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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 15, 2009 by Dick Powell The Preakness S. (G1) will be run for the 134th time at Pimlico on Saturday and unlike recent years, this year's renewal is a very intriguing one. When a 50-1 longshot like MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) wins the Kentucky Derby (G1), it gives more of the also-rans confidence to take him on in the Preakness. A field of 13 will line up to go 1 3/16 miles in the second jewel of the Triple Crown with seven runners back from the Derby, five new male shooters and the sensational filly RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) added to the mix. The Derby was contested on a quirky, sealed wet track, and the connections of many Preakness runners hope that the result was a fluke and are willing to give it another try. Jess Jackson not only bought Rachel Alexandra off her spectacular 20 1/4-length win in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but decided to enter her against the boys on Saturday. So instead of having a race with the Derby winner and a few new shooters, this year's Preakness is one of the best in years. Of the new shooters, Rachel Alexandra and BIG DRAMA (Montbrook) look to be the best. Rachel has won her last five starts -- all by wide margins -- and fits with these based on any quantitative or qualitative analysis. She drew post 13 which will enable Calvin Borel to stalk any inside speed while clear on the outside. She gets five pounds from the field and adds considerable spice to this year's race. Ordinarily, I wouldn't be too excited about betting a filly taking on males for the first time with only two weeks since her last race. But the question you have to ask yourself is was the Kentucky Oaks a race or a public workout? Against a very weak group of sophomore fillies, she stalked a moderate pace and then exploded to the runaway win. In the Oaks, Rachel Alexandra earned a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 111 which puts her at the top of this class. Originally scheduled to make her next start on the undercard of the Belmont S. (G1) in the Acorn (G1) going a mile against her own sex, she was bought by Jackson and switched from trainer Hal Wiggins to Steve Asmussen. Jackson retained Borel, who had to choose between her and Mine that Bird, and entered her in the Preakness. Luckily for the filly, the sale went down very quickly so that changing her schedule was no big deal. Asmussen proved two years ago with Curlin that he can take over a horse from another top horseman and do well, and Borel fits her perfectly. Big Drama has been handled perfectly by trainer David Fawkes. He swept the lucrative Florida Stallion Series last year at Calder and skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He came back in December to win the Delta Jackpot (G3) at Delta Downs to finish the year with more than $860K in earnings. This year in his lone start, the Florida-bred colt finished first in the Swale S. (G2) at Gulfstream going seven furlongs in a fast time only to be disqualified and placed second. My guess is that Fawkes thought that the Preakness would be the perfect spot, but he could never have anticipated how strong the field would be. Big Drama drew the rail and gets Johnny Velazquez as his rider. MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) ran a terrific race in the Derby and is back in the Preakness from post 3. He was wide most of the way and raced on the worst part of the racetrack before being bumped around in the deep stretch. Eibar Coa gets off Big Drama to stay with Musket Man, who might get a favorable pace scenario to set up his late kick. PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) had a dream trip in the Derby while saving ground for the first mile. He was involved in the bumping with a furlong to go and with rain in the forecast for Saturday, he certainly has the right pedigree. PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) looked a winner turning for home in the Derby despite racing too close to the pace and on the worst part of the track. When Mine That Bird went flying by at the eighth pole, he raced erratically through the stretch and held second by a nose. Pioneerof the Nile had another brilliant workout at Churchill on Monday and is the one to beat on Saturday. Finally, the horse that scares me the most is FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy), the beaten favorite in the Derby. After being bumped around at the start and racing in traffic early, rider Gabriel Saez wrapped up on him and eased him to a 18th-place finish, 42 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Immediately after the race, trainer Larry Jones talked about Friesan Fire coming back with a hoof injury and cuts and bruises on his ankles, but his outlook quickly changed and the colt worked five furlongs in :58 2/5 on Tuesday at Pimlico. With a better start, Friesan Fire has enough tactical speed to stay out of trouble and if he's as sound as he looked in his workout, he could still be improving in his second start off a seven-week layoff. My hands are tied on this one and I have to go with Pioneerof the Nile again. He ran a great race in the Derby and nothing indicates that he can't run the same race again. With Rachel Alexandra in the race, he will probably go off at least 7-2 which is fine. For me, the value will be to bet Pioneerof the Nile to win and then exactas with him on top of Musket Man and Friesan Fire and those two on top of him for an equal amount.
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