PICK THREE, PICK SIX, & TRIFECTA PLAYS January 29, 2005 *********************************************************************** This Saturday I'll be offering a special stakes package for the SUNSHINE MILLIONS. These are 8 stakes races, 4 at Gulfstream and 4 at Santa Anita, all run on Saturday afternoon and all open to California and Florida breds only. Last year this special card produced great racing and excellent value due to some large fields. I'll be offering race analysis and wagering strategies for all 8 of these races in one package for only $10. ********************************************************************** INTRODUCTION: With the exception of playing the Pick Six when there is a reasonably large carryover, the Pick 3 & Pick 4 are the best wagers at the track. Despite being comparable to a three-race parlay win bet, there is only one takeout from Pick Three wagers, as opposed to the three that would occur on a true parlay. The Pick Three is essentially a baby Pick Six, and should be viewed in that way. But unlike the Pick Six, the Pick Three is not played by large syndicates who can play hundreds or even thousands of combinations, and are the only ones left standing to pick up all of the cash when a couple of longshots knock all of the small bettors out. The key similarity between the Pick Three and Pick Six is that they often provide very generous payoffs that exceed what the win parlay payoffs would have been, and that is where we focus our strategy. The Pick Three can provide large payoffs for the small bettor who is patient in his or her play and looks for value every time he or she makes this bet. It is imperative to point out that the very nature of the Pick Three differentiates it from regular win/place/show betting, and even exacta/daily double wagering, in that it is NOT a bet that you will hit with high frequency. As those of you who have already purchased this sheet in its first six years of existence know, often is the time that we hit two of the three legs, but miss on a close call in the other one. If you choose to partake in the Pick Three wager, you must be patient, and not judge your play (or this sheet, for that matter) on one day's, or even one week's, performance. Long-term profit on Pick Three or Pick Six plays is derived from pursuing sequences that will be overlaid (i.e. not over-using favorites), and by that very definition the FREQUENCY of hitting a favorable Pick Three will be fairly low, although the payoffs, when hit, will be fairly high. Avoiding favorites as much as possible is the key to catching Pick Three overlays. If you can't see past one, two, or all three of the favorites in a Pick Three series, then don't make the bet. Playing the favorites, or only low-priced horses, from all three races on the same ticket always results in underlaid payoffs when they win. Our strategy will generally be to put some mid-priced and longshot horses on each ticket in logical combinations with high-probability favorites. They WILL NOT produce a winning Pick Three ticket every day, but when they do, there will be value in the payoff, and our long-term return on investment will benefit from our patience in playing the Pick Three in this manner. Again, if you are the type of player who needs to cash a ticket with relatively high frequency, then the suggestion is to stick with basic win/place/show or exacta betting, which is emphasized in my daily track-specific sheets. Our approach here will be to provide relatively inexpensive plays (generally $35 or less) keyed upon horses we feel strongly about from our analysis of major tracks across the country. You can double, triple, or even cut in half the amounts suggested on our plays based on your personal budget and level of play. When we suggest Pick Six plays, we will generally provide two or three separate plays for each Pick Six that we analyze; one basic play, one for the middle-budget