; Early dirt -- 25 [45] of 33 [73]. Winners' Surface Changes: 10 [16]; off artificial surfaces- 4 [5]. Winners Class Changes: total -- 32 [62]; dropped -- 20 [38]; rose -- 12 [24] (all 16 of the last-out winners this meet rose in class!) Winners' Distance Changes: total -- 25 [43]; shortened up -- 15 [26]; stretched out -- 10 [17] (a furlong or more and/or added or dropped a turn). DAILY REVIEW: WEDNESDAY (1/9) A typical mid-week card with six claiming races, a maiden special and a pair of conditioned allowance races. Two winners paid off in double digits and a couple between 3-1 and 7-1; a fairly typical day for most race tracks. There was really nothing special to comment about other than what is contained in the specific categories below. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The dirt track was fair. While a cursory glance would suggest that it was front-running, the winners were generally logical and just fit the front-running profile. None of them had to do much other than run their good race to win. Eddie Broome's HONORED PRINCE (Double Honor) was certainly in good form coming off a win for the same price in the prior condition. He showed a recent work and was in light. On Pace figures, he fit in the match-up, though his final time was somewhat slow and as a five-year-old it might have been somewhat difficult to project improvement. But Broome plays his own game and does it well, seldom telegraphing intent when he wants to sneak one over. He (13-1) was certainly a square price, and if you do not focus on final Speed figures, perhaps a bit of an overlay. For a cheap claimer, Honored Prince set relatively quick fractions and took advantage of what may have been an improving inside. In the 8TH race, Kent Desormeaux took advantage of a wide-open rail to sustain MOSTBEAUTIFULSTORM's (Storm Boot) late bid against a slowing late pace. If any trends are developing, it could be to watch the inside paths on the dirt. If the horse is a speed horse, the outside posts seem to be breaking the best and seem to clear easily, though a lot of that has to do with the luck of the draw. It may be a trend to watch to see if it develops. The turf rails went from 84 feet to the 60-foot placement, and early runners fared noticeably better. However, it was possible to win from the back, so do not jump to too quick a conclusion. Two of the early-type winners were well backed, and one of the others was a shipper, GLORIOUS CAUSE (E Dubai), who was 12-1 in the morning line. He had two turf works at Palm Meadows, and the Ultimate PPs pointed to two turf winners from six starters under the dam and listed the sire at a respectable 13 percent on turf. Glorious Cause was making his second career start, his first on turf, and he was also dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $40k, so his 10-1 odds were not out of line. STAR DIXIE (Dixie Union) was the off-the-pace winner, scoring at 6-1, and rallied from far back to nail down the victory. She had shipped from Belmont and was returning from a layoff with solid and typical steady Stan Hough preparation. She fit snugly with this group on BRIS figures matching today's pars in her penultimate race, and her Late Pace number was the best of the group last time. Trainer Hough is excellent off intermediate layoffs and with the meet's leading rider at the time taking over may have been a bit of an overlay here, in my opinion anyway! Trainers and Jockeys of Note Todd Pletcher and D. Wayne Lukas are now tied atop the trainer standings with three each. A trio of others, Peter Walder, Eddie Kenneally and Broome, were winning for the second time. Vela(s)(z)quez -- Johnny V. and Cornelio were the names of the day. The former won two to move into second spot with Eibar Coa, who won a singleton, and the latter tripled to move to the top of the standings alone with eight. DAILY REVIEW: THURSDAY (1/10) It was mainly a claiming card with few exciting races. The decently priced winners were all exiting Calder races and had showed some merit in their most recent starts; all three had finished in the money last time and only the repeater was taking a significant class jump. As I have said before, if the horse fits relatively well and is in shape, and the connections have won with the horse before, do not forsake them for the shippers and high-profile-connection runners without careful consideration. In these cheaper claiming-type of races, the legitimate Florida-based horses do figure and do win their fair share at the very least. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf While reference to this week's lead commentary is useful here, both surfaces were skewed toward being up close at the first couple of calls. Only two of today's winners were not within two lengths at the first call and only one at neither of the first two calls. That race came on the turf where the pace was contested. In this instance, the winner was a tractable sort which was repeating. Last time, she went to the front to wire the field. Today she was held in reserve and came running late. The paper read of the form can fool you, as a visual of her previous start would have shown her to be a ratable type. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Terri Pompay ran a somewhat suspect runner but was able to add to her totals with PLURACITY (City Zip) at 10-1; it was suggested last week that she might be pointing to the meet. I heeded my own advice and took a flyer. Continue to watch her steeds. Tim Hills won his first of the meet with a horse that did not fit his m.o. perfectly. Edgar Prado won two races. DAILY REVIEW: FRIDAY (1/11) A rather Florida-esque kind of card today with six claimers and a fair track, with not much excitement happening. The day's racing was rather formful too. EINSTEIN returned with a soft victory, but perhaps the most impressive winner of the day was a sophomore shipper from Maryland. (see below) Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf: While the dirt may have favored inside and speed, it allowed winners to come from all over the place. I would suggest that if it is possible to figure out whether or not the pace will be contested is a big help in assessing where the winner will come from. Sometimes the BRIS Summary pages point to one horse with a running-style or pace-figure (either early or late) advantage; it is worth a glance for every race and may clue you in to winners -- or keep you from making some unprofitable wagers based on a misread of the pace scenario. When riders think the turf has gone from closer-oriented to front-running, you can count on the pace being faster and more contested. This has happened a few times over the last few days. While the balcony slingshot move may not work as well with the rails at 60 feet as it does when they are at 84, the best horse can win with any kind of running style -- if the pace is realistic -- and on any path. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Pletcher has added to his totals with a first-time-starter win, his second win in the last couple of days and is now atop the trainer standings with five. Helen Pitts won a couple, including the return of Einstein in a classified allowance on turf. Coa won a triple today to climb to the top of the trainer standings, and Eddie Castro won a couple. Horses or Races of Interest ADRIANO was sent out by Graham Motion for an impressive score. While he had a hot and contested pace to run at, his manner of winning by six-plus lengths was rather impressive. Any time a horse wins, even a preliminary allowance, by open lengths he is worth a look. His last five-sixteenths in about 29 seconds makes him one to respect next time out. He was dropping out of a stakes at Laurel and he's likely headed back to that level once again. For those who follow such things, the five-furlong work at Fair Hill before shipping south was a positive signal of readiness. DAILY REVIEW: SATURDAY (1/12) I, along with others in my circle, have found it difficult to get excited about the racing here -- at least from a quality standpoint. While there are some races that are interesting from a betting perspective, the lack of high-quality races has been a bit of a disappointment. Hopefully, things will change as the meet progresses. Perhaps when you have to pay for stall space you do not feel that you have to run your horse -- at least until he is very ready or you really want to. With bigger purses available elsewhere for claimers and later for allowance runners, reading trainer and stable intent is always essential at this meeting. Are they here to get ready to win later or are they pointing to other things later on? Beyond the Florida-based steeds that are winning a race or three daily of the cheaper variety for the most part, and young and developing sophomores with unexplored potential but which might turn out to be legitimate contenders for the big events later this spring, along with the older stakes horses that might be serious about readying for major upcoming events, reading intent is key. I of course find that using the works and preparation as a key signal can often turn me on to a horse that is likely to at least show up today. If a runner has a series of good works on a regular pattern, is placed in a logical spot for class, distance and surface, and is to be ridden by a competent individual, he is likely to be well-intended today. Why waste all that hard work if you are not serious? If works are sparse or there are gaps, and are not what the trainer usually does, perhaps this is a prep for a later on. If the Speed figures are not dominant and the word is not out, I/we might even get a price on the odd one. Being careful about reading intent and being very patient will likely help the bottom line. So far Einstein did get a good race in and did get win at a short price; how he would have fared if the pace was legitimate, and how hard he would have been used is a question will never be answered. But sometimes the goddess of racing is kind to you. Pletcher is normally one who is happy to win a lot of races for these smaller purses. The small difference in purses matters little as he is out to find what he has. One observation I have made over the years leads to a question about the jockey colony. Have you ever noticed that when the Pletcher stable is hitting on all cylinders that if the other riders allow his horses to run their races on the pace early, they are next to impossible to run down late? Johnny V is great at saving until they have turned into the stretch. There are often other speed horses in the mix, but so many of them sit and wait and if the inside is at least fair at Gulfstream, which it often is and appears to be now, doing that extra work outside on the turn is almost certain doom. We have all been watching this going on for years -- is it always the best horse or just the smartest ground-saving trip? Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf: While it was possible to win on both surfaces from far back, the way most of the races set up today, more winners were in contention early. Based on the Old Hat S. (G2), the dirt was probably quite fast, as was the pace of that race. The race set up for closer, with a fast and contested pace being predictable considering the match-up. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Pletcher added two more to his lead with a total of seven. Velazquez had a natural hat trick to end the day atop the standings with 11 in a congested leader board that will probably change some over the next couple of weeks. Horses or Races of Interest I have found it rather difficult to find exciting horses other than winners who impress so far and generally wind up destroying their fields when they do. Sure there are some slow starters and some troubled runners on dirt or turf, but they are just as likely to be either not well-meant or they do not do enough after trouble; or if you read some as not ready today, just how do you evaluate their form. When we see how they are prepared for the next out, we can give them a chance, but unless they have shown something special in a really good losing performance, I tend to wait to see what they face next time. GAME FACE (Menifee) a last-out maiden winner at Aqueduct looked the part of a promising runner going into the Old Hat. She more than ran to her second-choice backing with a smart display of middle and late speed to leave the rest of the field far behind in her wake. I did think (yes, before the race!) the public made a bad mistake in crediting Lovely Isle (Double Honor) with favoritism coming off soft-paced victories against claiming types in New York; in today's pace match-up, she would have to show that she was a horse of true quality. While there have not been a lot of claimers running in the allowance/optional claiming races thus far at the meeting, they have not fared all that well so far. Occasionally even I have a good idea and am right. DAILY REVIEW: SUNDAY (1/13) It was a quiet day on the interest scale with the races lacking much excitement, though the stewards were forced to take action in the stand when there was too much action on the track. This resulted in a second-best longshot, MOUNTAIN GOLD (Mt. Livermore), being put up when the best horse, 3-5 favorite Comprise, interfered with the third-place finisher, resulting in his disqualification to third. Congratulations if you found that one in Race 2. In the 7TH race, Frost Giant (Giant's Causeway) may have been best but he did come out and bother PARADING (Pulpit), who was moved up to the top spot. As long as the stewards act in a consistent fashion... Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf There was a good mix of running styles on both courses both before and after the rains came for the last four races. Race 7 saw the turf course listed as good and the subsequent races were run over a track listed as sloppy. The finale was taken off the lawn. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Ten different trainers won races on the day. Three of the winners were coming back from mid-length layoffs with solid preparation. And yes folks, Elvis was in the building, with Trujillo hitting a triple. Chop Chop Chavez also won a pair. Velazquez is now atop the rider standings with an even dozen, courtesy of one of the day's two disqualifications. Horses or Races of Interest SUGAR SWIRL (Touch Gold) won the day's feature, the First Lady H. (G3), as the top weight and the 11-10 betting favorite. She had a perfect match-up which set up for her relaxed style, with so much speed in the mix, and won rather easily over the sloppy going. She should have another good one in her following this easy victory. DAILY REVIEW: MONDAY (1/14) Yesterday's wet conditions carried over to today with the races being taken off the turf, which made the card even less interesting than it otherwise would have been. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Off the turf was the order of the day for five of the nine races. Dirt was wet but reasonably fair, though early in the day and drying process the inside seemed to be the preferred path by riders and winners. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Walder won three claiming-type races, all with last-out claims stepping up in company. He is now in second spot in the trainer standings with six. Joe Orseno won a pair. Velazquez is secure in the lead -- at least for a few days -- with 15 victories; of note he regularly rides for the meet's two leading trainers. Horses or Races of Interest With a wet and drying track, multiple scratches and five races taken off the grass, it was tough to find any horses to recommend; especially so with only two allowance races carded and one of those coming off the turf.
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