Del Mar Race Course selections - Michael Nunamaker
Del Mar Race Course Saturday September 4, 2010
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 MAGNIFICENT BLEND 3-1 74 91 0.00
4 SELF INSURED 5-1 72 88 0.91
3 AFLEET DEAL 5-1 76 90 0.97
2 CAPT. SPARROW 7-1 72 89 1.53
1 U. C. MERCED TWO 9-1 80 91 2.13
Commentary
MAGNIFICENT BLEND Three consecutive good finishes.
SELF INSURED Slight speed advantage. Was closer to the lead in last.
AFLEET DEAL Looks to have an early speed advantage.
CAPT. SPARROW Very impressive workouts. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
U. C. MERCED TWO Modest pace advantage. Huge class drop should help.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=7664 W%=35.4 Net=1.82 Net4+=2.52
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 TROPIC STORM 9-2 83 101 0.00
4 AGGIE ENGINEER 5-1 78 88 0.32
6 INFORMED 5-1 84 86 0.32
1 SPURRIER 6-1 75 83 0.58
1 RED DOOR DRIVE 7-1 81 88 0.94
2 UNUSUAL SUSPECT 8-1 87 92 1.04
3 LOW GEAR POWER 12-1 79 86 2.05
Commentary
TROPIC STORM Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
AGGIE ENGINEER Slight back speed advantage. I like the workouts. Three consecutive good finishes.
INFORMED Slight speed advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. Huge class drop should help.
SPURRIER Long recent workout is a good sign.
RED DOOR DRIVE Speed improved in last outing.
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=2835 W%=36.4 Net=1.96 Net4+=2.00
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 DAZZLING DISPLAY 1-1 78 93 0.00
1 TIZ THE ROUTE 4-1 72 86 4.04
4 TALES IN EXCESS 10-1 no starts 6.45
6 MISS RADIANCE 15-1 no starts 7.13
5 ZAZU 18-1 no starts 7.57
Commentary
DAZZLING DISPLAY Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
TALES IN EXCESS A well worked out horse.
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 DEPUTY MAX 7-2 75 88 0.00
5 SPRING FORTH 7-2 75 82 0.12
2 SEATTLE RULER 7-1 81 92 1.41
8 VERY FAIR 8-1 72 83 1.67
7 SEBASTIAN FLYTE (GB) 9-1 44 0 1.95
Commentary
DEPUTY MAX Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
SPRING FORTH The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
SEATTLE RULER Big pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
VERY FAIR Looks to have an early speed advantage.
SEBASTIAN FLYTE (GB) Slight speed advantage. Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
10 CAN'T TOPPER 5-2 82 96 0.00
3 SEEDLESS 5-1 76 90 1.73
2 COSMIC ANGEL 6-1 70 91 2.22
8 REAL HOUSEWIFE 8-1 75 88 2.67
5 SCRATCHTHEMOON 13-1 70 87 3.73
Commentary
CAN'T TOPPER Big pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Slight back speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
SEEDLESS Highest earnings per start at today's distance.
COSMIC ANGEL Class drop should help.
REAL HOUSEWIFE Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
SCRATCHTHEMOON Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=2835 W%=36.4 Net=1.96 Net4+=2.00
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 MAY DAY ROSE 1-1 80 95 0.00
4 HEY MARIA 5-1 77 91 4.95
8 WEEKEND PARTY 9-1 no starts 6.10
5 RIVER'S MAMBO 19-1 no starts 7.76
6 BORN LUCKY 20-1 no starts 8.01
Commentary
MAY DAY ROSE Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed advantage.
WEEKEND PARTY Long recent workout is a good sign.
RIVER'S MAMBO Long recent workout is a good sign.
BORN LUCKY A well worked out horse.
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=2167 W%=27.2 Net=1.95 Net4+=2.65
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 DREAMED TO DREAM 4-1 67 79 0.00
2 SALTY FRIES 4-1 76 88 0.13
9 PULPIT MAGIC 5-1 76 86 0.40
4 SKY CHANT 5-1 76 88 0.54
6 L'ENCHANTERESSE (IRE) 8-1 76 88 1.36
Commentary
DREAMED TO DREAM Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
SALTY FRIES No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Bid but hung in last. Huge class drop should help.
PULPIT MAGIC Slight back speed advantage.
SKY CHANT Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
L'ENCHANTERESSE (IRE) Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=1182 W%=40.9 Net=2.08 Net4+=2.88
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 SUGARINTHEMORNING 3-1 77 92 0.00
2 WICKEDLY PERFECT 7-2 80 96 0.37
10 A Z WARRIOR 9-2 78 94 0.96
1 SHE'LL HEIR 10-1 77 88 2.52
7 AVID 10-1 78 93 2.86
12 IZSHELEGAL 26-1 75 90 4.42
3 TELL A KELLY 40-1 72 86 5.02
4 RIGHTEOUS RENEE 47-1 71 88 5.25
9 GONE REBEL 62-1 75 86 5.64
8 RIGOLETTA 103-1 73 90 6.39
Commentary
SUGARINTHEMORNING Slight speed advantage. Huge class raise will be hard.
WICKEDLY PERFECT Modest pace advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
A Z WARRIOR You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
SHE'LL HEIR No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
AVID You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Huge class raise will be hard.
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 DETAILS R SKETCHY 2-1 78 94 0.00
1 GALLATIN'S RUN 4-1 79 92 1.26
8 USURP 9-1 79 96 2.89
4 STREAKIN' MOHICAN 9-1 84 91 2.99
3 DAPPER GENE 14-1 77 88 3.75
Commentary
DETAILS R SKETCHY Highest earnings per start at today's track.
GALLATIN'S RUN Slight speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
USURP Modest back speed advantage. Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it.
STREAKIN' MOHICAN Big pace advantage. A well worked out horse.
DAPPER GENE Showed surprise early speed in last.
Race #10
Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 MAGIC LANTERN (GB) 5-2 71 86 0.00
8 SNOVEMBER 9-2 77 87 1.24
2 DANCINCONESTRELLAS 7-1 65 79 2.11
3 FORTYFIVEWITHRUBY 8-1 69 80 2.48
1 PRINCESS BEAU K 8-1 76 87 2.57
Commentary
MAGIC LANTERN (GB) Slight speed advantage. Huge back speed advantage.
SNOVEMBER Modest pace advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign.
DANCINCONESTRELLAS You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
FORTYFIVEWITHRUBY Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
PRINCESS BEAU K Three consecutive good finishes.
Best Bet of the day
Race 6 MAY DAY ROSE
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.