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GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK FEBRUARY 20, 2008 by Steve Zacks Interesting Stats after Week Seven These figures come from my personal data base. Turf Racing: There have been 106 turf races run so far. Top trainers on turf: Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher lead the way with 10 wins apiece. Danny Hurtak has sent out four turf winners. Joe Orseno, Javier Negrete, Kiaran McLaughlin, Shug McGaughey and Wayne Catalano all have a trio of grass victories. Top jockeys on the turf: Eibar Coa and Kent Desormeaux have both won 13 times. John Velazquez is next with 11 and followed by Edgar Prado (10) and Jose Lezcano (eight). Three are tied with seven turf wins: Rene Douglas, Elvis Trujillo and Cornelio Velazquez. Class: The following breakdown of the class of races reflects the quality of the racing at the current meeting. There have been 140 races for maiden and conditioned claimers. This is good for the local trainer and horse colony, but it doesn't benefit horse players looking for higher-quality races. From 373 races to date: 21 stakes races Some stats about recent winners: Winners win races! Be they trainers, jockeys or the horses themselves. A recent win is an important factor to take into consideration in handicapping. After eliminating the races for maidens, 249 races for winners have been offered. Of those winners, 183 had won at least one of their previous five starts, and 59 were repeating a last-out victory. From the 59 repeaters, 24 had won at least one other race in their last five. An additional 14 others (for a total of 38) had two wins in the previous five starts. Fourteen had won three or four of their last five starts. One additional stat for the 64 conditioned claiming winners: 33 were won by a horse that had another win in their last five starts. The importance of winning early: 122 were winning in one of their first five career starts (from first to fifth start, the breakdown is as follows: 122, 14: 31, 21, 26: and 30). Many of the others with longer racing histories might well have been early winners as well. Thirty-eight of the 108 eligible were either repeating or winning for the second time in their first five starts. Forty-two of the 48 maiden special weight winners broke their maiden within their first five career starts. In maiden claimers, the number was 41 of 76 -- very meaningful but not so potent a statistic. Moving into a new barn via claim or trainer switch: Trainers normally try to claim "live" horses. So it is not surprising that many win early in the cycle for the new barn. Fifty recent claims have won within the first-five post-claim starts (17, 10, 11, 8, and 4). Thirty-two had a previous win within five recent starts. Obviously those who claim horses are clued into winners too. When an owner switches trainers either because of a change of venue or other reasons, the new trainer will try to score an early victory. Fifty-two horses won within the first five starts after the move into the new barn (18, 16, 10, 3 and 5). Twenty-six had notched another victory in one of their previous five starts. DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (2/13) The card was cancelled after only one race due to track conditions resulting from the heavy rain. Was it the Professor's daughter who sprung the long shot in the 1ST race, the man with the calabash wanted to know? DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (2/14) There was a full card of racing including one turf race, a restricted Florida-bred stakes. The first six races were for a variety of claimers from maidens to conditioned to open. The last three were for non-claiming runners. Five of the six races for winners were won by a horse with a win or more in his previous five starts. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The lone turf race was run over a course rated as good with the rails at 24 feet. The course may not have been all that bad, judging by the way they ran it, with a fast middle pace. A stalking style is usually better when the pace is slow and the winner, RUFF AND READY (More Than Ready), got the jump on the rest and proved best in his first try in stakes company. For some players, a six-year-old, even a lightly raced one, is a tough play going up against proven stakes competitors in his initial stakes try. From the Pletcher barn, he was the second choice in the betting and with his tactical position got the job done. Once again we saw winners on the dirt coming from all running positions and both on the inside and outside. With nothing exciting in the odds department, I tend to see the track as fair. Until the 7TH race when the track was rated as fast, the paces were somewhat moderate, even when pressured. The last two dirt races saw fast paces; the off-the-turf non-winners of two other than for fillies and mares was a fast race with QUALITY AFFAIR (Elusive Quality) turning in a tour-de-force performance, missing the track record by only a couple of ticks while winning rather easily. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Allen Jerkens and Pletcher won two apiece. Peter Walder added one. The latter two are now tied atop the trainer standings. Coa doubled up and widened his lead on the rest of the jockey colony. Horses or Races of Interest Any first-time starter that wins probably deserves to go on a watch list. HARLEM ROCKER (Macho Uno) got off to a rocky start but was so much the best that he was able to circle his rivals while four-wide on the turn before drawing away in the stretch. There was an honest pace to the race and he finished up well enough and was out well enough to merit respect next time out. DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (2/15) Track was fast and the turf was rated good. Of the seven races for winners, six had wins in their previous five starts. This factor or betting angle has shown up rather consistently at this meeting. The one price horse was a maiden claiming second-time starter who was dropping in class. His form was not good particularly, but he had a couple of interim works and fit well enough on pedigree in a motley crew. Honing in on live first and second-time starters is often the source of juicy mutuels; one often has to be forgiving of an excuse and be prepared to give a runner a chance to improve. A good way to build a knowledge base is to track the difference in trainer stats between first and second starts; very often you will find a wide discrepancy between the two. Two names come to mind: Jimmy Jerkens and Clifford Sise Jr. These trainers often produce much better results in their second-career starts, though they do occasionally win at first asking. You will often find valuable clues in between-race changes and work patterns between starts one and two. Good horsemen have their newcomers fit and ready to run. Sometimes the horses run well and run into other talented young runners. Other times they meet a non-descript field of proven losers and only the first timers, or one or two second-timers, make sense. The luck of the draw matters. Various clues as to intent may be trainer patterns, jockey switch from dull to sharp or to a go-to rider, an in-race excuse, or a switch of distance or surface that suits pedigree, etc. If a horse ran a solid effort he may have done too much and he may also be back too soon. Some that look very good do not show up! Be alert to the live lightly-raced runner as well as the horse that looks "too good to be true!" Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf: They were back on the turf, rated "good," with the rails at 24 feet. The two turf routes were won from the back. There was still some cut in the grass, but it did not seem too off. The dirt was listed as fast. The paces were pretty quick for the most part, and those with class finished up well thereafter. Most were in contention in the turn but winners were coming from both inside and out and were able to overcome less than perfect starts and still rally to win. I may be alone in this assessment of the race track, but the track surface has been basically a non-factor in any of my decisions. I have had some unkind words for a jockey's failure to understand the way the race was unfolding ahead, or for trying to do too much on the turn, but for the most part I have been unable to blame the track for any losses when I have located a "live" runner. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Coa was the only two-time winner amongst the jockey and trainer colonies. Several of the top riders have been absent but return for the weekend. Horses or Races of Interest LUCKY ISLAND (Arg) (Lucky Roberto) turned in a better-than-expected performance in his second North American start. He battled outside of a strong pace and managed to pull away in :23.3 final quarter. The way he finished up and galloped out suggests that there is more here. As a follow-up to a discussion of non-allowance allowance races a few weeks back, DEPUTY INDY (A.P. Indy) ran back, stepping up into a non-winners of three. He did manage a second-place finish as the odds-on pick. He was beaten by a loose front runner who would have won by more than six lengths had he not tried to visit the hot dog stand on the apron inside the sixteenth pole. I did not bet against because I could not find any of the others at a decent enough price. DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (2/16) There was one bomb, one odds-on and a number of mid-priced winners on a sunny day of racing. Once again, one of the keys to locating winners was a recent win (within five starts) as six-of-seven fit that bill. For the maidens, two were first-time starters and each of those had a six-furlong work and the other was making her fifth career start. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf was rated firm with the rails out 24 feet. Two of the three winners came from off the pace. In the Hallandale Beach S., the top two finishers raced one-two (in reverse order during the early stages) around the course, and they were probably the best in the field anyway. The dirt course was fast, but there were no particularly fast races for the day. Tactical speed was the order of the day and stretch strength was needed too. Winners came from all parts of the track. