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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 2, 2010 by Dick Powell When Godolphin Stable's DESERT PARTY (Street Cry [Ire]) is good, he's very good and we saw why last Saturday at Philadelphia Park. Off his last race, a dreadful 11th-place performance in the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2) at Meydan in Dubai, he showed up in the $200,000 Donald Levine Memorial H. going seven furlongs on the main track. Despite being sired by Street Cry (Ire) (Machiavellian) out of a Tabasco Cat (Storm Cat) mare, he has never shown the ability to get a distance of ground that his pedigree suggests. His longest win was the U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G2) at Nad al Sheba going a mile when he beat subsequent Super Derby (G2) winner Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) by almost five lengths. This year, he was an impressive winner of a six-furlong stakes at Meydan then failed in the Godolphin Mile so it was anyone's guess which Desert Party would show up on Saturday. Facing Desert Party were two Grade 3-winning sprinters and Desert Party went off as the 21-10 second choice in the wagering. I can't remember the last time that a seven furlong sprint with three graded stakes winners in the field saw a slower early pace. It seemed like all the riders did not want to take the lead and the first quarter was run in :23.53. Because of the slow pace, the six entrants raced in close quarters and Desert Party wound up between horses in traffic for most of the trip. David Cohen had to tap on the brakes a few times around the far turn but finally had daylight at the top of the stretch. Desert Party surged to the front and won going away by 3 1/2 lengths in the good time of 1:22.04. Considering how slow the early pace was, it was a terrific performance and Desert Party earned a BRIS Speed rating of 102. It will be interesting to see if Godolphin resists the urge to stretch Desert Party out to two-turn races or keep him sprinting. I think the Forego H. (G1) on September 4 would be a logical target, a race they won last year with Pyro. Delaware Park had an interesting race on Tuesday. In the 9TH, an optional claimer for non-winners of two other than or $40,000 price tag going 1 1/16 miles on the main track, two highly-rated sophomore colts showed up. Miner's Reserve (Mineshaft) looked great earlier this year for Nick Zito when he broke his maiden going a mile in fast time. He bombed in his next two starts when moved up into graded stakes company but came back at Belmont last out to win a first-level allowance in very fast time, earning a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 105. You would think that Zito would go back into stakes company, but there he was at Delaware Park on a Tuesday. Unfortunately for Miner's Reserve, Tony Dutrow decided to enter A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever). Winner of the Spectacular Bid S. at the start of the year and a sensational second behind D' Funnybone (D'wildcat) in the Hutcheson S. (G2), he then nearly stole the Louisiana Derby (G2) when he led all the way to the deep stretch where he was run down by MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Unbridled's Song) while holding off future Belmont S. (G1) winner Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor). A Little Warm missed the Triple Crown this year with a series of ailments and here was Johnny Velazquez giving up an off day and going to Delaware to ride him in an allowance race. With Miner's Reserve carrying three more pounds than A Little Warm, Jeremy Rose tried to take advantage of his pace advantage and gunned him to the front. Velazquez had A Little Warm in hot pursuit. After a first quarter in a reasonable :23.80, Miner’s Reserve threw in a :22.85 second quarter that was way too fast. Instead of slowing the pace down, it got hotter and he paid for it at the end. With Velazquez applying constant pressure on the outside, A Little Warm eventually wore Miner's Reserve down in the final furlong to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths. His final time was a good 1:43.60 and now the sophomore male division has two interesting colts that should make their presence known the rest of the year. Warm weather has helped NYRA run more turf races than I can ever remember and it pays to keep track of which riders are doing well over it. Earlier this year, Edgar Prado and Johnny Velazquez were under 10 percent when riding the grass but both have turned things around. Prado is now winning with 14 percent of his turf mounts and Velazquez is now winning at 15 percent. These are major turnarounds for both of these veteran riders who have always done well on the turf. Kent Desormeaux had been winning at a 23 percent clip on the turf, but he is down to 16 percent now; a solid win rate but not for him. Rajiv Maragh was winning 17 percent on the turf and is now down to 11 percent, with a big, flat-bet deficit. Ramon Dominguez is Mr. Consistency on the turf -- actually, all surfaces -- has he continues to win at 22 percent. But doing even better has been Javier Castellano, who is now winning an amazing 23 percent rate on the turf and showing a strong flat-bet profit. Cornelio Velasquez has been winning 16 percent of his turf starts but because he attracts little wagering attention, he shows a flat-bet profit of +0.52. Jose Lezcano continues to ride the grass courses well, showing a small flat-bet profit while winning at 17 percent. With Saratoga coming up fast and, weather permitting, an extraordinary number of turf races carded on its two turf courses, it pays to know which riders are riding the lawn well.
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