player, and one for the player willing to invest a fair amount in this potentially windfall-producing bet. The Pick Six offers the best value on days when there is a carryover, and on those days, our strategy and suggested plays for this bet will be more detailed and usually involve larger tickets. However, even when there is not a carryover, a moderate investment is sometimes desirable for many players in the event that their top selections fare very well. Two or three trifectas will be suggested daily when it appears a good wagering opportunity arises. Trifectas can offer generous payoffs when one or two mid-priced or longshot horses can hit the board, and this wager allows us to concentrate on a key horse or two in a single race rather than having to combine those key horses with projected winners in other races that may not provide the same level of confidence. Trifectas many times offer a good compliment to Pick 3's. Finally, those of you that purchase the daily selection sheets and race-by-race analysis from specific tracks will notice that we don't give details on each individual horse here as we do on those sheets. That is because this is intended to be a wagering guide, not a handicapping guide. There is a big difference between the two. It takes one type of skill to handicap a race and deduce the most likely contenders and winners, but it is a separate type of analysis and skill that is needed to properly combine those selections in the optimal ways to allow for long-term profit potential. Both are important in the sport of horse racing, and we believe that we're the first in the business to offer daily guidance and instruction in the area of wagering strategies. ********************************************************************* AQUEDUCT PICK 3 RACES 2-4 RACE 2: (2)GODDESS OF LOVE RACE 3: (1)Entry (2)Absolute (3)Whateveralowants (6)Greenjay RACE 4: (1a)WONFORJODI (2)Northern Storm (3)Boggy Creek Dancer (4)English Rain (8)Breeze On Ticket One: 2 / 1-2-3-6 / 1a-2-3-4-8 = 1x4x5x$1 = $20 Ticket Two: 2 / ALL / 1a = 1x6x1x$1 = $6 GODDESS OF LOVE gets a considerable drop in class from two races against much tougher MSW company. In her only prior start vs. maiden claimers she showed good speed and finished 2nd, 12 lengths clear of 3rd. That was also her last race around one turn, which she may prefer. She's much better bred for sprinting. AQUEDUCT PICK 3 RACES 5-7 RACE 5: (2)DASL CAMMY RACE 6: (1)Whatatrophy Rack (3)What's Your Point (5)Acey Deucey (6)Miss Greeny RACE 7: (2)Kara Patriot (5)Rubi Echo (6)Citizenship (7)Jet Prospector (9)EXPLOIT LAD Ticket One: 2 / 1-3-5-6 / 2-5-6-7-9 = 1x4x5x$1 = $20 Ticket Two: 2 / ALL / 9 = 1x8x1x$1 = $8 DASL CAMMY faced open company in the first 12 starts of her career and ran well in several races. She then got a trainer change to high % conditioner Scott Lake, who brought her to New York to face state bred company for her Dec 31 race. In that event she showed improved early speed to duel from the start, finishing a good 3rd. She then took a step forward in her Jan 15 race, where she stalked the pace and finished a clear 2nd to the heavily favored winner. She appears to be sitting on a top effort and will probably sit another good stalking trip off an expected speed duel. Switches to Migliore. AQUEDUCT PICK 3 RACES 7-9 RACE 7: (2)Kara Patriot (5)Rubi Echo (6)Citizenship (7)Jet Prospector (9)EXPLOIT LAD RACE 8: (7)MR. WHITESTONE RACE 9: (3)Act Of Reform (5)Bubba Sparks (7)It's So Simple (8)Mister Hennessy (9)Mysweethearts Gone Ticket One: 2-5-6-7-9 / 7 / 3-5-7-8-9 = 5x1x5x$1 = $25 Ticket Two: 9 / 7 / ALL = 1x1x10x$1 = $10 MR. WHITESTONE With a ton of speed in this race this inner track lover can sit the right stalking trip. He posted a dominant win from off the pace when returning from a 2-month layoff Nov 5, but then on Dec 19 he was victimized by a speed bias in a race where the winner got loose on an easy lead