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Pletcher ran one-two in the Hallandale and increased to his meet-leading total to 16 wins. He has been "live" on several fronts this week. Only Trujillo won a couple on the day with several of the riders up north at Tampa Bay. Horses or Races of Interest COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway) has always been a tough son of a gun to handle and that did him in; while a horse of considerable talent, he is a hard horse to ride and can do you in at short odds. He is the type of horse to try to beat when bet down, especially in the serial wagers. LION LORD (Mr. Greeley) made a successful debut in spite of a troubled trip on several occasions during the running. After being bumped at the start and a four-wide trip around the turn, the four-year-old was bothered by a drifting horse at about the sixteenth pole. I am not sure just what he beat today, but the fact that he was so game and overcame such a tough trip might making him one to watch in the future. Gameness and non-perfect-trip wins are vital qualities and often mean more than high ratings in the heat of the battle. DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (2/17) Another nice day in South Florida, but unfortunately the quality of the racing for a Sunday was closer to the weather in the north where things were very wet, icy and windy. There was but one race for maidens on the card. Six of the eight races for winners were won by a recent winner. Another winner was vanned off following a victory on the turf course, the second in three days. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Track was fast and the turf was rated as firm although there was some rain during the latter part of the afternoon. The rails were again out 24 feet on the turf. Today for the first time in a long while early position on the turf course seemed to play as a negative. All four winners arrived on the scene in the stretch and arrived late. There was one longshot, possibly deserving of the odds; another at 8-1 that figured better than his price, but the low-key connections tempered the public's interest, and two at low odds. The running style almost seemed contagious from turf to dirt as early runners won only two of the five races, fewer than recently. Of note, the pacesetters were for the most part longer odds, so it may have been as much the race match-ups and elected riding styles which determined the change of trend and not the weather or the track surface itself. You will decide for yourself depending upon how you handle these issues. For me, it remains a fair track unless and until a change of style continues to win races. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Brian Lynch won two races for team Stronach to up the weekend total to three. Javier Castellano had a hat trick and Prado won two races. Eight jockeys currently have 20 or more wins. The best clues are using a "go-to" rider and when a Florida-based trainer suddenly goes for a switch to an outside rider. Horses or Races of Interest NOT FOR MONEY (Not For Love) turned in a somewhat surprisingly good performance. As the 3-1 third betting choice, he was logical. He relaxed behind a fast and honest pace for the class (:44.09) and then rambled home to win easily in 1.21.86, an excellent time for the class and much faster than expected. The lightly raced four-year-old is in good hands and could be a force to reckon with in upcoming events if he continues forward from that effort. SPRING WALTZ (Silver Charm) took no prisoners in a widening win in an open allowance race around two turns on the dirt. She may have only dusted a bunch of protected allowance mares, but she did it easily and professionally. Just how good is SUGAR SWIRL (Touch Gold)? She has been odds-on in her last three races and has not disappointed, winning all of them by open lengths, including a nine-length score today as she tried a long sprint. With an early scratch and a small field, she was the dominant runner in a weak field. She did not have to run fast late to win by many. Time might tell how she will stand up to a competitive situation with a good filly or mare -- if she ever gets to face one. At least she shows up and does her job when she is supposed to. DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (2/18) Rain led to sloppy track and races being taken off the turf on the President's Day card. Jorge Chavez managed a four bagger and all four were for Florida-based trainers. Steve DiMauro won the early double on a day when seven of the nine races were won by Florida-based runners. Considering it was a Holiday Monday, it was surprising to see a program with eight claiming races and a starter allowance. The condition book had several non-claiming races and a maiden special weight carded. I guess those races not filling, or is there another explanation? Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf With races taken off the grass, there was not much of interest or quality. I cannot say that it appeared that any were purposefully avoiding the inside, but a lot of the winners were tracking the pace in the three or four path on the turn, which is certainly not usually the best trip. Then again, one winner paid off at 5-1 and another at 7-1 so for the most part the winners were logical and there were no illogical or surprise winners on the card. Trainers and Jockeys of Note As of Monday, Coa leads the jockey standings with 48 wins, followed by Velazquez with 34, Desormeaux at 29, and Lezcano and Trujillo with 26 apiece. Chavez is now at 24, Prado at 23 and Cornelio Velasquez at 21. The top octet has ridden the winners of 230+ of the meet's 370+ races to date. The top trainers list is made up of the following names: Pletcher (16), Walder and Mott (14 apiece) and Nick Zito and Kenny McPeek (11 each). The next quintet consists of Catalano (11), Orseno (9), David Fawkes (8) and Hurtak and Kirk Ziadie (7 apiece).
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