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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS APRIL 27, 2007 by Dick Powell The Kentucky Derby (G1) is just over a week away and some decisions have to be made about how you are going to handicap it. Here are some questions that I ask myself as the race nears, post positions are drawn and weather forecasts solidify. Does it pay to handicap the Derby like any other race? Yes, I handicap the Derby like it was any other Grade 1 stakes for three-year-olds going 1 1/4 miles for the first time in a field of 20. The Derby is run under a unique set of circumstances. If we had 20 of these races run each year, I would advise to handicap like any other race, but since there is only one Derby, you have to take into account its uniqueness. The issue is how much do you bet. Do you go overboard since there is so much value on the board, or do you use the Derby in multiple-race wagers where you can go four or five deep? Yes, there is only one Derby. And yes, if you pick the winner, every time they show the replay that night will bring you even more joy. But for most of us the Derby is an event with a lot of what-ifs. Most of us cannot afford eight-horse exacta boxes or trifecta wheels in a 20-horse field. My advice is to try to bet more combinations in your exotics with less money. If you go into the day thinking you are going to hit a "cold number," you better save money for some mint juleps to wash down the disappointment. The Derby is always exciting but not always profitable. How much do the "trends" influence your handicapping? Trends are not scientific evidence and need to be treated as such. Having lived through the days when the Blue Grass (G1) was run two Thursdays before the Derby or the Stepping Stone S. was run the Tuesday before, I have to make sure that I appreciate how much training and scheduling has changed. Barbaro won last year's Derby off a five-week layoff and the trend in racing has been for trainers to look for as much time as possible between races. As little as five years ago, a CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) trying to win the Derby off an eight-week layoff would mean that he was injured and missed a prep or two. Now, these layoffs are planned by the trainer. Carl Nafzger won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last year with STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) and promptly announced that he would only have two preps this year. Most of this year's major contenders have had two or three. Once you get by the infrequent racing trend, you then have to understand how few times the major contenders have faced each other. The years of the major contenders facing off before the first Saturday of May are gone and when they do face off, there might be extenuating circumstances to render the race meaningless. With fewer races, trainer intent becomes extremely important. Each horse has to be examined as a developing three-year-old that is being asked to run longer than he ever has before. Somewhere along the line, he has to have shown Grade 1 ability going two turns. Sprints, even long ones, don't count. How much stock do you put in how strong a circuit has been? Last year, all the quantitative analysis showed that the races in Arkansas were slowish and despite a winning streak, Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr) looked suspect. This year, the Santa Anita prep races seem to be below par. Can a horse like CURLIN (Smart Strike) win with only three lifetime starts? As Marv Albert would say, "Yes!" Curlin broke his maiden going seven furlongs in fast time and then won his two-turn debut, the Rebel S. (G3). His Arkansas Derby (G2) victory was brilliant, so there's no question he has the talent. Even though he lacks the experience of the others, the difference is not that great since the other contenders are lightly raced. Curlin has a perfect running style with an ability to get away from the gate in good order, use his natural speed to stay up with the leaders, and have a ton of energy in the stretch. His final BRIS Pace numbers in the Arkansas Derby were fantastic since he ran near the pace and still finished with a sub-12 second last furlong. What about dosage? Although not in the news as much in the past few years, dosage analysis is a valuable tool to examine a horse's innate ability to get 10 furlongs on the first Saturday of May. The only contender this year with a dosage index higher than 4.0 is DOMINICAN (El Corredor), who comes in at 4.33. I wouldn't throw him out because of it but will consider it a negative. One thing to keep in mind is that the entire gene pool of American Thoroughbreds is more slanted to speed than ever before so that their dosage indices, a measurement of the ratio of speed to stamina in a horse's pedigree, continues to creep higher. Stallions that sire horses that can win at 1 1/2 miles are now ignored by American breeders in favor of sprinting types that sire horses that mature early. How does Polytrack figure in this year? The Blue Grass S. (G1), the Lane's End S. (G2) and the Lexington S. (G2) were run over Polytrack this year. After all the talk about speed not doing well going two turns at Keeneland, SLEW'S TIZZY (Tiznow) went gate to wire to win the Lexington. Dominican is a real problem to analyze since all three of his wins have come on Polytrack. I do think that horses training on Polytrack regularly have a big advantage since their trainers can be a bit more aggressive with their workouts, so their horses might be fitter for a distance they have never run. Will we ever see another Triple Crown winner? With trainers wanting more time between races, you would think that running three times in five weeks would become less desirable no matter how significant the races are. But this could help a horse win the Triple Crown. The trend will continue to develop that the horses that do not win the Derby will be less likely to compete in the Preakness (G1) than ever before. Most will wait for the Belmont S. (G1) or other races in the summer. The Derby winner almost has to run in the Preakness, but will face much weaker competition. If he can beat a weak field two weeks after the Derby, he goes to the Belmont with a great chance. The chances of Derby winners making it through the Preakness to the Belmont will increase, and one of them will complete the sweep.
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