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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 13, 2006 by Dick Powell This is getting ridiculous. BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy) added to his string of dominant wins with an easy romp in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last Saturday at Belmont against three over-matched rivals. Yes, he beat suspect company but the way he did it was jaw-dropping. With 2006 winding down and many horses falling by the wayside, Bernardini is still firing bullets and his Gold Cup win may have been his best performance yet. Scary. Breaking from post 1, which was really about post 7 with the small field of four lined up in the outside stalls, Javier Castellano had Bernardini away in good order as has been his custom. He quickly yielded to the expected pacesetter Wanderin Boy (Seeking the Gold), who raced the first quarter in a dawdling 25.03. Castellano eased Bernardini to the outside in the run down the backstretch and, without exerting any energy, the colt pressed Wanderin Boy. The second quarter was a much quicker 23.10 and Bernardini settled beautifully despite the pace picking up. He has the unusual ability to cruise along and break the will of his opponents. The last great horse in America that we saw that could do that was 2003 Horse of the Year MINESHAFT (A.P. Indy). Wanderin Boy was forced to run his third quarter in 23.68 as Bernardini effortlessly tracked him, reducing his lead down to a half-length. Now, it was just a matter of when would Castellano seize command and the rider waited as long as he could. Midway around the far turn, Bernardini cruised by a tiring Wanderin Boy and, despite running about five lanes off the rail, took the lead with a fourth quarter mile in 24.05. The only question remaining was how much Bernardini would win by and how much Castellano would celebrate before hitting the wire. Fully throttled down, the bay colt pulled away to a 6 3/4-length victory with a final quarter in 25.16 with Castellano remaining quiet as could be. His final time was 2:01.02 with a six-furlong internal time of 1:10.83. He went off slow, finished rather slow, and yet the final time was excellent. His BRIS Speed figure of 116 was a career high and he did it without any urging from Castellano, who had trouble pulling him up after the race. Bernardini's middle pace figure of 113 is sensational for a 1 1/4-mile race. I am usually suspicious about horses who win without exerting much energy the next time they face a competitive field. However, Bernardini shows subtle dimensions in his romps that would lead me to believe that he'll be able to handle whatever is thrown at him in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs. Even if Bernardini faces a big, bulky field -- not likely off his recent domination -- he consistently breaks alertly for Castellano. He has enough tactical speed when asked -- see his run into the first turn in the Jim Dandy (G2) -- to keep him out of traffic trouble. He relaxes beautifully once Castellano takes his foot off the accelerator and then accelerates when the rider puts his foot back down. Being by A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) out of a stakes-winning Quiet American (Fappiano) mare, stamina is not a problem. If Bernardini can make it to the eighth-pole his genes will carry him to the finish line. The negative is that a series of battle-tested races might not have him combat-ready for the Classic. The positive is that he's winning these races with ease and clearly appears to have a lot of gas in the tank if he ever needs it. The main competition for Bernardini in the Breeders' Cup Classic will be from West Coast handicap star LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew), who won the Goodwood Breeders' Cup H. (G2) at Santa Anita 17 minutes after Bernardini crossed the finish line in New York. Undefeated in seven starts at age five this year and the winner of five Grade 1s going 1 1/4 miles on both turf and dirt, Lava Man ran his customary race where he goes to the front and dominates from there. He beat Brother Derek (Benchmark) and Giacomo (Holy Bull) handily by 2 1/4 and 3 1/4 lengths, respectively, in 1:48.15 while earning a BRIS Speed figure of 107. His highest BRIS Speed figure this year is the 110 that he earned when he won the Santa Anita H. (G1) and that number is nowhere near what Bernardini or INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes) have been running. The one thing that Lava Man has going for him is that he is proven capable of getting 10 furlongs under adverse circumstances. He overcame a stumbling start to win the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) and was brilliant in the Pacific Classic (G1). Trainer Doug O'Neill showed he's ready for prime time last year when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) with STEVIE WONDERBOY (Stephen Got Even). An an easy, albeit relatively slow, final prep race should not be held against Lava Man. He won't go down in the Classic without a fight. The other star of a weekend that saw numerous Grade 1 stakes run around the country was HENNY HUGHES (Hennessy), who dominated the Vosburgh S. (G1) over Belmont course specialist and defending Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) champion Silver Train (Old Trieste). Henny Hughes is undefeated in three starts this year for Kiaran McLaughlin and could not be going to the Sprint in any better fashion. The speedy Attila's Storm (Forest Wildcat) gunned to the front in the Vosburgh and led through a very slow first quarter of 22.34. Johnny Velazquez began to apply pressure aboard Henny Hughes and the race was on. The speedballs dueled through a half in 44.82 and Henny Hughes began to pull away. Silver Train was floundering and the only real threat was War Front (Danzig), who could not make up any real ground. Henny Hughes ran his final quarter in a sensational 23.31 and stopped the teletimer in 1:08.13. The three-year-old sprint star earned a BRIS Speed figure of 111, which is right in line with his two prior starts. Henny Hughes breaks fast enough to avoid some of the traffic that can be so tough to overcome in the Sprint and has enough of a finishing kick to merit favoritism. Velazquez is a terrific gate rider and he comes into the Sprint fast, fit and dangerous. Keeneland opened its much-anticipated fall meet with top-caliber horses racing over Polytrack. A few observations. Why can't they make a brown Polytrack? The first time I saw the Keeneland track on opening day I would have sworn I was watching Tampa Bay Downs. Just like Turfway Park, Keeneland is calling the track condition "fast" every day without acknowledging any weather conditions in the charts. On Wednesday, it rained for most of the day and only by reading the fine print of the charts would you know it. I maintain that Polytrack gets faster with moisture and would like to know if the track is wet. I know this goes against all the advertising claims that it's always a fast track but I think it makes a difference. Only time will tell if I am right. Turf pedigrees continue to run well over Polytrack as well as the turf-to-dirt move. The new formula for the surface that Polytrack came up with for Turfway in September does yield faster times and there does seem to be less kickback. However, speed did not do well in the first four days of racing over the Polytrack. Horses rallied from far back at all distances and the wide closers seemed to have an advantage over the inside closers. The perfect trip in two-turn races seems to be save some ground on the first turn and not worry about how wide you might be on the second turn. Being clear seems to be more important than saving ground. Part of this might be due to the kickback. At Turfway, it was obvious that horses that were in behind others did not always run well and many riders looked to get to the outside to not only get in the clear but get away from the kickback. I wouldn't be dogmatic about going with wide closers all the time but a versatile horse seems to have an advantage. So far, one-dimensional speed horses have not done well, but speed horses who can rate or take back are OK as long as they can get to the outside. It's been fun following all of this but we'll see if it's going to be fun risking real money.
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