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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 5, 2009 by Dick Powell With Preakness S. (G1) heroine Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) taking a well-deserved rest and many other sophomores searching for the road less traveled, this year's Belmont S. (G1) is for the birds. The question is: which bird? Kentucky Derby (G1) winner MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) should be going for the Triple Crown on Saturday at Belmont Park except for some extraordinary circumstances. He won the Derby at odds of 50-1 due to a memorable ride by Calvin Borel. After the Derby, Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable privately purchased Rachel Alexandra, who had just won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) by 20 1/4 lengths. Her previous owners had no interest in competing against males and did not nominate her for the Triple Crown. Their plan was to wait for the Acorn S. (G1) at a mile on the Belmont S. undercard. Jackson completed the purchase of Rachel quick enough to change direction and immediately paid the $100,000 supplement to make her eligible for the rest of the Triple Crown. Borel stated his belief that Rachel was the best horse he has ever ridden -- better than his Mine That Bird and his other Derby winner, Street Sense -- and announced that he would ride her in the Preakness. So Mine That Bird went to the Preakness without his Derby-winning rider. Luckily, Mike Smith was available and Smith gave him a good ride to finish second to Rachel Alexandra, who made history for her new connections and regular rider. With Rachel Alexandra taking the third leg of the Triple Crown off, Mine That Bird goes into this year's Belmont against a depleted field with Borel back aboard. Theoretically, it should be enough. But at short odds, it's not enough for me. Defining pari-mutuel value is one of the great existential questions in horse racing. We saw some unusual examples already this year. When Rachel Alexandra beat a bad group of sophomore fillies in the Kentucky Oaks at odds of 3-10, I thought she was an overlay. Against that motley group, she should have been 1-20 so the difference of the expected odds of .05 and the actual odds of .30 is significant enough to classify her as an overlay. At the other end of the spectrum, Mine That Bird winning the Derby at odds of 50-1 was an underlay for me since based on his seasonal form in New Mexico, he should have been at least 75-1. For me, the determination of value is how big the gap between the expected odds and actual odds weighed against the actual risk. Rachel's 3-10 odds in the Oaks begin to look more generous when you weigh their return against the tiny risk of making a large, win bet on her or singling her in multiple wagers. Mine That Bird's 50-1 odds in the Derby was way too low since the risk he was facing against 18 rivals was far too much; even for a $100 payoff. The risk on Saturday is even with Calvin back and a pedigree that screams 12 furlongs, he's making his third start in five weeks and the magic carpet ride has to stop somewhere as his odds decrease with each race. Peter Pan (G2) winner CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) is undefeated on dirt and his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, is talking very confidently about his runner's chances. He'll take a lot of money and might make Mine That Bird's odds more attractive. But, not enough to get me to bite. I thought SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) had a shot to run well in the Derby. It was only his fourth career start and from post 16 on a track that favored inside paths, he rallied seven wide to get sixth. Yes, he was beaten 13 lengths, but some of that was due to Borel saving every inch of ground and Cliff Rosier not having any choice but to race wide. On Saturday, Summer Bird returns with new rider Kent Desormeaux in the irons for the first time. Trainer Tim Ice wisely skipped the Preakness and shows up at Belmont with a fresh horse that still might be improving. Not only does he share the same sire as Mine That Bird but his broodmare sire, Summer Squall (Storm Bird), is a very underrated source of stamina in pedigrees today. I know the preferred running profile for the Belmont is a horse with good cruising speed, but I think his stretch run will be enough to pull off the upset. I'll use both "Birds" in my exactas and will make a win wager on Summer Bird. One horse that scares me is MINER'S ESCAPE (Mineshaft), who has gotten hot for Nick Zito. He's changed his running style so that he now runs up near the pace and he could have it all to himself on Saturday if Jose Lezcano sends him from the gate. He certainly has a ton of pedigree to get 12 furlongs and Zito has been the master of the Belmont upset. I'll include him in a trifecta box with my top two selections and will leave Charitable Man out of the equation.
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