|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER 2, 2011 by Dick Powell Last weekend was one of the best all year in horse racing with major races run at Saratoga and at Del Mar. But nobody, and I mean nobody, shone brighter than Bob Baffert's THE FACTOR (War Front) when he won the Pat O'Brien S. (G1) at Del Mar. Coming off a 134-day layoff and taking on older rivals for the first time, the speedball that won the fastest juvenile maiden going six furlongs of all time skipped going to Saratoga for the King's Bishop (G1) and stayed home to take on the leading sprinter in America, Smiling Tiger (Hold That Tiger), winner of three Grade 1 sprint stakes the past two years. The Factor is not only brilliantly fast but was able to carry his speed two turns this year when he won the Rebel S. (G2) by 6 1/4 lengths at Oaklawn Park going 1 1/16 miles. Left in his wake that day were none other than CALEB'S POSSE (Posse), who came east to win the Amsterdam S. (G2) and King's Bishop over last year's juvenile champion, UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie), and ARCHARCHARCH (Arch), who won the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his next start. Baffert, know as "Bullet Bob" for how fast he works his horses in the morning, was taking no chances with The Factor coming back in such a tough spot and put the screws to him with a pair of 1:10 and change, six-furlong workouts. Del Mar plays faster in the morning when the track has not yet heated up due to the afternoon sun so Baffert was not going to be fooled into thinking he had a fit horse from the fast clockings in the morning. He put in the second six-furlong work from the gate the Saturday before and he was assured of having a horse fit enough for the task. When the gate opened for the Pat O'Brien, Smiling Tiger was on his toes and broke on top from post 5 with Joel Rosario. Martin Garcia had The Factor away well and he wound up stalking Smiling Tiger while less than a half-length behind. It was a weird position to be in since it looked like Rosario could ask his mount for more speed and come over to the rail when he wanted and tighten things up for The Factor. However, Garcia had so much horse underneath him that he could loosen the reins an inch and keep his position on the inside. You would much rather stalk while clear on the outside than down next to the rail but it didn't really matter. After a first quarter in :22.41, they upped the ante in the next quarter that was run in an amazing :21.87. The Factor was not only able to maintain his inside position but he gradually inched his way to the lead around the far turn. Smiling Tiger responded with a move of his own and looked like he might have had the lead just as they began to straighten away. But watching Garcia around the turn showed he still had a long hold on The Factor and he asked the question in the homestretch when he shook the reins and applied the whip. The Factor broke the race open as Smiling Tiger paid for his early efforts on the front and began to back up. The Factor had a clear lead with a furlong remaining as he covered six furlongs in 1:08.60 and he cruised to a 1 3/4-length victory over Camp Victory (Forest Camp), who rallied for second. The Factor's final time of 1:21.56 was the fastest seven-furlong race of the meet and he did it with authority. Four months off meant nothing to the awesome talent of The Factor and Baffert's training acumen. One thing about Bob -- he does a lot of complaining but even though there's a hint of gamesmanship in it, he knows what he's talking about and he made sure he showed up on Sunday with a fit horse for a big task. In a crop of sophomores that have trouble putting good races together, The Factor now has two Grade 2s and a Grade 1 stakes win to his credit this year and needs to be included in any championship conversation. I saw no evidence that Uncle Mo had regained any of his championship form from last year and thought he was ripe for the taking in Saturday's King's Bishop at Saratoga. Even before he had his liver disease that sent him to the sidelines, he ran twice this year without showing any development from last year. In fact, he went backward. That said, he ran a terrific race in the King's Bishop but let's not get too carried away. I thought he got a perfect trip, sitting behind three horses that were knocking heads on the lead, took over in the stretch, ducked to the inside and was nailed in the last jump by Caleb's Posse. It was a good effort and when it was learned after the race that he threw a show during the race, it was the first evidence that he was the same horse that he was last year. That said, he is still going to have to show more to live up to the hype after the race. It even continued after the Travers S. (G1) when his oft-ignored stablemate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini) put together his third big race in a row when he was a handy winner of the "Midsummer Derby." After a second in the Belmont S. (G1) run over a sloppy track, Stay Thirsty won the Jim Dandy (G2) at the Spa in a key decision as it gave him a race over the track, which has been a big handicapping angle at this year's meet. Stay Thirsty used his tactical speed to get away from the gate without incident, allowed Preakness (G1) winner Shackleford (Forestry) to clear on the outside, swing to the outside in the run down the backside, take over on the far turn and then use his superior dirt pedigree to prevail. Last year, it was going to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) without a prep race. This year, it was shipping back to the heat of south Florida where he bombed in the Florida Derby (G1). Now, I hope owner Mike Repole shows this colt the respect he deserves and puts him on the pedestal of the barn's best three-year-old. Right now, the best three-year-olds in training are Stay Thirsty and The Factor. I was talking to a prominent trainer Thursday morning at Saratoga and he was making some interesting observations about the main track here. He commented on how horses that have their first race over the track come out exhausted by the effort and many trainers have been fooled into thinking they have a horse that's fit and ready then see them stagger through the lane. We talked about the race-over-the-track angle and he made the point that the horses that have raced here on the main track will be ready to move forward in their next start down the road. It was interesting to see a trainer actually think like a handicapper and while I might be a victim of "confirmation bias," I couldn't agree more.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
