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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 18, 2008 by Dick Powell Last year's running of the Blue Grass S. (G1) was derided by many as a phony race with a slow pace engineered by riders uncertain how to handle Keeneland's Polytrack. The upset winner, DOMINICAN (El Corredor), earned only a 98 BRIS Speed rating. Last Saturday's edition of the Blue Grass saw a much faster pace with pace-prompter MONBA (Maria's Mon) running down pacesetter Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway) and winning by a neck. Despite running nearly two seconds faster than Dominican, Monba only earned a 97 BRIS Speed rating. If you ask me, last year's Blue Grass was a lot easier to explain than what we saw Saturday. Last year, Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) champion STREET SENSE was out-kicked in the four-horse dash to the wire and fell a nose short. He came back to romp in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and probably benefited from the Blue Grass' slow-early, fast-late pace scenario. So how do you explain Pyro's (Pulpit) 10th-place finish on Saturday? The even-money favorite broke a bit slow from post seven in the 12-horse field and was wide every step of the way. The explosive stretch kick that he showed in his two previous starts at the Fair Grounds this year was nowhere to be found as he was beaten 11 1/2 lengths. After the race, there didn't appear to be any physical problems with Pyro and it looks like a case of him not liking Polytrack. If you factor in his ground loss, you could cut his beaten margin in half, but it still doesn't excuse this clunker. The only positive I can get out of the race for Pyro is that it was a more strenuous effort than it looked at first glance. My fear was his 10th-place finish looked like the type of prep race that he gets very little out of, but he was grinding away out in the middle of the track and it may actually move him forward physically. One contradictory word of caution: Even though the chart of the race correctly indicates that Pyro was four wide on the first turn and five or six wide on the second, the trip he had was 25 feet less than Monba's according to Trakus, Keeneland's electronic race information system. Lately, the riders have been racing far off the Keeneland rail so front runners are not necessarily saving as much ground as you think. Horses behind them might appear to be four across the track but could actually be racing closer to the rail than the leader. Monba was six wide on the first turn, which explains why he raced farther than Pyro, but even early leader Cowboy Cal ran seven feet farther than Pyro. At Keeneland, it pays to watch the head-on replays of all the races to see where the horses are in relation to the rail. So where do we go from here? First of all, Monba is a nice horse who delivered a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning for Todd Pletcher. He rallied furiously to be beaten 2 1/4 lengths in the Cash Call Futurity (G1), which was his two-turn debut. Then, as the lukewarm 38-10 favorite in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2), he had a nightmare trip and was beaten nearly 40 lengths. With time running out and one, last chance to earn enough graded stakes money to even start in the Derby, Monba came through with a smashing Grade 1 stakes win. Pletcher has been real quiet lately with his sophomores but suddenly he has two strong candidates. Cowboy Cal showed high cruising speed and held on gamely for second. Yes, he hasn't had much success of dirt tracks, but Giant's Causeway foals get better with maturity and he looks like the kind of colt that suddenly improves in the spring. A few days after the Bluegrass, Edgar Prado, rider of Monba, announced that he will ride ADRIANO (A.P. Indy) in the Derby. Winner of the Lane's End S. (G2) last out at Turfway, Prado was aboard him in a workout Sunday morning at Churchill and is satisfied that he can handle the dirt. In place of Prado aboard Monba will be Ramon Dominguez, who would seem to be a perfect fit for him. Dominguez is excellent at getting his horses into stride but relaxing along the way. Despite all the rumors, agent Ron Anderson stated that his rider, Garrett Gomez, will stay aboard COURT VISION (Gulch) and not switch to Pyro, as many were speculating. Speaking of riders, the slump of Johnny Velazquez appears to be over. When Pletcher went into a slump in New York last summer and Velazquez was not winning at his usual rate, he lost some outfits that he had been riding for. But Velazquez had a strong Gulfstream meeting and is winning at his customary 22 percent. What's different is that his ROI is a very strong -0.09. In 2007, he won 18 percent but his ROI was -0.60. The difference now is that when you bet Johnny you are getting better prices. What's amazing about Velazquez's resurgence is that it is coming from winning aboard horses not trained by Pletcher. For Pletcher, Velazquez has won 23 of 137 mounts -- 17 percent with a ROI of -0.62. For everyone else, Velazquez has won 58 of 235 mounts -- 25 percent with a ROI of +0.21. Pletcher is still winning at 22 percent this year but he's spreading his business among more riders than ever before. With Dominguez accepting the mount on Monba, it might be an indication that Larry Jones is not going to run EIGHT BELLES (Unbridled's Song) in the Derby instead of the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Winner of the Fantasy S. (G2) last out while earning a very strong BRIS Speed rating of 103, she had Dominguez aboard in her last two starts. Either Dominguez and his agent, Steve Rushing, feel that Monba is better than Eight Belles or they have doubts that she'll go in the Derby and were afraid that they would be left without a mount. While Steve Asmussen was trying to figure out what happened to Pyro in the Bluegrass, Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]) stepped up big time for him with a tremendous second in the Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn Park. He finished full of run despite a wide trip from post 11 to miss by less than a length to GAYEGO (Gilded Time), who used his superior pace advantage to win for Paulo Lobo and Mike Smith. Considering the ground loss, it was a terrific performance by Z Fortune. Gayego looked good in his dirt debut but he has a dosage index of 4.33 and a female family heavily tilted toward speed.
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