through a relatively slow half mile pace pace. Mr. Whitestone flew home in the stretch that day, getting his final two furlongs in :11-1/5 and :11-4/5, but he was left with way too much to do. Since then he's put in four more works over this track, and he appears set for a top effort in his third start off the short layoff. AQUEDUCT TRIFECTA PLAY OF THE DAY RACE 3 TOP SPOT: (2)ABSOLUTE 2ND SPOT: (1)Entry (3)Whateveralowants (5)Gatito Fuerte (6)Greenjay 3RD SPOT: ALL (6 entry field) $1 TRIFECTA TICKET: 2 / 1-3-5-6 / ALL = $16 $1 TRIFECTA TICKET: 2 / 1-3-6 / 1-3-6 = $6 ABSOLUTE: After a weak debut against MSW company this colt was dropped in against maiden claimers for his second start. The result was a dominant win at 13-1 Dec 19 in his first try over this track. He may not have liked a muddy track Jan 5 and was also facing much tougher company than he does today. Eligible to rebound at square price on class drop. AQUEDUCT PICK SIX RACES 4-9 RACE 4: (1a)Wonforjodi (8)Breeze On RACE 5: (2)DASL CAMMY RACE 6: (1)Whatatrophy Rack (3)What's Your Point (5)Acey Deucey (6)Miss Greeny RACE 7: (9)EXPLOIT LAD RACE 8: (7)MR. WHITESTONE RACE 9: (3)Act Of Reform (5)Bubba Sparks (7)It's So Simple (9)Mysweethearts Gone ALTERNATE SELECTIONS: In case of scratches, the following would be the suggested horse to use in each race as a substitute: RACE 4: (2)Northern Storm RACE 5: (3)Evening Edition RACE 6: None RACE 7: (6)Citizenship RACE 8: (2)Don Six RACE 9: (8)Mister Hennessy $2 Pick Six Ticket: 1a-8 / 2 / 1-3-5-6 / 9 / 7 / 3-5-7-9 = $64 I've constructed a basic $64 suggested ticket for those interested. If you choose to play, the only suggestion is that you NOT play above your own level of comfort. There is NO CARRYOVER today. ********************************************************************* GULFSTREAM PICK 3 RACES 5-7 NOTE: This play is for TURF ONLY RACE 5: (4)GRAND SCORE RACE 6: (1)Wild Buddy (2)Up Anchor (3)One Eyed Joker (7)Mellowes (10)Delta Form RACE 7: (1)Mooji Moo (4)BEAR FAN (5)Alix M Ticket One: 4 / 1-2-3-7-10 / 1-4-5 = 1x5x3x$1 = $15 Ticket Two: 4 / ALL / 4 = 1x12x1x$1 = $12 GRAND SCORE showed much ability as a 2yo, breaking his maiden second out at Keeneland and coming back to finish third in the G3 Iroquois against the likes of The Cliff's Edge. Only made five starts last year as a 3yo, finishing in the money three times but requiring frequent layoff s. He's been on the bench since late November and I look for a winning performance while returning in a good spot today for trainer John Ward. Colt will appreciate the stretch back out to a mile and barn has this one ready to fire. Prado aboard helps. GULFSTREAM TRIFECTA PLAY OF THE DAY RACE 8 TOP SPOT: (5)LOST IN THE FOG 2ND SPOT: (1)Entry (7)Bushwacker (8)Santana Strings 3RD SPOT: ALL (9 entry field) $1 TRIFECTA TICKET: 5 / 1-7-8 / ALL = $21 $1 TRIFECTA TICKET: 5 / 1-7-8 / 1-7-8 = $6 LOST IN THE FOG appears to stand above the rest. He's demolished his fields in both starts in very fast time. Both the pace and final time were legitimately blazing and in both starts he won under wraps. He has trained like a monster for this stake, shipping east from Golden Gate Fields for top trainer Greg Gilchrist, who has been one the most dominant trainers in the U.S. the last couple of years. He's shown the ability to rate right off a fast pace and then blow away the competition. Lost In The Fog only needs to handle the Gulfstream strip to run his record 3 for 3. Baze is in for the ride. ******************************************************************** OAKLAWN PARK PICK 3 RACES 7-9 RACE 7: (11)CASUAL CAT RACE 8: (5)Miss Elsie (7)Miss Concerto (9)Riverbrook RACE 9: (2)True Tails (3)More Moonlight (4)Angel Trumpet (5)My Three Sisters Ticket One: 11 / 5-7-9 / 2-3-4-5 = 1x3x4x$1 = $12 Ticket Two: 11 / ALL / 3-4 = 1x9x2x$1 = $18 CASUAL CAT turned in a game effort in his debut last fall at Hawthorne, flashing good speed and holding