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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 18, 2007 by Dick Powell Having fewer factors to handicap a race doesn't mean it will be an easy race; it just means that there will be fewer factors to consider. This Saturday's Preakness S. (G1) has fewer factors to consider than the Kentucky Derby (G1) two weeks ago, but still is a tough race to figure out. Only nine horses will enter the gate, with only four horses returning from the Derby to contest the second leg of the Triple Crown. And the five newcomers do not do much for me. Last year we had Bernardini waiting in the wings; this year, we have only two graded stakes winners and both of them did it in one-turn races. So, it looks like it comes down to the four starters who contested the Kentucky Derby, and the five newcomers will only play a role in how the race is run. Each of the four has his selling points. Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) came from way back while saving ground on the inside to win going away. Hard Spun (Danzig) was courageous on the lead after gunning for the front and staying there for nine furlongs. Curlin (Smart Strike) showed that lack of experience and a late start to his career were not going to deter him from running a big race while in traffic like he will never see again. And, Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) had the kind of trip you could expect from post 16 and a late-running style. Street Sense offers little interest to me. He'll be a heavy favorite and he might be the best of his generation, but he's lost as many races as he has won, so he's not unbeatable. If he beats me, fine; as long as it's at even money. Hard Spun ran his eyeballs out in the Derby with a first quarter in :22.96 and was able to stake out his claim at the front of the pack with many other speedballs chasing him. Mario Pino was able to get him to relax on the lead, and I loved it when he opened up three lengths at the top of the stretch. The Derby is not handed to you, and Pino and Hard Spun were going after it. Any bit of traffic for Street Sense and Hard Spun is home free, and Cowboy Larry Jones would have been in the winner's circle with his sartorially opposite owner, Rick Porter. Curlin is a hard horse for me to root for since he was sold out from under Helen Pitts, who trained him to one of the most brilliant maiden wins Gulfstream Park has seen in years. Turned over to Steve Asmussen, he won the Rebel S. (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) by wide margins at Oaklawn Park and then ran very professionally at Churchill after being shuffled back from an inside post. He was able to rally for third after finding running room turning for home and could still be improving. CIRCULAR QUAY wound up on the outside of the track from post 16 and never really showed the stretch kick that he had in his best races. At no point did it look like he was grabbing the track the way the horses that ran on the inside were. After a half-mile work at Belmont Park the other day, Todd Pletcher decided to enter him in the Preakness where he will also have King of the Roxy (Littleexpectations). Circular Quay's win in the Louisiana Derby (G2) was fantastic, and the shorter distance of the Preakness should be no problem for him. I loved the way he trained for the Derby and felt that the drying-out track cost him the chance to unleash his powerful late rally. Was he going to beat Street Sense that day? Probably not. But of the four Derby starters in the Preakness, Circular Quay figures to improve the most in only his second start in 10 weeks. Circular Quay has won graded stakes at Churchill Downs, Saratoga, Fair Grounds and finished ahead of Street Sense on the Polytrack at Keeneland last October. He draws an inside post, can drop back and bide his time behind what should be a strong pace, and then make one, big move. Hard Spun is the real danger with a rider who knows his way around Pimlico as good as anyone. His BRIS Pace numbers in the Derby were sensational and he's more versatile than he showed in the Derby. If Pino wants to stalk, he can let the leaders go and sit chilly while waiting for the right time to move. Danzig is a great wet-track sire, and expected showers would be a welcome sight for Larry Jones. Hard to leave Street Sense out of the top two, but including him in any exactas will drop the price big time. I love his pedigree for going long, and if he is to be beaten in one of the three legs of the Triple Crown, it looks like it will be the Preakness. We'll see how he handles the track on Saturday, but as the favorite, he is a toss for me. Betting strategy: big win bet on Circular Quay, exacta box with Hard Spun and then those two over the other seven in trifecta wheels. This doesn't look like a race that giant payoffs are going to fall into your lap, so you are going to have to be more aggressive in how much you are betting if you want to make decent money.
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