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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 27, 2008 by Dick Powell By the time you read this, there will be less than three weeks until the opening of Del Mar and four weeks until Saratoga. Racing's premier boutique meets will soon be upon us and now is the time to get ready. For me, it's all about context. I will watch and re-watch every replay from Belmont and Churchill Downs to get ready for Saratoga and Hollywood Park for Del Mar. But before watching, I'll download each day's charts to have in front of me. Then, as I watch the replays, I'll note on the chart various factors that I will need to know the next time these horses run back. I'll then read the chart of each race and watch the replay to see if that uncovers some hidden angle that I missed the first time. With all the tools available on the Internet, you don't have to have piles of VHS tapes any more. And if you download the latest version of Real Player, you will find that you can now save streaming video as it is playing. Once the race is captured, go back into Real Player and rename the file by clicking on "edit clip info" button on the left side of the screen. If you don't have a high-speed Internet connection or don't want to watch horse racing in a tiny window on your computer, I would invest in the TIVO recording system and a DVR with plenty of capacity. I have DirecTV and am able to record more than 200 hours of programming. I set the TIVO to record the NYRA replay show on Fox Sports at 9:30 a.m. (EDT) each morning and it works like a charm -- just set it and forget it. Replays from Southern California are harder for me to find so I'll use the Internet for them. At the beginning of each meet, BRIS' Ultimate Past Performances will give you meet-specific information for the entire meet last year. Pay attention to last year's global track bias stats for each course and distance. It will give you something to compare this year's races to. Keep in mind that Saratoga had unusually dry weather last year with very few wet, main tracks. BRIS has last year's charts in an archive and they are worth purchasing. Better yet would be if you have last year's past performances so that you can look up how trainers brought their horses up to winning efforts. The best thing about Saratoga and Del Mar is how many owners and trainers point their horses for their best efforts there and the patterns of how they do it are often repeated. Explore www.nyra.com and www.dmtc.com for historical information on meet leaders. Pay particular attention to trainers that are coming off uncharacteristically poor seasons last year. Chances are they will bounce back. Because of the time of year, juvenile racing will be critical to your success at Saratoga and Del Mar. Up to 25 percent of the races will be for the two-year-olds, and I don't know how you can succeed without BRIS' Ultimate Past Performances. Where else are you going to get detailed trainer information for first-time starters, second-time starters, debut maiden special weight and debut maiden claimers? Not only do they provide sales details but information about the sire, the dam and the dam's produce record is conveniently located within the past performance of each horse. With many first-time starters and with very few starts for those that have run, examining nature and nurture is critical. Detailed pedigree information will help you with the nature part and trainer stats will help you make better decisions on which first-time starters are meant to win and which ones might need a race. Branch Rickey once said, "Luck is the residue of design." Thomas Jefferson said, "I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have." Mark Twain said, "Get the facts first. You can distort them later." And, finally, Nietzsche said, "There are no facts, only interpretations." I say do the work since it will provide a greater context to accurately place the many factors of handicapping into. The process of doing the work is important to me since it sharpens my mental skills. If I had someone else compile the work, I would have the same information available but it would not be burned into my brain. Hard work does not change luck but it should reduce the amount of mistakes you make in the handicapping process.
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