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COMMENTARY

FEBRUARY 12, 2013

The race I most want to see & Derby futures

by Ed DeRosa

(Ed picks up the thought from his Saturday night tweet: "Fun conversation today... what racing is all about. Imagine if superstars like PoE & AK butted heads every week?" 10:01 PM - 09 Feb 13.)

Not since Rachel Alexandra-Zenyatta have two horses ignited conversation like the way Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom did following their battle in the Kitten's Joy Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap Championship.

Pat Cummings @DubaiRaceNight tweeted: "I find nothing sad about this being Animal Kingdom's last run in the US - taking on the world is a thrilling proposition, need more to do it" (9:04 PM - 09 Feb 13).

Both Animal Kingdom & Point of Entry could make their next starts in Dubai, albeit in different races w/ Animal Kingdom likely for the Dubai World Cup on Tapeta Footings, and Point of Entry nominated to the Dubai Sheema Classic on turf.

I don't necessarily share Pat's zest for seeing U.S.-based animals having an international campaign, but seeing Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom square off again in a race like the Prince of Wales over 1 1/4 miles at Royal Ascot would be a lot of fun. Throw in Little Mike and Horse of the Year and three-time champion Wise Dan, and wouldn't it be something if Americans had the superfecta at Royal Ascot?

But seeing those four in the same gate would be amazing regardless of locale, and any of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes, Dixie Stakes, or Manhattan Handicap would be a fun setting for such a match up since all three of those races are on classic undercards.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Per Mike Welsch, Point of Entry will not point toward Dubai and instead have what appears to be a more domestic campaign with the Arlington Million and Breeders' Cup Turf being major summer and fall goals, respectively. I bet a Phipps horse who won those two races plus another Grade 1 a la Little Mike would be champion.

Anyway, doesn't sound as if we'll see Animal Kingdom take on any of his conquerors (Wise Dan and Point of Entry) again, but he is taking on the world, and that's definitely something. 

Following up on my future wager action, I had to call an audible late Sunday afternoon because seven horses at 15-to-1 or less plus the field at 8-to-5 meant some decent prices elsewhere that I just couldn't ignore. I ended up playing eight different horses to win at $20 apiece to bring my total Kentucky Derby investment to $200 with returns ranging from 3-to-2 to 11-to-1 on the 12 horses I've taken a position on.

2013 Future Wagers: All bets

Horse   Price   Investment   Return
Forty Tales   175   $10.00   $1,750.00
Itsmyluckyday   25   $20.00   $500.00
Winning Cause   175   $5.00   $875.00
Park City   150   $5.00   $750.00
Capo Bastone   58   $20.00   $1,160.00
Code West   56   $20.00   $1,120.00
Delhomme   55.6   $20.00   $1,112.00
Frac Daddy   68.5   $20.00   $1,370.00
Mylute   123.6   $20.00   $2,472.00
Overanalyze   33.6   $20.00   $672.00
Super Ninety Nine   47.6   $20.00   $952.00
Vyjack   49.9   $20.00   $998.00
Total:       $200    

I passed on the exacta pool because I wasn't in a position to look closely at the will pays and didn't want to play "just because." In retrospect, probably would have been worth a few shekels to key box the field with the aforementioned eight horses I bet to win, but there'll be time enough for counting when the dealing's done. I mean, I still have two pools and the race itself to put myself in a more favorable position.

The final 10-point-to-the-winner Derby prep races are this weekend with the El Camino Real Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields and Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park. Then things really get interesting with the 50-point races since I project a win there almost certainly guarantees a spot in the Derby gate if more than 20 enter.


 

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