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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 9, 2010 by Dick Powell I've never been to Hot Springs, Arkansas, but I'll be able to cross that destination off my list of places to see when I attend Friday's Apple Blossom (G1) and Saturday's Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. Like Saratoga in August, Hot Springs in April is marked by large, knowledgeable crowds that can't get enough of the Racing Festival of the South as the Oaklawn meet builds to its final main event -- the now Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby. But first, we have some business to attend to on Friday as ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) returns to scene of one of her most impressive wins two seasons ago in the Apple Blossom. Unfortunately, RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) is not here and only four local fillies/mares could be rounded up to try to prevent Zenyatta from joining Hallowed Dreams by winning her first 16 career races. Even without much competition, it is worth it for me to travel halfway across the country to see Zenyatta. She's great to watch on television but in person you get to see the full effect of her pre-race antics. She'll come into the paddock leaning hard on her groom, who does everything he can to keep her head raised. Seemingly distracted by her tongue tie, she tries to lift her left knee up high enough while lowering her head to try to dislodge it. Zenyatta will goose step around the walking ring and then head out to the track. After showing in the post parade, she does not warm up at all but prefers to do some weird prance with her hind legs far apart. She'll stop to watch her foes warm up and then Mike Smith will walk her to the gate. She'll balk some at the gate but will finally load and then break behind the field when the latches are sprung. Smith will keep her behind the field in the run down the backstretch until the far turn when he'll let her go. With unbelievable acceleration and athletic ability, Zenyatta will catch her rivals in a minimum amount of strides and go right on by. Once she takes the lead, the race is over since her stride is so huge and heart is so big. It sounds predictable and it is. I doubt if she'll have more than two or three prep races after this for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) so you have to take full advantage of any opportunity to see one of the sport's greatest female runners and I can't wait. On Saturday, the Arkansas Derby drew a field of nine. As usual, Todd Pletcher is well represented in here with SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon). Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill last November in his two-turn debut, he was on top of many Derby lists going into this year. In the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), he gunned to the front and battled for the lead throughout before going down to a half-length defeat as the 3-2 favorite. With ESKENDEREYA (Giant's Causeway) forging to the front of the Pletcher brigade off his two big wins at Gulfstream this spring, Super Saver has been off the radar until Saturday, when he makes only his second start of the year. Yes, he'll have to relax early and not be as keyed up as he was last time out, and there is a ton of pace in here, but it looks to me as if he's sitting on a big race and could turn out to be Pletcher's best Derby hope. I say that because as strong as Eskendereya looked last Saturday when romping in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, I still can't get beyond the front-leg bandages that he wore for the first time. Pletcher indicated after the race that they were purely preventative; that because Aqueduct's sandy surface can cause some horses to burn their heels, he wasn't taking any chances four weeks away from the Derby and had all his horses wear them on Saturday. I'll buy that at face value but racing has a history of trainers saying something when the reality is completely different. Think: Conquistador Cielo in the 1982 Travers S. (G1). Based on how he ran Saturday, Eskendereya could probably win the Derby without taking his shipping bandages off. Johnny Velazquez was able to get him in behind horses on the clubhouse turn and relax down the backstretch -- all things he will have to do on the first Saturday in May. When asked for run at the top of the stretch, Eskendereya exploded to win by any margin he wanted. Now comes the questions: First, did he get enough out of the race with an easy finish? I know Velazquez was able to conserve energy down the lane but often that is illusionary. Do you go to the Derby off an easy race or a hard race? Considering how little these horses race, I would vote for a hard race and Eskendereya did not get one on Saturday. The next question is: who did he beat? I liked Awesome Act's (Awesome Again) race in the Gotham S. (G3) and didn't think he ran bad on Saturday so I would have to think that the field that Eskendereya beat was pretty good. Julien Leparoux had Awesome Act racing in behind horses for most of the nine furlongs of the Wood and, even though he ran one-paced through the lane, it was still a good effort on his part and should set him up for an improved try at the Derby. DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) is in a similar spot in Arkansas. I liked his race in the Southwest S. (G3) but didn't like his race in the Rebel S. (G2) when former rider Corey Nakatani moved too early down the backstretch and seemed more worried about Garrett Gomez on LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) than his own horse. The challenge for trainer D. Wayne Lukas is that Dublin looks like he could be sitting on a big race, but is that what you want three weeks before the Derby? Yes, there are a million reasons to have him cranked up for Saturday's Arkansas Derby and Lukas' history has been to live in the moment. But it makes you wonder what kind of race he'll run with Terry Thompson returning to the saddle. ***** At Keeneland, the Blue Grass S. (G1) will be run at nine furlongs over the Polytrack and it has attracted a fascinating group of nine dirt, turf and synthetic track performers. I've always like INTERACTIF (Broken Vow) and his second to Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) in the San Felipe S. (G2) last out looks pretty good now. He's a versatile colt who should handle the Polytrack without any problems and he could be tough in the Blue Grass if Rafael Bejarano can work out any kind of trip from post 9.
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