on well for third. Expect him to take another step forward today for trainer Steve Hobby, who excels second time out, winning at a clip of 45%. Gelding has been sizzling in the a.m. since shipping to Oaklawn, posting two bullets in a row, with the last being the best of 53 horses. He has the speed to overcome the outside post draw and can earn his diploma with Doocy aboard. ******************************************************************** FAIR GROUNDS PICK 3 RACES 4-6 RACE 4: (1)GOLD MARGARITA (3)Nicki's Wish (5)Love For All RACE 5: (2)PRINCE T. RACE 6: (3)One Tuff Cat (4)Classy Okie (10)Crab Creek (11)Rockies Ticket One: 1-3-5 / 2 / 3-4-10-11 = 3x1x4x$1 = $12 Ticket Two: 1 / 2 / ALL = 1x1x12x$1 = $12 Ticket Three: 1 / 2 / 3-4-11 = 1x1x3x$1 = $3 PRINCE T. has a bright future in Bayou-bred stakes races. After a very impressive maiden win he was a well-bet 2nd choice in the Crescent City Derby. He pressed the brilliant Crimson Stag for 6 furlongs and held on for third. He had some nice colts behind him that day, breezed a strong 5 furlongs since raced and retains Lanerie. Figures to get a great trip pressing a moderate pace. ******************************************************************** SANTA ANITA PICK 3 RACES 1-3 NOTE: This play is for turf OR dirt RACE 1: (1)Silver Screen Hero (2)San Remy (3)Gospodin (7)Swift Response (8)Tizzaround RACE 2: (2)Coded Message (3)Astonished (5)My Last Chance (7)Goodnews Bay (9)Savonarola (10)Sex Machine RACE 3: (10)COASTAL STRIKE Ticket One: 1-2-3-7-8 / 2-3-5-7-9-10 / 10 = 5x6x1x$1 = $30 Ticket Two: None COASTAL STRIKE was most impressive last summer at Del Mar, winning both of her starts. She dueled in her well-bet debut July 23, then drew off in the stretch. She then stepped up into stakes company September 1 and took command from the start by setting a blazing pace, holding off two bids in the stretch. Unfortunately, she fell victim to sore shins after that, and hasn't raced since. Given her five months since last raced it's reasonable to assume that she's grown and matured since last seen as a 2-year-old. Her three 6F works over this track in January are all tremendous and suggest that she is fit and ready for this race. We know that she can run well fresh and she just might be versatile enough to stalk the pace today from her outside post. Gary Stevens was aboard for all three of those recent works and has gotten to know her well for this race. SANTA ANITA PICK 3 RACES 3-5 RACE 3: (1)Memorette (6)She's A Jewel (7)Brooke's Halo (9)Short Route (10)Coastal Strike (11)Running Bobcats RACE 4: (1)Green Team (5)My Cousin Matt (6)Onebadshark (7)Areyoutalkintome (13)Bilo RACE 5: (4)A TO THE Z Ticket One: 1-6-7-9-10-11 / 1-5-6-7-13 / 4 = 6x5x1x$1 = $30 Ticket Two: None A TO THE Z has turned into a monster since moving to the turf this summer. He's improved with almost every one of his five turf starts, and gets a drop in class today after nearly pulling off a 41-1 upset in the G1 Citation Nov 27. In that race he was rated far back, then hit traffic trouble while in the midst of a bold rail rally on the far turn and in upper stretch. Despite the trouble he gave winner Leroidesanimaux all he could handle that day, and I consider that runner to be among the top 3 middle distance turf runners in the country. Prior to that A To The Z inhaled a solid Cal Cup Mile field on the turn and drew off to an authoritative win over this turf course Oct 16. He's been pointed to this race while being freshened for two months and he should get a solid pace to set up his late kick. SANTA ANITA PICK 3 RACES 6-8 NOTE: This play is for turf OR dirt RACE 6: (1)House Of Fortune (2)Alphabet Kisses (3)Dream Of Summer (5)Yearly Report RACE 7: (1)Fantastic Spain (2)PRIVATE CHEF (3)Direct Male (4)Sigfreto (7)Legal Logic (9)Bat Mobile RACE 8: (8)BRAVE CHARMER Ticket One: 1-2-3-5 / 1-2-3-4-7-9 / 8 = 4x6x1x$1 = $24 Ticket Two: 3-5 / 2 / 8 = 2x1x1x$3 = $6 