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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 22, 2009 by Dick Powell More than any of us "professionals" will ever admit, the betting public often times gets it right. In Saturday's Preakness S. (G1), the betting public made RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) a strong 9-5 favorite with the second choice at 6-1. They also ignored all the negative analysis of MINE THAT BIRD's (Birdstone) upset win of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and made him a close third-choice at 66-10. Rachel Alexandra figured to be the favorite off her spectacular record-setting 20 1/4-length win in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but for most of the early betting she was barely above even money. The public could not bet her enough and she certainly qualified as the kind of overbet favorite that we always tell you to avoid. Throughout the day, Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) and Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy) were at high single-digit odds. The unusual part of Saturday's Preakness betting was how much money the longshots were taking. It was like the public loved Rachel Alexandra, had little confidence in the other logical contenders and were betting the longshots more than expected. Even with Rachel Alexandra being overbet, the longest price on the board was 25-1 as four horses were grouped at the bottom between 23-1 and 25-1. Usually, an overbet favorite consumes so much betting money that the longshots are underbet but it was the reverse on Saturday. Horses like Luv Gov (Ten Most Wanted), Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus) and Tone It Down (Medaglia d'Oro) were all 50-1 on the morning line and they all went off at half the expected price. Mine That Bird, with new jockey Mike Smith aboard, was the third choice in the wagering right behind Pioneerof the Nile. Breaking from post two, he figured to get a strong pace up front to run behind and make his one, big run. And, as the betting public predicted, he did. Breaking from post 13, Calvin Borel had little choice but to send Rachel Alexandra from the gate. Johnny Velazquez aboard Big Drama (Montbrook) broke alertly from post 1 and stayed about three paths off the rail going into the first turn, which forced Borel and Rachel Alexandra farther out. Friesan Fire got away third and, for some unknown reason, Garrett Gomez declined to drop in behind to save ground and wound up pressing a fast pace from the middle of the track. It was as if they decided that he doesn't want dirt kicked in his face and made every effort to stay in the clear. For me, the Preakness was over in less than a quarter of a mile. Rachel Alexandra put relentless pressure on Big Drama down the backstretch as they sped through a first half in 46.71. The track was playing a bit slow at this point in the day as expected thunderstorms never materialized and the Pimlico racing surface was not watered as much as it would have normally been. Borel claimed after the race that his filly was not handling the track all that well but she was a sight to behold flying into the far turn. This was going to be a race where she would not get any time to rest and yet she still maintained her momentum. Big Drama began to falter around the far turn and Papa Clem (Smart Strike) was making a threatening move on the inside. Pioneerof the Nile loomed on the far outside but you could see that Gomez was already asking him for run. From the back of the pack, Mine That Bird began to pick up horses as Smith tried to weave his way through tiring horses. Eibar Coa had Musket Man (Yonaguska) on the rail so Smith had to go farther out than he wanted with the Derby winner. Borel and Rachel Alexandra broke the race open and had a four length lead with a furlong to go. It looked like Musket Man would be second but Mine That Bird surged late to grab the place spot. The last three-sixteenths of a mile were run in a pokey 19.26 as the fast pace and tiring track took its toll late. For Rachel Alexandra, it was a blistering performance by a filly that showed that she can run the socks off the boys. This was not an easy race for her as many factors were not in her favor but she still had a three-length lead with a hundred yards to go. For Jess Jackson, it was vindication of his decision to buy her for big money off her Oaks victory and make a major, midstream change of direction to run her last Saturday. Racing is all about weighing risks and rewards and Jackson took a big risk by entering her in this spot. His reward is a performance by a filly that ran one of the all-time great races by a female against males in North America with more to come. One risk that Jackson did not take was changing riders as he kept Borel aboard. His greatest rides might have come from behind, passing horses on the inside, but on Saturday Borel showed he's more than a one-trick pony. He broke her alertly, used her natural speed to get a stalking position in the clear and kept up the pressure. Rather than waiting too long, he broke the race wide open and used her class and stride to get her home. Borel rides with the utmost confidence in Rachel Alexandra's ability and it shows, which is why he couldn't contain himself in prior races when he was celebrating in the stretch. He knew how much horse he had underneath him when winning easily and Saturday he had to go to the well and use some of that ability to get her home. Rachel Alexandra paid $5.60 to win for her legion of backers. For the many that thought that Mine That Bird's Derby win was not a fluke, the exacta between those two paid a generous $39.20 with the favorite over the third choice. Musket Man showed that his Derby third was legitimate and he came back with another third in the Preakness and completed a $216.20 trifecta. Unlike the Derby, when most bettors were licking their wounds the next day, this year's Preakness produced a very satisfactory result for the betting public.
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