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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 10, 2008 by Dick Powell Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) was run in windy, cold and rainy conditions under dark skies at Longchamp. It was probably between the cold of Belmont Park for the Breeders' Cup in 2005 and Churchill Downs' in 2006 on the uncomfortable scale. There was no sign of the sun and it had rained overnight and more was forecast. Sixteen horses were scheduled to take part in this year's Arc as the course had softened up considerably during the week and more soft-turf specialists were willing to take a chance in the world's richest turf race. Longchamp had a small bit of rain Saturday night and at 10:30 Sunday morning trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre announced that if it was too soft ZARKAVA (Zamindar) would not run. Luckily de Royer-Dupre did not realize at the time that Longchamp did not have the overnight downpour that his training yard in Chantilly had so there really was no doubt about the undefeated filly superstar's participation. When the first race got underway at 1:45 p.m. Paris time, there was a strong wind blowing from right to left meaning that horses in the homestretch would have it at their back. In examining those that came out of these races for the Breeders' Cup, keep in mind that the farcical Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (Fr-G1) was run with the strong wind at their back. MARCHAND D'OR's (Marchand de Sable) sensational time of :54.40 for almost five furlongs was strongly wind-aided, as was NAAQOOS (Oasis Dream [GB]) win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Fr-G1) going seven furlongs. The rest of the card's races were run into a strong headwind before making the turn back to the finish line. Thus, we had very fast times in the sprints and much slower times at a mile and beyond. The ground was officially listed as "good to soft" and rated at 3.3 -- almost identical to last year's course which Dylan Thomas (Ire) won over. So all in all, it would be a fair Arc with no horse having a significant advantage. In the parade ring before the race (in most countries, the horses are saddled in a holding area where they are stabled for the day's races before coming to the parade ring where they are walked already saddled), Zarkava looked quite composed when rider Christophe Soumillon got aboard. Soumillon was constantly jabbering to people in the ring and he was far more high-strung than the filly. When the horses came out on the track, Duke of Marmalade (Danehill) broke off for Johnny Murtagh for his warm-up and the ground broke out from under him causing a giant of divot of turf to break away. Not what you want to see with your five-straight, Group 1-winning stakes horse. The Arc does not have a long warm-up and on a cold day, the riders had their horses in full gallop around the turn to make sure all the parts were well-oiled. The field of 16 approached the starting gate and Zarkava was beginning to break out. It was hard to tell if it was from her usual pre-race antics or from the fast, strenuous warm-up that Soumillon gave her. At the start, Zarkava broke towards the rail from post 1 but Soumillon quickly got her straightened out and got her to settle while down on the inside in traffic. As expected, Red Rock Canyon (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) went to the front to ensure a fast pace for stablemates Duke of Marmalade and Soldier of Fortune (Galileo [Ire]). No one went with him and there was a wide gap back to the second horse, Schiaparelli (Monsun), who was enjoying a clean trip with Frankie Dettori. Stalking him was Soldier of Fortune who appeared a bit keen and closer to the pace than expected. Zarkava, very visible in the dark lighting with her white shadow roll and the historic green silks of the Aga Khan, was racing comfortably about five horses from last. With the relatively slow pace, the field was in tight quarters and many riders said after the race that it was extremely rough going with lots of bumping. If you saw Zarkava's win in last year's Prix Marcel Boussac (Fr-G1) you know that she can run in behind horses and accelerate through any opening. As the field was about four furlongs out in what is called the false stretch, Soumillon looked like he might go to the outside for a wide, clear rally like he did in the Prix Vermeille(Fr-G1). But when the horse to his outside maintained his pace, Soumillon went back to the inside to wait for an opening. Red Rock Canyon tired in the stretch and longshot It's Gino (Perugino) and Soldier of Fortune struck the front. Schiaparelli and Zambezi Sun (Dansili [GB]) were tiring and Zarkava was crying out for room. With It's Gino and Soldier of Fortune in front of her and Vision d'Etat (Chichicastenango) keeping her hemmed in, it looked like she would be in a box to the wire but Soumillon pulled the left rein and she moved left for clear sailing. It was at this point on this dark day that Paris became the City of Lights. Zarkava exploded to the lead and pulled away from this stellar field on ground she probably did not relish. When Soumillon asked her for run, she bellied down like an all-time great and broke the Arc wide open. Never touched by Soumillon's whip, Zarkava romped to a two-length victory over Youmzain (Sinndar) with It's Gino and Soldier of Fortune apparently dead-heating for third. After the race, Soumillon was irrationally exuberant. After being interviewed aboard Zarkava on the far turn, he brought her over to the rail to give her fans a close look. The crowd's response was overwhelming and he took off his helmet and threw it into the adoring crowd. When he was met by Zarkava's handlers in the gap that leads back to the parade ring, Soumillon was overcome with emotion. One second he was screaming wildly, the next he was crying his eyes out. On the way back to the winner's circle in the parade ring, a huge throng of people surrounded Zarkava and lucky for them she was quite tired from her effort, or there would have been ambulances needed to cart off the wounded. Zarkava was led back to the unsaddling point where Soumillon made a flying dismount that not only would have made Angel Cordero Jr. and Frankie Dettori proud, but Julius Erving as well. Now reality sets in. How do you top this and do you risk Zarkava to a racing season next year? One point that I think many are missing is that even though the Aga Khan is not a commercial breeder, and does not sell his horses and races what he breeds, Zarkava will have one less foal in a short broodmare career if she races next year. The difference between her having nine foals or 10 might not sound like much, but they will be precious commodities to the Aga Khan -- especially the fillies which will serve as future broodmares for his program. There is already much talk about what a shame it will be if she does not run next year. Here's my advice: stop worrying about next year with horses and show up to watch them now. 2007 Horse of the Year CURLIN (Smart Strike) has raced before three disappointing crowds in New York already this year despite everyone's longing for big name horses to continue their racing careers. Where were all the fans? If you are a BIG BROWN (Boundary) or ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) fan, don't miss the opportunity to see them race now. It's not like it's a surprise when these great horses are retired. If half the people that complain about horses retiring too soon actually went to the track to see the horses that did not retire too soon, we would have a pretty healthy sport.
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