BRAVE CHARMER Owned by George Steinbrenner's Kinsman Farm, this homebred appears set to graduate in his second start. He debuted in an extremely fast race here Jan 15, where he ran very well to finish 3rd behind his favored, winning stablemate. In that race Brave Charmer chased a fast pace, made a move into blazing middle fractions, then wasn't abused in the final furlong while understandably tiring. This half brother to two stakes winners is by stamina sire Touch Gold, and should only get better with more distance. Baffert won at a big 24% rate with second time starters last year and Brave Charmer is expected to move forward off his valuable 'educational' debut. SANTA ANITA TRIFECTA PLAY OF THE DAY RACE 7 NOTE: This play is for turf OR dirt TOP SPOT: (2)PRIVATE CHEF 2ND SPOT(TURF): (1)Fantastic Spain (7)Legal Logic (9)Bat Mobile 2ND SPOT(DIRT): (3)Direct Male (4)Sigfreto (7)Legal Logic 3RD SPOT: ALL (10 horse field) $1 TRIFECTA TICKET (TURF): 2 / 1-7-9 / ALL = $24 --- OR --- $1 TRIFECTA TICKET (DIRT): 2 / 3-4-7 / ALL = $24 PRIVATE CHEF burst onto the scene in 2003 with impressive wins in his first two starts, including a score in the G3 Will Rogers in his first route and turf try. He showed great versatility when going from a debut win in a dirt sprint to a graded stakes win in a turf route, but unfortunately he was hurt in his third start and missed more than a year at the track. He returned from the long hiatus Nov 11 and showed surprising speed to open up a big lead in a paceless field. He led to deep stretch that day and only lost by 3/4 length in a race he clearly needed. He's been working forwardly since then and can return to his best form second time back. He handles either surface and should also revert to his late-running style. He has a devastating late kick, which was on display when he got his final quarter mile in about :22-2/5 in his stakes win, and he should get an honest pace to rally into today. SANTA ANITA PICK SIX RACES 5-10 RACE 5: (4)A TO THE Z RACE 6: (1)House Of Fortune (3)Dream Of Summer (5)Yearly Report RACE 7: (2)PRIVATE CHEF RACE 8: (8)BRAVE CHARMER RACE 9(T): (1)Witness This (4)Shadow Of Illinois (8)The Griff (9)Head Of The House RACE 9(D): (3)Roi Charmant (6)Capitano (8)The Griff (10)Saint Buddy RACE 10: (3)Latin Luminosa (10)Apolla ALTERNATE SELECTIONS: In case of scratches, the following would be the suggested horse to use in each race as a substitute: RACE 5: (8)G P Fleet RACE 6: (2)Alphabet Kisses RACE 7: (9)Bat Mobile (turf) or (4)Sigfreto (dirt) RACE 8: (5)Freeholder RACE 9: None RACE 10: (6)House Of Light $2 Pick Six Ticket: 4 / 1-3-5 / 2 / 8 / 1-4-8-9 (or 3-6-8-10) / 3-10 = $48 I've constructed a basic $48 suggested ticket for those interested. If you choose to play, the only suggestion is that you NOT play above your own level of comfort. There is NO CARRYOVER today. *********************************************************************** * PLEASE NOTE * This Pick 3 / Pick 6 Sheet will be available Wednesdays through Sundays by 8 A.M. Eastern time. It will also be published on certain Mondays or Tuesdays when California and/or New York has special racing cards on those days. Also, due to the nature of this report, significant scratches may render several of the plays useless from time to time. However, if TWO OR MORE of the sheet's plays are COMPLETELY wiped out due to scratches, email me at the address below, and you can receive a Pick 3 sheet FREE of charge directly from me, The for any date you desire in the next 5 publication dates. DO NOT CONTACT BRIS for a free sheet in these circumstances. Also, you must email me within TWO days to take advantage of this free offer, even though you can defer receipt of your free sheet for several days after that. *** EVERY EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE NUMBERS PROVIDED. HOWEVER, PLEASE CONSULT THE OFFICIAL TRACK PROGRAM TO CONFIRM THEM BEFORE WAGERING. ***