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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 15, 2015

by Dick Powell

Watching this year's Kentucky Derby (G1) provides a treasure trove of excuses for many of the entrants. If you recorded the race in high-definition, you can go back, over and over, to see how an individual was able to navigate the unique circumstances that the Derby throws at them.

What I like to do is identify the horse I want to focus on when they hit the wire and then, go backwards to the start to create my own "isolation" camera shot. It's not always easy to do since NBC changes camera angle so many times but that is more than made up for by multiple angles in their replays and the clarity of their high-definition broadcast.

Some bad trips are obvious. DANZIG MOON (Malibu Moon) had to struggle in the first quarter-mile to just stay on his feet and not clip heels. MR. Z (Malibu Moon) was bounced all over the place. TENCENDUR (Warrior's Reward) had to keep from racing up on horses going into the first turn.

Other trips are less obvious. MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex) broke poorly and any chance of racing up near the pace was lost. He was far back early then had to swing wide on the far turn. As he approached the top of the stretch, watch the NBC overhead-cam replay. For no apparent reason, he came out of the bridle and was only ahead of one horse turning for home.

Javier Castellano steered him to the inside and suddenly, Materiality began to pick up horses. The race was over as the top three were not coming back to the pack but here was Materiality running the fastest last quarter-mile of anyone and he did it without any momentum coming into the stretch.

Not sure what to make of it but he certainly showed that he can pass horses in a big field and ran back to his stout pedigree. I kept expecting to see some kind of interference that stopped him in his tracks but I don't see any traffic issues that would cause him to slow down at a key point in the race. Watch him in the Belmont S. (G1).

NBC's coverage of the Derby was what we expect. Lots of glitz and glamour. Maybe too much of Johnny Weir but their coverage is not geared for hardcore horseplayers. And, Johnny's partner, Tara Lipinski, is fantastic in anything she does. Sensational ratings show they are doing something right.

I was frustrated by the piece done on CALIFORNIA CHROME (Lucky Pulpit)'s ownership problems. They implied that Perry Martin and Steve Coburn are not getting along due to a disagreement on where the horse is going to run but there was not enough depth to the coverage. They interviewed the loquacious Coburn but never asked him any specific questions about when and why did the relationship go wrong. It made Martin, who is anything but loquacious, seem like the villain but he does own 70 percent of California Chrome and, thus, calls the shots.

There was a brief mention of him racing at Royal Ascot next month but they never really got into trainer Art Sherman's feeling of not having him back at his home base. Plus, no video of him training in Newmarket. They tried to re-visit last year's feel good story but didn't develop why the relationship went bad. Considering how long the show is, no real excuse not to answer why it went wrong.

Over 293,000 fans attended the races at Churchill Downs on Friday and Saturday. The television ratings on NBC were the highest in years and the betting was strong. The Preakness S. (G1) should do well but they face the prospect of rain on Saturday so we'll see if it holds down attendance and wagering. If AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof the Nile) wins the Preakness, Belmont attendance will be down some since NYRA has decided to restrict attendance to 90,000 since they proved they could not handle the 102,000 that showed up last year.

Still, despite an industry that seems to want to do whatever it can to destroy its own sport, the public loves these major events. They have never been more popular.

*****

In April of 2014, I wrote a scathing column in this space ridiculing the Jockey Club's announcement that a bunch of owners and trainers were going to voluntary submit veterinary records on their horses competing in graded stakes races. They would cover the previous 14 days and be available somehow through the Jockey Club at least two hours before the race.

Scathing may not be accurate enough as I was over the top in my attack on this as their way of responding to the PETA video of Steve Asmussen's training operation. I would search the Jockey Club website every once in a while to see where the vet records were but could never find them.

Well, it turns out that many of the owners and trainers that signed up have never disclosed the veterinary information that they said they would. It would be like calling the Jerry Lewis Muscular Dystrophy Telethon, pledging a bunch of money, and not sending the check.

After the Derby was run, the news leaked out that DORTMUND (Big Brown) had suffered from a bout of colic BEFORE the Derby. Nobody knew about it and had the Jockey Club done what they said it was going to do, we would have known BEFORE the race that he had been treated with Banamine. Instead, we find out AFTER the race.

I could go on and on and point out things that the industry never followed up on but I have to get back to playing the social media horse racing game that they said they were going to develop.


 


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