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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING MAY 12, 2007 Three-year-olds to watch from Keeneland maiden races by Tim Holland For many years, the quality of Keeneland's maiden races has been among the best in the country, and this spring appeared to be no exception with many of these events contested by runners with bright futures. The highest BRIS Speed figure recorded in the dozen or so maiden special weights for three-year-old males at the recently concluded meet was the impressive 99. This was earned by the Patrick Biancone-trained QUASICOBRA (Wild Rush), who was racing about seven furlongs in his second lifetime start, in the 6TH race on April 13. He is by Wild Rush, who sired Grade 1 winners Stellar Jayne and Hollywood Story, as well as Canadian champion Judiths Wild Rush, among others, before his export to Japan. Quasicobra's dam is the stakes-winning Mutton Maniac, by Wolf Power (SAf), who is the broodmare sire of the near $3 million-earner Milwaukee Brew. After dropping to the back of the field early in the race, jockey Julien Leparoux put Quasicobra into contention via a six-wide move turning for home, and the dark bay drew off down the stretch to win by nearly three lengths while running slightly green. It must be said that the Polytrack was favorable to his closing running style and that the early pace of the leaders was strong, but there is no doubting the strength of not only Quasicobra's final rating, but also his Late Pace Figure of 108. Indeed, as a comparison it can be noted that Divine Park (Chester House) rallied from the back of the pack to win an allowance over the same trip six days earlier earning a Speed figure of 96 and a Late Pace figure of 109. Three weeks later, Divine Park captured the competitive Withers S. (G3) at Aqueduct. Quasicobra returned to race again at Keeneland at the same distance just 12 days after his maiden victory. Again ridden by Leparoux, Quaiscobra made a similar wide move on the final turn and gained a clear lead in the stretch but was worn down late by the more experienced Morada Key (Carson City). While Quasicobra's Speed figure did regress five points, this was still a remarkable performance since he broke slowly and there was little early pace to set the race up for his closing kick. With Polytrack installed at Arlington and the Cushion Track at Hollywood, it would be no surprise to see Quasicobra make his next appearance at one of those venues where Biancone races and, with turf influence on his dam's side, a try on the grass would have to be considered a possibility. While Keeneland's relatively new Polytrack surface may be generally fairer than the old dirt surface, front runners were at a definite disadvantage, and watching for runners whose early speed was a negative can be financially rewarding when they reappear on a traditional dirt surface. This could be the case with STEVE'S DOUBLE (Stephen Got Even), who set the pace before finishing third in Quasicobra's maiden race. A $200,000 two-year-old in training purchase out of a mare by Al Nasr (Fr), Steve's Double is trained by Ronny Werner and has been training at Churchill Downs, at which locale he should be watched for. Also showing speed in this event was LEAP DAY (Gold Token), who made a four-wide bid before staying on well to be second. A New York-bred trained by Michael Hushion, Leap Day is now working at Belmont where he can be expected to race next. The second highest Speed figure earned by a maiden winner at the Keeneland meet was the 97 awarded to Markdale (Holy Bull), who won the second division of the maiden special weight won by Quasicobra, carded as the 10TH race on April 13. Out of a half-sister to 2004 Queen's Plate winner Niigon, Markdale duplicated Quasicobra's Late Pace figure of 109 when finishing fast to gain a narrow decision over the Bobby Frankel-trained TIGHT GRIP (Distorted Humor). Shipped to Woodbine for his next start, Markdale boosted the value of this maiden race's form when he finished a solid second in a stakes race, beaten by Jiggs Coz (Cozzene), one of Canada's leading three-year-olds. This leads one to believe that Tight Grip, who is from the family of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner War Emblem, is worth watching for. Well bet as the favorite in that Keeneland maiden, Tight Grip broke fast from the 10 post and was in contention throughout before being nipped at the wire in a good effort over a track that did not suit his style. The 6TH race on April 15 was a competitive maiden, with more than half the field making their debuts, and the first three finishers all deserve noting. Winner's Story (Grand Slam) was forced out when starting from the widest post but recovered under Garrett Gomez to gain a stalking position before obliging by more than a length as the 2.30-1 favorite, earning a Speed figure of 87. Trained by Michael Stidham, Winner's Story is out of a half-sister to Grade 3 winner and useful sire Cobra King, and the gelding made his second start in an allowance at Arlington Park this week where he encountered trouble and finished sixth. PAPA BEAR (Distorted Humor), who like Leap Day is trained by Hushion, also raced forwardly throughout this heat before taking the lead in the stretch and finally yielding late to Winner's Story. Papa Bear cost $240,000 as a yearling and is out of a full sister to Acorn S. (G1) winner Forest Secrets from the family of multiple champion and Grade 1 winner Silverbulletday. Like his stablemate, Papa Bear is based in New York and should not be long breaking his maiden in that state. With the track favoring closers, it is not a surprise that CRACK THE COGNAC (Hennessy), who set the fast fractions into the stretch in this event, did not win, but it was somewhat surprising that he held on well to be third once passed by the first and second-place finishers. A smallish, sprint-type colt, Crack the Cognac will surely be suited better by speed friendly dirt tracks, and the Thomas Proctor trainee is working forwardly at Churchill Downs. The betting public slipped up in the last maiden race of the meet for three-year-old colts, the 6TH race on April 26. They allowed PAUILLAC (Mr. Greeley), a first-time starter from Biancone's barn, which wins at a rate of about 20 percent, to start at odds of nearly 8-1. After breaking slowly, Pauillac, who was a $1 million yearling purchase, mirrored the win earlier in the meet by Quasicobra by circling the field and winning going away. While Pauillac's Speed rating of 88 was considerably lower than that of his stablemate, improvement can be expected from this colt. Much of the reason for the inflated price on Pauillac was due to the heavy support for UNBRIDLED TRUST (Unbridled's Song), who was dispatched as the odds-on favorite. A $950,000 September Sale yearling making his debut for Steve Asmussen, Unbridled Trust dueled for the lead until the final furlong and faded late to finish fourth. The gray colt is another that the track and race set-up did not suit, and he should be given another chance and can be expected to race next at Churchill. Two more that did not seem to enjoy the surface at Keeneland were the well fancied HAWAII CALLS (Fusaichi Pegasus) and COUNSELLED (A. P. Indy), who were both unplaced in a nine-furlong maiden, carded as the 6TH race on April 21. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Hawaii Calls had finished a good third in his debut when going a mile at Gulfstream Park in February and had more recently worked well with Derby hope Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch). As the mild favorite, Hawaii Calls made a run from midpack at the turn from home, but never looked likely to win and finished fifth behind Lemon Custard (Lemon Drop Kid), who was making his ninth lifetime start. Counselled, who is out of champion and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner Countess Diana (Deerhound), finished two places behind Hawaii Calls. Having shown speed in his two previous starts, including in a tough maiden on the grass, Counselled dueled for the lead before faltering at the top of the stretch. Counselled, who was one of several examples in the meet that horses that like turf do not necessarily act well on Polytrack, should be given another chance when returned to his preferred surface.
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