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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 4, 2007 by Dick Powell Recently, trainer Todd Pletcher was asked, "If someone put a gun to your head, which of your five Kentucky Derby (G1) entrants do you like the most?" Pletcher, ever cool, said, "I'd take the bullet." Pletcher has to worry about offending four other owners if he tips his hand and divulges who has the best chance in the Run for the Roses. I have no such worries and can offend the connections of 19 other Derby starters. I like CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) to win Saturday's 133rd running of the most exciting two minutes in sports. Yes, he skipped the Wood Memorial (G1) last month when Pletcher called an audible and decided to train him up to the race. And he now comes into the race off an eight-week layoff. But anyone that has watched his weekly workouts from Keeneland the past four Sundays has seen a horse ready to explode. A son of 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch, Circular Quay won his first three career starts, including the Hopeful S. (G1) when he rallied from far back to beat stablemate Scat Daddy (Johannesburg). He then was beaten by Great Hunter (Aptitude) in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland when he was knocked sideways nearing the top of the stretch. Finishing third that day was Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]), who came back to beat Circular Quay in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when he rallied boldly up the rail. This year, Circular Quay's seasonal debut was ruined in the Risen Star S. (G3) at the Fair Grounds when Slew's Tizzy (Tiznow) unseated his jockey in front of him turning for home. Unscathed, Circular Quay came back in the Louisiana Derby (G2) to run as good as any three-year-old has this year. Far back early, Circular Quay rallied strongly to win going away in, by anyone's measure, a very fast time. His BRIS Speed figure was a strong 105 and his final Pace numbers were an excellent 101 and 105. Originally considered to be a closing sprinter, Circular Quay has shown that he can get two turns with no trouble. He's a lot more athletic than his charts appear and is quick enough to maneuver through a big field on Saturday. Pletcher is excellent with horses stretching out and he retains Johnny Velazquez in the irons. Circular Quay's 8-1 in the morning line and will be possibly higher come raceday, so he represents good value as well. At this point, I might agree with Pletcher about taking the bullet. But, for second I'll go with Street Sense for a lot of obvious reasons. His sophomore campaign has gone exactly as trainer Carl Nafzger had mapped out and he comes into the race perfectly off two prep races. His training at Churchill has been sensational and Nafzger will have him primed for a big effort. The only knock I have on him is that he is a tall horse with a long stride and we have seen many similar types have trouble in the expected traffic jam. I do love his pedigree as his sire Street Cry is an emerging source of stamina. Beneath the top two, I'll go with Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great), Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) and Tiago (Pleasant Tap). I thought Barclay Tagg caught a big break when Todd Pletcher picked post 16 for Circular Quay and left open post 12 for Tagg to put Nobiz Like Shobiz in. Winner of the Wood Memorial, Nobiz Like Shobiz adapted to blinkers and cotton in his ears last out and should be ready to handle the bedlam on Saturday. He's always had immense talent and I like the way that Tagg has brought him up to the race. With enough speed to his inside, Cornelio Velasquez should be able to work out a stalking trip with him. Cowtown Cat is a scary colt getting better with distance at the right time. He's won both of his two-turn starts and earned a massive 106 BRIS Speed figure when winning the Illinois Derby (G2) in his last start. Even though he dominated on the front end that day, he's versatile enough to sit a bit off the pace with Fernando Jara, who in the last 12 months, has won the Belmont S. (G1), Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1). I don't like Tiago because he's a half-brother to Derby winner Giacomo. I like him because his maiden victory in his two-turn debut was eye-catching and his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win was very professional. At long odds, his stretch kick will probably put him in the gimmicks. I am leaving out most of the speed horses, at great risk. Curlin (Smart Strike) drew post 2, but in the Arkansas Derby (G2) he was able to sit behind the speed with great ease. The problem he faces is how far he gets shuffled back by the speed horses to his outside and whether he can overcome a large deficit in a bulky field. Pass. Hard Spun (Danzig) drew perfectly in post 8, but he's a hard horse to figure out. Winner of his first four starts, he ran poorly in the Southwest S. at Oaklawn but then came back with a terrific win in the Lane's End S. (G2) on the Polytrack at Turfway Park. You would think all systems would be go, but his connections wouldn't commit to the Derby until he worked well at Churchill. His :57 3/5 five-furlong breeze on Monday was awesome, but too close to the race. It looks like he'll go to the front if he breaks well, but I'll leave him out. Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) is reportedly training with a bar shoe. Derby Day is always a tough day to get information but if you like the winner of the Florida Derby (G1), you might want to make sure he doesn't have it on. The four horses on the far outside have my deepest condolences. Stormello (Stormy Atlantic) drew 17 and even though he has enough gate speed to join the leaders going into the first turn, he figures to use too much energy to do it. Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) drew 18, a brutal post for a horse that figures to be running in midpack. He'll have to show a new dimension of coming from far out of it to contend from there. Dominican (El Corredor) drew 19, but at least he can take way back and make one big run. Undefeated in three starts on Polytrack, he ran a good third here last fall but would be lucky to get into the money. Finally, Great Hunter (Aptitude) drew 20 in what looks like the second tough-luck race in a row. Impressive winner of the Bob Lewis S. (G2) two starts back, he was interfered with last out in the Blue Grass S. (G1) and now has to face the prospect of losing ground on both turns. The betting strategy will be a win/place bet on Circular Quay. I’ll play an exacta box with him and Street Sense then key the two of them over Nobiz Like Shobiz, Cowtown Cat and Tiago in trifecta box wheels. Rain and showers are in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, so there is the prospect of running over a wet track.
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